Monitoring of the large-scale dynamics of the ocean based on the assimilation of satellite data

An examle of satellite monitoring of the large-scale dynamics of the eastern sector of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in April 1990 is considered. As the satellite-derived data, a series of averaged 5-day maps of the remote data on the upper ocean temperature field obtained from satellites of the NOAA series was used. The profundity of the effect of the satellite data is estimated. Recommendations are provided. for selecting the regions most appropriate for rapid analysis of the circulation using satellite data.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

A method for the statistical prediction of hydrological and chemical fields,exemplified by computation of the oxygen content in the Sea of Azov surface layer

To predict the concentration of oxygen in the Sea of Azov, the paper relies on the decomposition of this parameter by a system of empirical orthogonal functions and on the prediction of decomposition coefficients via a grouped consideration of arguments. This method is applied to construct an optimal model for predicting the spatial distribution of oxygen in various seasons of the year, using a data on the mean seasonal dissolved oxygen concentration compiled at 32 reference stations occupied from 1958 to 1988. The experimentally derived numerical data indicate that the method can be effectively used to make short-term predictions. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 53–63, September–October, 2004.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to cover date.     

Dynamic model of integrated processes in the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

For the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea studied as an example, we construct a dynamic model of the integrated processes of development of phyto-and zooplankton, larvae, and fish and the variations of the concentrations of biogenic elements and detritus. The data of many-year observations over these processes are generalized and the scheme of genetic relations between these processes is proposed. By the method of adaptive balance of causes, we establish the dynamic model equations of the ecosystem. It is proposed to use the method of analytic hierarchy process for the estimation of the coefficients of the model with regard for the degree of influence of external and internal factors on the dynamics of the ecosystem. Some examples of analysis of various scenarios of the development of integrated processes running in the ecosystem are presented and their comparison with the data of many-year observations in this region is performed. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 48–69, July–August, 2007.