Ocean and atmosphere changes in the Caribbean Sea during the twenty-first century using CMIP5 models

Ocean Dynamics - Coastal communities around the Caribbean Sea are vulnerable to global warming impacts, partly because of constraints on their adaptive capacity. We use three climate models...     

Biogenic emissions from Pinus halepensis: a typical species of the Mediterranean area

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions by vegetation present in the Mediterranean area are not well known. They may contribute with anthropogenic VOC emissions to the tropospheric ozone formation that reaches important level in the European Mediterranean region. The present work, carried out as part of the European ESCOMPTE project «fiEld experimentS to COnstrain Models of atmospheric Pollution and Transport of Emissions», adds a new contribution to the inventory of the main natural hydrocarbons sources likely to participate in the ozone production. The corresponding measurement campaign was conducted in La Barben, a site close to Marseilles (France), with the aim to quantify the terpenic emission pattern and the behaviour of Pinus halepensis, an important Mediterranean species slightly studied.The determination of biogenic emissions from P. halepensis was done by the enclosure of an intact branch in a Teflon cuvette. Main emitted monoterpenes were β trans-ocimene and linalool. The total monoterpenic emission rates thus recorded were found to reach maximum values around 30 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹. The normalized emission rates calculated at 30 °C and 1000 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ with Guenther's algorithm was 14.76, 8.65 and 4.05 μg g_{dry weight}⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively, for the total monoterpenes, β trans-ocimene and linalool.     

A global analysis of austral summer ocean wave variability during SAM–ENSO phase combinations

Anticipating and mitigating wave-related hazards rely heavily on understanding wave variability drivers. Here, we describe wave conditions related to concurrent Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases during the austral summer. To identify such conditions, significant wave height (Hs) and peak wave period (Tp) daily anomalies were composited during different SAM–ENSO phase combinations over the last four decades (1979–2018). Surface wind anomalies were also composited to assist in the interpretation of wave conditions. The composites show significant wave variability across all ocean basins and in several semi-enclosed seas throughout the different SAM–ENSO phase combinations. The Southern, Indian, and Pacific Oceans generally experience the strongest Tp anomalies during combinations of SAM phases with El Niño, and the weakest Tp anomalies during combinations of SAM phases with La Niña. The anomalously large waves observed in the south-western Pacific, Tasman Sea, and the Southern Ocean, previously ascribed to ENSO conditions, seem to be instead associated with the SAM variability. SAM-related atmospheric conditions are found to be able to modulate the intensity of ENSO-related winds over the South China Sea, which, in turn, alter the magnitude of waves in that region. These and other wave anomaly structures described here, especially those contrasting the behaviour expected for a given ENSO phase, such as the one found along the California coast, stress the importance of understanding relationships between wave parameters and climate patterns interactions.     

Models for Support and Information Effects: A Comparative Study

The recoverable reserves in an ore deposit depend on several factors, in particular the size of the selective mining units (support effect) and the misclassifications when sending these units to mill or dump according to their estimated grade (information effect). Both effects imply a loss of selectivity and have to be correctly forecasted. In this work, several models are reviewed and applied to a synthetic ore deposit characterized by a highly skewed grade histogram and a spatial connectivity of high grades. The affine correction, mosaic correction, and discrete Gaussian model are compared when assessing the global recoverable reserves, whereas local estimations are performed by indicator kriging with affine correction, bigaussian disjunctive kriging, and multigaussian conditional expectation. Despite their convenience and simplicity, distribution-free methods like affine correction or indicator kriging have a poorer accuracy than the other methods. In the global framework, the discrete Gaussian model is a better alternative and is based on mild assumptions. Local estimations are not accurate and may be improved by resorting to a more suitable parametric model or to conditional simulations.     

Effects on runoff caused by changes in land cover in a Brazilian southeast basin: evaluation by HEC-HMS and HEC-GEOHMS

The Southeast Region of Brazil has undergone major changes in land cover, especially after the eighteenth century. It is currently the most populous region of the country, highly urbanized, with a high degree of industrial and agricultural development. Extensive areas of native vegetation have been replaced by pastures, crops and urban areas, which have increased runoff, causing environmental, economic and social problems related to flooding. The objective of this study was to analyze effects of land cover changes in a basin with rural and urban characteristics on the flow of its main river. Hydrological data, orbital images, soils and topographical maps were used for this purpose. Based on the land cover maps for the years of 1989, 2001 and 2015, and on the hydrological modeling performed using the Hec-HMS 4.1 software, scenarios were simulated and showed that the land cover changes in this basin significantly affect the flow behavior of the main river. The simulated runoff was calibrated using the data observed in the field during 2001, and validation was performed using data from 1989. After the calibration and validation processes, a scenario was simulated where the rainiest month of the whole series measured by the rainfall station (during December 1989) acted on the land cover of 2015. There was an increase in pasture areas and impermeable spaces in the basin, which caused a decrease in infiltration and an increase in surface runoff, and also an increase in the flow peaks and a reduction in the time of concentration. The hydrological modeling was satisfactory, since the uncertainties related to the simulation were low.     

The last major earthquakes along the Magallanes–Fagnano fault system recorded by disturbed trees (Tierra del Fuego,South America)

Forests situated above active fault zones may record hillslope evolution, thus holding information about recent seismic events. Lenga trees (Nothofagus pumilio) extend across the Magallanes–Fagnano fault system (MFFS), the active transform boundary between the South American and Scotia plates. Coseismic surface ruptures along the fault scarp tilt trees located uphill. During the interseismic period, tree growth curves the trunks. Annual tree rings from the study area show abrupt changes from concentric to asymmetric, allowing the timing of major historical earthquakes to be established. In this case, tree‐ring analysis suggests rupture on the MFFS fault scarp in 1883 ± 5 and 1941 ± 10, coinciding with the February 1, 1879 (Modified Mercalli Scale, VI) and the December 17, 1949 (Ms 7.8) earthquakes in Tierra del Fuego. Our results provide evidence that this fault system was the source of these earthquakes, which has implications for seismic hazard in the study region.