Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South America

This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to natural variability.     

Identification of arid phases during the last 50 cal. ka BP from the Fuentillejo maar‐lacustrine record (Campo de Calatrava Volcanic Field,Spain)

Geochemical (element analysis, molecular analysis of organic compounds), physical, palynological, mineralogical and sedimentary facies analysis were performed to characterise the sedimentary record in Fuentillejo maar‐lake in the Central Spanish Volcanic Field of Campo de Calatrava, in order to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic processes which controlled vegetation patterns and deposition of different sedimentary facies. The upper 20 m of core FUENT‐1 show variations in clastic input, water chemistry, vegetation and organic fraction sources in the lake throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. The temporal framework provided by ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry dating allows assigning the sequence to the last 50 cal. ka BP. Arid phases identified in the FUENT‐1 sequence are correlated to Heinrich events (HE) and to stadials of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) cycles. Siliciclastic facies with high magnetic susceptibility values, high Juniperus pollen content, a low Paq index (aquatic macrophysics proxy index), a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkanes are indicative of arid and colder climatic events related to HE 2, HE 1 and the Younger Dryas (YD). Similar short cold and arid phases during the Holocene were identified at 9.2–8.6, 7.5–7 and 5.5–5 cal. ka BP. In dolomite–mud facies, the pollen data show an increase in the herbs component, mainly – Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra – steppe taxa; a low Paq index, a decrease in the relative percentage of the n‐C₂₇ alkane and an increase in the n‐C₃₁ alkane are also observed. This facies was probably the result of lower lake levels and more saline–alkaline conditions, which can be interpreted as linked to arid–warm periods. These warm and arid phases were more frequent during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the interstadials of MIS 2. HE 4, HE 2, HE 1 and the YD in core FUENT‐1 were immediately followed by increases of warm steppe pollen assemblages that document rapid warming similar to the D/O cycles but do not imply increasing humidity in the area. Fuentillejo hydrology is controlled by changes in the atmospheric and oceanic systems that operated on the North Atlantic region at millennial scale during the last 50 cal. ka BP. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Status of the Connection between Unidentified Egret Sources and Supernova Remnants: The Case of Cta 1

In this paper we briefly comment on the observational status of the possible physical association between unidentified EGRET sources and supernova remnants (SNRs) in our Galaxy. We draw upon recent results presented in the review by Torres et al. (2003), concerning molecular gas in the vicinity of all 19 SNRs found to be positionally coincident with EGRET sources at low Galactic latitudes. In addition, we present new results regarding the supernova remnant CTA 1. Our findings disfavor the possibility of a physical connection with the nearby (in projection) EGRET source. There remains possible, however, that the compact object produced in the supernova explosion be related with the observed γ-ray flux.     

A review of the Tagus river tufa deposits (central Spain): age and palaeoenvironmental record

Here we determined the aminostratigraphy and aminochronology of tufa deposits located in central Spain associated with the Tagus river and some of its tributaries (the Henares, Dulce, Cifuentes, Ruguilla, Trabaque, Escabas and Guadiela rivers). We used aspartic acid and glutamic acid racemization ratios obtained from the ostracod Herpetocypris reptans. Tufa accumulations were found to be of different origins; those in the Henares, Cifuentes and Ruguilla rivers are of paludal origin, while those in the Dulce and Tagus rivers are of fluvial origin. A generally good correspondence was found between the age of the deposits and the position of the terraces above the current thalweg. However, the geomorphological evolution of the Henares, Cifuentes and Ruguilla rivers (infilling of pre-existing valleys) has produced deposits of distinct ages at the same elevation above the current river thalweg, and sometimes, older tufas are located below younger ones.We distinguished eight main tufa-deposition episodes. These occurred predominantly during even Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS), at 406 ± 90 (MIS 11), 264 ± 68 (MIS 7e), 189 ± 40 (MIS 7a), 130 ± 27 (MIS 6-5e), 101 ± 25 (MIS 5c), 32 ± 10 (MIS 3), 14 ± 4 (MIS 1), and 6 ± 2 (MIS 1) ka. These results are in agreement with the dating of similar deposits from nearby areas and other zones of Spain and Europe. The tufa stable-isotope compositions were similar to other examples in central and southern Spain and their plot falls in the same field as other lowland European stream tufas. Oxygen stable isotopes were influenced mainly by temperature and rainfall. The δ¹³C values indicated a major effect of soil-derived carbon rather than carbon from the catchment area, but moderated in each tributary by evaporation, flow regime and biological effects (photosynthesis).     

The light curve of the companion to PSR B1957+20

We present a new analysis of the light curve for the secondary star in the eclipsing binary millisecond pulsar system PSR B1957+20. Combining previous data and new data points at minimum from the Hubble Space Telescope , we have 100 per cent coverage in the R -band. We also have a number of new K _s-band data points, which we use to constrain the infrared magnitude of the system. We model this with the eclipsing light-curve (ELC) code. From the modelling with the ELC code we obtain colour information about the secondary at minimum light in BVRI and K . For our best-fitting model we are able to constrain the system inclination to 65°± 2° for pulsar masses ranging from 1.3 to  1.9  M_⊙  . The pulsar mass is unconstrained. We also find that the secondary star is not filling its Roche lobe. The temperature of the unirradiated side of the companion is in agreement with previous estimates and we find that the observed temperature gradient across the secondary star is physically sustainable.     

What happens to the ocean surface gravity waves when ENSO and MJO phases combine during the extended boreal winter?

The safety of vulnerable coastal and offshore infrastructures requires an in-depth understanding of wave variability and climate drivers. We investigate the association of significant wave height (Hs) and peak wave period (Tp) with the co-occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) at the global scale. We calculate composites of daily anomalies in modelled Hs, Tp, and surface wind for periods of ENSO–MJO phase combinations. Calculations spanned November–March seasons over the period 1979–2018. Wave anomalies are widespread across the world’s oceans, with remarkable strength during several ENSO–MJO phase combinations, demonstrating strong tropic–tropic and tropic-extratropic teleconnections. Positive Hs anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 3, and in the Indian Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 4. Positive Tp anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during La Niña–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 1, and in the Indian Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8. In the Southern Ocean, the strongest Hs anomalies occur during El Niño–MJO phase 8, whereas in the Maritime Continent, they appear during ENSO-neutral-MJO phases 5–6. Despite previous studies finding low correlations of ENSO indices with wave parameters in the North Atlantic, our results suggest that ENSO-related conditions play a significant role in the area when combined with certain MJO-related conditions. This study also reveals that the wave anomalies associated with ENSO–MJO phase combinations can be twice as strong as those found in previous work, related only to the MJO. Therefore, considering multiple concurrent climate patterns in the analysis of wave anomalies is essential to developing more reliable coastal management plans.     

Polarimetric formulation of the visibility function equation including cross-polar antenna patterns

The European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission will be the first one using two-dimensional aperture synthesis radiometry for Earth observation. This study presents the formulation that relates instrument observables and brightness temperature maps including cross-polar antenna voltage patterns, which may be also different from element to element. Finally, the radiometric accuracy degradation if cross-polar patterns are neglected in the image reconstruction is studied.     

Geology and geophysics as successful tools in the discovery of the Lagoa Salgada Orebody (Sado Tertiary Basin – Iberian Pyrite Belt), Grândola, Portugal

Gravimetry was the main exploration method used in this high risk area to the north of the Grândola fault, in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB). It showed several targets, among which the Valverde-Lagoa Salgada area stood out. Here, in August 1992, a polymetallic massive sulphide orebody was found, named Lagoa Salgada. According to the geological characteristics of the area and to the nature of the surveyed targets, other exploration techniques were used, namely: geology, magnetometry, resistivity, electrical sounding, magneto-telluric, seismic and mechanical drilling. The deposit was found under a Tertiary cover, 128?m in depth, complete with a 15?m thick gossan, caused by paleoalteration, with a supergene enrichment zone. This gossan gave way to massive sulphides, with intersections, at times, exceeding 60?m. They are limited towards the footwall by an important fault with strong associated kaolinization, which is interpreted as a reverse fault, placed on the inverse limb of an anticlinal structure. Throughout the deposit, the chemical composition of the mineralization showed great variation reaching significant values of Zn, Pb, Sn, Cu, As, Hg, Sb, Cd, Au and Ag. In the initial phase the deposit has an estimated tonnage of 5?Mt. It is related to a large gravity anomaly with the general orientation NW-SE, which was investigated by 15 boreholes made by the Instituto Geológico e Mineiro. The drilling cut an important volcanic centre of an acid to intermediate nature, around which intense hydrothermal activity was associated with contemporaneous sulphide mineralization. The gravity anomaly has two nuclei, a NW and a central one, about 450?m apart, where a pyrite orebody with polymetallic sulphides and stockwork sulphide mineralization are developed. This discovery led to an extensive exploration project that confirmed the mining potentialities of the NW sector of the IPB, to the north of Grândola fault, where previously no polymetallic sulphide occurrences were known.     

Optical Classification of IRAS Post-AGB Candidates

We present the first results of a survey carried out on a sample of optically bright post-AGB candidates selected from the IRAS Point Source Catalogue, many of them previously unidentified in the literature. The selection criteria are based on their characteristic far infrared colours. Low resolution spectroscopy of more than 150 sources has been obtained during 6 years. Our preliminary analysis confirms that most of the candidates observed are true post-AGB stars, some of them still strongly reddened. Some young planetary nebulae, a few young stellar objects and active galactic nuclei are also present in the sample. The distribution of post-AGB stars with different spectral types in the IRAS two-colour diagram and its evolutionary implications are briefly discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.