氧化铬柱支撑蒙脱石的制备研究

以浙江和新疆的膨润土为原料合成了氧化铝柱支撑蒙脱石,成柱溶液以Na2CO3为碱水解铝盐溶液制得。因为制备含有大聚羟基铬阳离子的成柱溶液是获得具有大的基面间距的柱支撑粘土的关键,我们详细研究了CO32-／Cr3＋值、水解温度和水解时间对所得柱支撑蒙脱石性质的影响。聚羟基铬阳离子通过阳离子交换引入蒙脱石,所得产物用X射线衍射分析和BET氮比表面等方法研究。所得氧化铝柱支撑蒙脱石（简称Cr－mont）的基面间距为2．55nm,BET氮比表面积为190～230m2／g。     

新疆克孜尔水库形变前兆异常的初步研究

对克孜尔水库蓄水前１８ 年的水准、基线测量资料进行研究认为：水准高差正常年变形态的消失是趋势性前兆异常的表现;震前半年左右测值曲线出现较大幅度的上下跳动,或呈台阶状大幅度下降,或出现直线状的“静止不变”异常,则是短临异常的主要特点。研究中发现：（１）异常的形态可能与断层运动的方式和状态有关;（２）异常幅度、异常持续时间与之后发生的中强震的强度及频度有一定关系;（３）近距离强震发生前,断层垂直位移有明显异常,而较远处强震发生前则地表倾斜异常较明显。基线测量没有观测到与水准相呼应的前兆异常     

静海台地磁短周期变化异常与其附近地震的关系

近年来的一些研究表明,由于地城前孕震区地下介质的电磁结构的变化,将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。本文通过对１９９１年唐山５．２、５．６级地城前后静海台地磁短周期转换函数参数的计算及其结果的分析和研究,提取出了可靠的地震短临前兆信息,确立了将其应用于唐山地区５级以上的震预报的短临异常特征及其指标。     

利用WIN—SURFER软件绘制物化探图件

本文主要介绍了如何在ＷＩＮ－ＳＵＲＦＥＲ环境下实现物化探图件中的经纬网绘制、标准图框绘制、曲线类型图绘制方法。     

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机的研制

GY-15型全液压动力头工程钻机是我所根据市场需求,结合自己多年研制全液压动力头钻机的优势开发的一种新型基础桩钻孔设备,本文着重对该钻机的结构特点、试验情况、主要技术参数等作了简要的介绍.     

四川盆地干旱动态评估指标的研究

在仔细分析干旱灾害物理成因基础上,围绕定量化和实时化这一核心,根据土壤水分盈亏原理,建立了具有清晰的物理意义的干旱动态评估指标。经检验,该方法符合实际,简便可行。     

江苏省近百年汛期旱涝变化的诊断分析

本文应用历史气候资料和现代降水记录,对近百年来汛期江苏省各区域各年代进行旱涝诊断分析,采用滑动平均方法探讨其变化趋势,并用最大搞谱方法提取显著周期。得出以下三个比较有意义的结论：（1）近百年来,汛期全省较易发生旱的灾害,20－30年代为旱灾濒发期;（2）淮北地区近年有向早年发展的趋势,江淮之间及苏南地区进入90年代以来向旱年发展的趋势则愈来愈明显;（3）全省具有2－3年、5－6年的旱涝周期。     

里下河地区梅雨量的可能异常和变化规律

本文利用50年代以来的观测资料,分析了里下河地区梅雨期降水量的基本特征,对若干年一遇的可能梅雨量异常和变化规律进行了初步研究。得出里下河地区梅雨量具有5年和3年周期的变化,并且阜宁的降水量是异常小中最小的,兴化的降水量是异常大中最大的。     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.