Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

Deep seismic reflection profiles across the western Barents Sea

Summary. The continental crust beneath the western Barents Sea has been acoustically imaged down to Moho depths in a large scale deep seismic reflection experiment. A first-order pattern of crustal reflectivity has been established and the thickness of the crust determined. A number of features with important implications for the tectonics of the area have been discovered. The results are presented in the form of two transects.     

The acoustic signature of fluid flow in complex porous media

Effective medium approximations for the frequency-dependent and complex-valued effective stiffness tensors of cracked/porous rocks with multiple solid constituents are developed on the basis of the T-matrix approach (based on integral equation methods for quasi-static composites), the elastic–viscoelastic correspondence principle, and a unified treatment of the local and global flow mechanisms, which is consistent with the principle of fluid mass conservation. The main advantage of using the T-matrix approach, rather than the first-order approach of Eshelby or the second-order approach of Hudson, is that it produces physically plausible results even when the volume concentrations of inclusions or cavities are no longer small. The new formulae, which operates with an arbitrary homogeneous (anisotropic) reference medium and contains terms of all order in the volume concentrations of solid particles and communicating cavities, take explicitly account of inclusion shape and spatial distribution independently. We show analytically that an expansion of the T-matrix formulae to first order in the volume concentration of cavities (in agreement with the dilute estimate of Eshelby) has the correct dependence on the properties of the saturating fluid, in the sense that it is consistent with the Brown–Korringa relation, when the frequency is sufficiently low. We present numerical results for the (anisotropic) effective viscoelastic properties of a cracked permeable medium with finite storage porosity, indicating that the complete T-matrix formulae (including the higher-order terms) are generally consistent with the Brown–Korringa relation, at least if we assume the spatial distribution of cavities to be the same for all cavity pairs. We have found an efficient way to treat statistical correlations in the shapes and orientations of the communicating cavities, and also obtained a reasonable match between theoretical predictions (based on a dual porosity model for quartz–clay mixtures, involving relatively flat clay-related pores and more rounded quartz-related pores) and laboratory results for the ultrasonic velocity and attenuation spectra of a suite of typical reservoir rocks.     

New method of quantitatively describing drainage areas

The aim was to introduce a new method, the DAZ method (drainage area zonation), to quantify environmental parameters, such as bedrocks, soil type, and land use in drainage areas. The work was carried out within the framework of the Swedish project Liming—mercury. Two important points in the project are that there are quantifiable relationships between the character of the drainage area and the lake and that several limnological and morphometric parameters may have an impact on the Hg content in fish. The DAZ method accounts for the fact that, for example, a certain soil type does not have an even distribution in the whole drainage area. To get a simple yet relevant measure of the influence of, for example, soil type on the lake character, the drainage areas were divided into zones using a special transparent paper placed on the map. The method gives normalized values depending on: (1) distance between the object and the given lake, (2) the main direction of water flow in the drainage area, and (3) the area of the environmental parameter (for example, area of bedrock). In the DAZ method, dot counting is used for determination of area. The dot-counting method has been compared with other methods for area determination (planimeter and square counting). Dot counting is the fastest and the counting of squares the most time consuming. The statistical reliabilities of the dot method and the planimeter method were compared. The planimeter is best for large homogeneous objects. Dot counting, on the other hand, is very well suited for heterogeneous objects. The statistical certainty of area determination depends on size, heterogeneity, and form of the objects, as well as the time dedicated to the determination. A nomogram is also given, which illustrates the relationship between the number of counts, that is, the number of times the transparent dotted paper is put on the map and the dots counted, the error in the area determination, and the statistical reliability.     

Remedial measures against radioactive Caesium in Swedish lake fish after Chernobyl

The aim of this work is to give a summary of the work on Cs-137 in Swedish lakes carried out mainly by our group (the Liming-mercury-caesium project) between 1986 and 1990. The focus is on results from extensive field experiments carried out in 41 lakes testing various remedial measures to speed up the natural recovery of Cs-137 in lakes: Lake liming and wet land liming with primary rock lime, sedimentary rock lime and so-called mixed lime, which also contains nutrients; potash treatment and intensive fishing. Selected results: The remedies have given the intended water-chemical response. None of the methods used works effectively as cure, i.e., no rapid and clear reduction in the concentrations of radioactive caesium in fish is obtained in comparison with lakes where the waterchemical or biological conditions are not changed. In lakes with long water turnover time and with low values of, foremost, conductivity, hardness and potassium, the fish had relatively higher concentrations at the same fallout levels. The differences present between the lakes as regards the continued magnitude of the change in concentration in fish can foremost be linked to factors controlling the secondary load (i.e., the internal loading and the input from the catchment). A successful potash treatment (in oligotrophic lakes) may imply that the natural recovery will be at the most 5% faster compared to no treatment. This would give quite positive implications in the long run since the ecological half-life for Cs-137 in pike (the top predator in these lake types) is very long. The time interval between the remedies and the latest fish analyses (about 2 years on average) is not sufficient to obtain (statistically) clear-cut results on these the small effects of the remedies. A longer time series of data is required for this.