Rainfall-derived growing season characteristics for agricultural impact assessments in South Africa

Precipitation variability imposes significant pressure in areas where agricultural practice is dominated by smallholder farmers who are dependent on subsistence farming. Advances in the understanding of this variability, in both time and space, have an important role to play in increasing the resilience of agricultural systems. The need is particularly pressing in regions of the world such as the African continent, which is already affected by multiple stresses including poverty and economic and political instability. In this paper, we explore the use of generalised linear models (GLMs) for this purpose, via a case study from north-east South Africa. A GLM is used to link the local rainfall variability to large-scale climate drivers identified from previous subcontinental-scale analyses, and the ability of the resulting model to simulate precipitation features that are relevant in agricultural applications is evaluated. We focus in particular on a set of growing season indices, proposed for the investigation of intraseasonal characteristics relevant for maize production in the region. Seven indices were computed from spatially averaged daily rainfall series from nine stations in the study area. As a first attempt to use GLMs for this type of application, the results are encouraging and suggest that the models are able to reproduce a range of agriculture-relevant indices. However, further research into spatial correlation structure is recommended to improve the multisite generation of the rainfall-derived characteristics.     

Water Scarcity: Moving Beyond Indexes to Innovative Institutions

Water scarcity is a media darling often times described as a trigger of conflict in arid regions, a by‐product of human influences ranging from desertification to climate change, or a combination of natural‐ and human‐induced changes in the water cycle. A multitude of indexes have been developed over the past 20 years to define water scarcity to map the “problem” and guide international donor investment. Few indexes include groundwater within the metrics of “scarcity.” Institutional communication contributes to the recognition of local or regional water scarcity. However, evaluations that neglect groundwater resources may incorrectly define conditions as scarce. In cases where there is a perception of scarcity, the incorporation of groundwater and related storage in aquifers, political willpower, new policy tools, and niche diplomacy often results in a revised status, either reducing or even eliminating the moniker locally. Imaginative conceptualization and innovative uses of aquifers are increasingly used to overcome water scarcity.     

Timing and distribution of alluvial fan sedimentation in response to strengthening of late Holocene ENSO variability in the Sonoran Desert,southwestern Arizona,USA

The integration of geomorphic mapping, soil stratigraphy, and radiocarbon dating of alluvial deposits offers insight to the timing, magnitude, and paleoclimatic context of Holocene fan sedimentation near Yuma, Arizona. Mapping of 3400 km² indicates about 10% of the area aggraded in the late Holocene and formed regionally extensive alluvial fan and alluvial plain cut-and-fill terraces. Fan deposits have weakly developed gravelly soils and yielded a date of 3200–2950 cal yr BP from carbonized wood. Alluvial plain deposits have weakly developed buried sandy soils and provided a date of 2460–2300 cal yr BP from a terrestrial snail shell. Precipitation records were analyzed to form historical analogues to the late Holocene aggradation and to consider the role of climatic variability and extreme hydrologic events as drivers of the sedimentation. The historical precipitation record indicates numerous above-average events correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the region, but lacks any significant reactivation of alluvial fan surfaces. The timing of aggradation from 3200 to 2300 cal yr BP correlates well with other paleoclimatic proxy records in the southwestern U.S. and eastern Pacific region, which indicate an intensification of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic pattern and rapid climate change during this period.     

International viewpoint and news

The Daliao river system in China has been seriously affected by long-term intensive industrial, urban and agricultural activities. The objectives of this study were to determine the total phosphorus (TP) content and forms of phosphate in the sediments and investigate geochemical relationships between P forms and sediment mineral phases. Twenty-seven samples of surface sediments were collected and analyzed for P and major elements. Chemical forms of phosphate in the sediments were measured by sequential selective extraction method. Results indicate that TP in the sediments of the Daliao river system averaged 703 mg kg⁻¹, in the range from 206 to 1,342 mg kg⁻¹. The sediments in the tributaries and near cities contained high TP, due to discharge of municipal and industrial effluents. The distribution of phosphate in the various mineral phases followed the order: Ca-P > RES-P > RS-P > Fe-P > Al-P > S/L-P for the Hun river and Taizi river, and Ca-P > Fe-P > RES-P > RS-P > Al-P > S/L-P for the Daliao river. Fe and Ca contents in the sediments were positively correlated to Fe associated P (Fe-P and RS-P) and Ca-P, respectively. In addition, sediment organic matter, Fe and Ca contents were positively correlated to TP in the sediments. However, Al content was not correlated to Al-P or TP in the sediments. Generally, the sediments contaminated by effluents and in tidal zone contained more bioavailable P. Possible release of P from these sediments to overlying water might pose potential risk on estuarine eutrophication.     

Designing science web sites

From a scientist’s viewpoint a web site is one tool used to conduct research. From an artist’s viewpoint web sites are a form of visual composition. From a developer’s point of view a web site is a type of application. While web sites are a relatively new medium with a particular set of constraints, they do adhere to the same basic design principles that apply to other art forms. These design principles are the basic assumptions that affect the arrangement of elements within a composition. A successful design uses the principles and elements to achieve a visual goal in the composition. A web site designed for scientists has unique properties which are not shared by many other types of web sites. These properties influence the overall visual design of the web sites. Recently at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA undertook a re-design of a number of its websites. In the effort, the use of visual design principles combined with the properties of a science web site were put to the test. In all, six different web sites were designed each with a difference science focus. We describe the process used to design the web sites which involve forming teams of designers, scientists and developers. We present example pages from each design and conclude with a discussion of what was learned during the process.     

Fast data assimilation using a nonlinear Kalman filter and a model surrogate: An application to the Columbia River estuary

A fast and adjoint-free nonlinear data assimilation (DA) system was developed to simulate 3D baroclinic circulation in estuaries, leveraging two recently developed technologies: (1) a nonlinear model surrogate that executes forward simulation three orders of magnitude faster than a forward numerical circulation code and (2) a nonlinear extension to the reduced-dimension Kalman filter that estimates the state of the model surrogate. The noise sources in the Kalman filter were calibrated using empirical cross-validation and accounted for errors in model and model forcing.The DA system was applied to assimilate in situ measurements of water levels, salinities, and temperatures in simulations of the Columbia River estuary. To validate the DA results, we used a combination of cross-validation studies, process-oriented studies, and tests of statistical and dynamical consistency. The validation studies showed that DA improved the representation of several important processes in the estuary, including nonlinear tidal propagation, salinity intrusion, estuarine residual circulation, heat balance, and response of the estuary to coastal winds.     

Limited fluid-rock interaction at marble-gneiss contacts during Cretaceous granulite-facies metamorphism,Seward Peninsula,Alaska

Stable-isotope profiles show that flat-lying marble units acted as impermeable barriers to upward fluid flow in transitional amphibolite-granulite grade rocks of the Kigluaik Mountains, Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The degree of permeability is related to the composition of the marble. The margin of a thick pure dolomite marble chemically reacted with underlying metasyenite (aH₂O=0.2) to form a 2 cm boundary layer of calcite + forsterite by introduction of SiO₂. No fluid penetrated past this reaction front, although the high temperature of metamorphism (800°C) allowed transport of carbon and oxygen isotopes for an additional 2 cm by diffusion through the solid dolomite. A second marble with a higher silica content underwent more decarbonation, which enhanced porosity and lead to a greater extent of isotope transport (2–3 m) in contact with quartzo-feld-spathic gneiss below. An estimate of total fluid flux across the bottom of this marble layer based on the shape of the isotope profile is 1 cm³/cm² directed down, out of the marble. At two other marble-gneiss contacts steep isotopic gradients coincide with lithologic contacts, indicating very little cross-lithology fluid flow. The extent of diffusional transport of isotopes in the marbles is limited and interpreted as indicating the transient presence of a pore fluid, generated by thermally driven devolatilization reactions. No wholesale pervasive advection of C-O-H fluid occurred across the thick, continuous, marble units near the exposed base of the Kigluaik Group section during the entire regional metamorphic cycle. Activities of pore-fluid species were controlled by internal processes. Movement of volatiles and stable-isotopes between contrasting rock-types was dominantly diffusive. Channelized fluid pathways through the marble units developed during uplift and cooling but were not present during peak metamorphism. Heating of the section occurred by conduction, probably from an underlying magma source, and not by advection of a C-O-H fluid.