Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.     

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.     

Iron Reduction Along an Inundation Gradient in a Tidal Sedge (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyperus malaccensis</Emphasis>) Marsh: the Rates,Pathways, and Contributions to Anaerobic Organic Matter Mineralization

Incubation experiments were adopted to characterize the rates and pathways of iron reduction and the contributions to anaerobic organic matter mineralization in the upper 0–5 cm of sediments along a landscape-scale inundation gradient in tidal marsh sediments in the Min River Estuary, Southeast China. Similar sediment characteristics, single-species vegetation, varied biomass and bioturbation, distinct porewater pH, redox potential, and electrical conductivity values have resulted in a unique ecogeochemical zonation along the inundation gradient. Decreases in solid-phase Fe(III) and increases in nonsulfidic Fe(II) and iron sulfide were observed in a seaward direction. Porewater Fe²⁺ was only detected in the upland area. High rates of iron reduction were observed in incubation jars, with significant accumulations of nonsulfidic Fe(II), moderate accumulations of iron sulfides, and negligible accumulations of porewater Fe²⁺. Most of the iron reduction was microbially mediated rather than coupled to reduced sulfides. Microbial iron reduction accounted for 20–89 % of the anaerobic organic matter mineralization along the inundation gradient. The rate and dominance of microbial iron reduction generally decreased in a seaward direction. The contributions of microbial iron reduction to anaerobic organic matter mineralization depended on the concentrations of bioavailable Fe(III), the spatial distribution of which was significantly related to tidal inundation. Our results clearly showed that microbial iron reduction in the upper sediments along the gradient is highly dependent on spatial scales controlled primarily by tidal inundation.     

基于层次分析法的德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分应用

基于物元模型的可拓学理论分析,提出华北平原德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分方法。利用地面沉降易发性分级、分类标准和影响因子分析,构造出经典域物元和节域物元,应用物元和可拓集合中的关联函数,建立了易发性等级综合评判的可拓评价模型,通过基于层次分析法的可拓学评价分析,采用正方形等间距(2km×2km)剖分了135个网格,再将剖分单元转化成面元,经过等值差分,得到了地面沉降易发区划结果。计算结果显示,可拓学方法能够实现定量化、多因子评价地面沉降易发性等级问题,从而科学合理地指导地面沉降综合分区防治。     

Depth classification of underwater targets based on complex acoustic intensity of normal modes

In order to solve the problem of depth classification of the underwater target in a very low frequency acoustic field, the active component of cross spectra of particle pressure and horizontal velocity (ACCSPPHV) is adopted to distinguish the surface vessel and the underwater target. According to the effective depth of a Pekeris waveguide, the placing depth forecasting equations of passive vertical double vector hydrophones are proposed. Numerical examples show that when the sum of depths of two hydrophones is the effective depth, the sign distribution of ACCSPPHV has nothing to do with horizontal distance; in addition, the sum of the first critical surface and the second critical surface is equal to the effective depth. By setting the first critical surface less than the difference between the effective water depth and the actual water depth, that is, the second critical surface is greater than the actual depth, the three positive and negative regions of the whole ocean volume are equivalent to two positive and negative regions and therefore the depth classification of the underwater target is obtained. Besides, when the 20 m water depth is taken as the first critical surface in the simulation of underwater targets (40 Hz, 50 Hz, and 60 Hz respectively), the effectiveness of the algorithm and the correctness of relevant conclusions are verified, and the analysis of the corresponding forecasting performance is conducted.     

Mechanisms of partly flooded loose sand deposits

Partly flooded loose sand deposits are left back from lignite mining, particularly in east Germany. After flooding, gas inclusions in macropores enhance the pore pressure increase by total stress cycles without drainage, and this can cause the transition into a kind of suspension. Thus, natural and technical changes of surface loads triggered flow slides in chain reactions of sometimes catastrophic extent. Such collapsible deposits were and are stabilized by blast-induced liquefaction and densification. Successive collapse fronts in flooded grain skeletons are seismogeneous, and this appears as wavering in the near-field and leads to power-law spectra in the far-field. Apart from this evidence of mild fractality, the wild fractality of chain reactions eludes mathematical treatment. Therefore, uncommon methods of geotechnical design, operations and monitoring are required.     

A New Ootype of Dinosaur Egg (Faveoloolithidae: Duovallumoolithus shangdanensis oogen. et oosp. nov.) from the Late Cretaceous in the Shangdan Basin,Shaanxi Province,China

A new ootype collected from the Upper Cretaceous Lijiacun Formation in the Shangdan Basin, Shaanxi Province is described in this paper. Based on general external shape, size, eggshell thickness and honeycomb‐like eggshell microstructure, eggs are referable to the oofamily Faveoloolithidae. Compared with other members of Faveoloolithidae, specimens described in this paper show special characteristics: adjacent pores are usually separated by two eggshell units between which often develop interspaces; columnar eggshell units are relatively closely arranged in radial view. According to these characteristics, we erect a new oogenus and a new oospecies: Duovallumoolithus shangdanensis oogen. et oosp. nov. The new discovery expands the diversity of Faveoloolithidae.     

Ion chemistry of groundwater and the possible controls within Lhasa River Basin,SW Tibetan Plateau

In order to study the major ion chemistry and controls of groundwater, 65 groundwater samples were collected and their major ions measured from wells within Lhasa River Basin. Groundwater has the characteristics of slightly alkaline and moderate total dissolved solid (TDS). TDS concentration ranged from 122.0 to 489.9 mg/L with a median value of 271.2 mg/L. Almost all the groundwater samples suited for drinking and irrigation. The major cations of groundwater are Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺, accounting for 59.6 and 31.3% of the cations, respectively. Meanwhile, HCO₃^? and SO₄^2? constituted about 56.7 and 36.9% of the anions, respectively, in Lhasa River Basin. The hydrochemical type of groundwater is HCO₃-SO₄-Ca-Mg. The chemical composition of groundwater samples located in the middle of Gibbs model, which indicates that the major chemical process of groundwater is controlled by rock weathering. Carbonate weathering was the dominant hydro-geochemical process controlling the concentration of major ions in groundwater within Lhasa River Basin, but silicate weathering also plays an important role.     

Formation by silicate–fluoride + phosphate melt immiscibility of REE-rich globular segregations within aplite dikes

Aplite dikes intruding the Proterozoic 1.42(±?3) Ga Longs Peak-St. Vrain Silver Plume-type peraluminous granite near Jamestown, Colorado, contain F, P, and rare earth element (REE)-rich globular segregations, with 40–46% REE, 3.7–4.8 wt% P₂O₅, and 5–8 wt% F. A combination of textural features and geochemical data suggest that the aplite and REE-rich globular segregations co-existed as two co-genetic liquids prior to their crystallization, and we propose that they are formed by silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate (+?S?+?CO₂) melt immiscibility following ascent, cooling, and decompression of what was initially a single homogeneous magma that intruded the granite. The REE distribution coefficients between the silica-rich aplites and REE-rich segregations are in good agreement with experimentally determined distribution coefficients for immiscible silicate–fluoride?+?phosphate melts. Although monazite-(Ce) and uraninite U–Th–Pb microprobe ages for the segregations yield 1.420(±?25) and 1.442(±?8) Ga, respectively, thus suggesting a co-genetic relationship with their host granite, ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the granites and related granitic pegmatites range from ??3.3 to ??4.7 (average ??3.9), and differ from the values for both the aplites and REE-rich segregations, which range from ??1.0 to ??2.2 (average ??1.6). Furthermore, the granites and pegmatites have (La/Yb)_N <50 with significant negative Eu anomalies, which contrast with higher (La/Yb)_N >100 and absence of an Eu anomaly in both the aplites and segregations. These data are consistent with the aplite dikes and the REE-rich segregations they contain being co-genetic, but derived from a source different from that of the granite. The higher ε_Nd1.42Ga values for the aplites and REE-rich segregations suggest that the magma from which they separated had a more mafic and deeper, dryer and hotter source in the lower crust or upper mantle compared to the quartzo-feldspathic upper crustal source proposed for the Longs Peak-St. Vrain granite.