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41.
Stochastic Structural Modeling 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Lars Holden Petter Mostad Bjørn Fredrik Nielsen Jon Gjerde Chris Townsend Signe Ottesen 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):899-914
A consistent stochastic model for faults and horizons is described. The faults are represented as a parametric invertible deformation operator. The faults may truncate each other. The horizons are modeled as correlated Gaussian fields and are represented in a grid. Petrophysical variables may be modeled in a reservoir before faulting in order to describe the juxtaposition effect of the faulting. It is possible to condition the realization on petrophysics, horizons, and fault plane observations in wells in addition to seismic data. The transmissibility in the fault plane may also be included in the model. Four different methods to integrate the fault and horizon models in a common model is described. The method is illustrated on an example from a real petroleum field with 18 interpreted faults that are handled stochastically. 相似文献
42.
L. Kristensen C. E. Andersen H. E. Jørgensen P. Kirkegaard K. Pilegaard 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,27(3):249-269
We have discussed the behavior of a non-conserved scalar in the stationary, horizontally homogeneous, neutral surface-flux layer and, on the basis of conventional second-order closure, derived analytic expressions for flux and for mean concentration of a gas, subjected to a first-order removal process. The analytic flux solution showed a clear deviation from the constant flux, characterizing a conserved scalar in the surface-flux layer. It decreases with height and is reduced by an order of magnitude of the surface flux at a height equal to about the typical mean distance a molecule can travel before destruction. The predicted mean concentration profile, however, shows only a small deviation from the logarithmic behavior of a conserved scalar. The solution is consistent with assuming a flux-gradient relationship with a turbulent diffusivity corrected by the Damköhler ratio, the ratio of a characteristic turbulent time scale and the scalar mean lifetime. We show that if we use only first-order closure and neglect the effect of the Damköhler ratio on the turbulent diffusivity we obtain another analytic solution for the profiles of the flux and the mean concentration which, from an experimental point of view, is indistinguishable from the first analytic solution. We have discussed two cases where the model should apply, namely NO which, by night, is irreversibly destroyed by interaction with mainly O3 and the radioactive 220Rn. Only in the last case was it possible to find data to shed light on the validity of our predictions. The agreement seemed such that a falsification of our model was impossible. It is shown how the model can be used to predict the surface flux of 220Rn from measured concentration profiles. 相似文献
43.
Nils-Otto Kitterrød Lars Gottschalk 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):459-482
Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function.
This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients
from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance
model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns
out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of
eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the
2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance
function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields
with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial
interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the
predefined covariance functions are evaluated. 相似文献
44.
A high resolution (3–8 km grid), 3D numerical ocean model of the West Caribbean Sea (WCS) is used to investigate the variability
and the forcing of flows near the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS) which runs along the coasts of Mexico, Belize,
Guatemala and Honduras. Mesoscale variations in velocity and temperature along the reef were found in seasonal model simulations
and in observations; these variations are associated with meandering of the Caribbean current (CC) and the propagation of
Caribbean eddies. Diagnostic calculations and a simple assimilation technique are combined to infer the dynamically adjusted
flow associated with particular eddies. The results demonstrate that when a cyclonic eddy (negative sea surface height anomaly
(SSHA)) is found near the MBRS the CC shifts offshore, the cyclonic circulation in the Gulf of Honduras (GOH) intensifies,
and a strong southward flow results along the reef. However, when an anticyclonic eddy (positive SSHA) is found near the reef,
the CC moves onshore and the flow is predominantly westward across the reef. The model results help to explain how drifters
are able to propagate in a direction opposite to the mean circulation when eddies cause a reversal of the coastal circulation.
The effect of including the Meso-American Lagoon west of the Belize Reef in the model topography was also investigated, to
show the importance of having accurate coastal topography in determining the variations of transports across the MBRS. The
variations found in transports across the MBRS (on seasonal and mesoscale time scales) may have important consequences for
biological activities along the reef such as spawning aggregations; better understanding the nature of these variations will
help ongoing efforts in coral reef conservation and maintaining the health of the ecosystem in the region. 相似文献
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48.
Asbjørn Aaheim Helene Amundsen Therese Dokken Taoyuan Wei 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):959-968
This paper evaluates the impacts of climate change to European economies under an increase in global mean temperature at +2 °C and +4 °C. It is based on a summary of conclusions from available studies of how climate change may affect various sectors of the economies in different countries. We apply a macroeconomic general equilibrium model, which integrates impacts of climate change on different activities of the economies. Agents adapt by responding to the changes in market conditions following the climatic changes, thus bringing consistency between economic behaviour and adaptation to climate change. Europe is divided into 85 sub-regions in order to capture climate variability and variations in vulnerabilities within countries. We find that the impacts in the +2 °C are moderate throughout Europe, with positive impacts on GDP in some sub-regions and negative impacts down to 0.1 per cent per year in others. At +4 °C, GDP is negatively affected throughout Europe, and most substantially in the southern parts, where it falls by up to 0.7 per cent per year in some sub-regions. We also find that climate change causes differentiations in wages across Europe, which may cause migration from southern parts of Europe to northern parts, especially to the Nordic countries. 相似文献
49.
Full-Scale Spectrum of Boundary-Layer Winds 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0