A possible geophysical interpretation of the anomalies in the residuals of astronomical time and latitude determination

Short period anomalies in astronomical time and latitude residuals sometimes appeared simultaneously and/or separately before major earthquakes which occurred in the vicinity of site where astronomical time and latitude observations were made with classical instruments. This article summarizes our results, and suggests that the anomalies could be caused by some vertical changes due to the motion of the underground mass.     

Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño

This paper investigates the optimal observational array for improving the initialization of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions by exploring the sensitive areas for target observations of two types of El Niño predictions. The sensitive areas are identified by calculating the optimally growing errors (OGEs) of the Zebiak–Cane model, as corrected by the optimal forcing vector that is determined by assimilating the observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). It is found that although the OGEs have similar structures for different start months of predictions, the regions covered by much large errors for the SSTA component tend to locate at different zonal positions and depends on the start months. Furthermore, these regions are also in difference between two types of El Niño events. The regions covered by large errors of OGEs represent the sensitive areas for target observations. Considering the dependence of the sensitive areas on related El Niño types and the start months of predictions, the present study propose a quantitative frequency method to determine the sensitive areas for target observations associated with two types of El Niño predictions, which is expected to be applicable for both types of El Niño predictions with different start months. As a result, the sensitive areas that describe the array of target observations are presented with a reversal triangle-like shape locating in the eastern Pacific, specifically the area of 120°W–85°W, 0°S–11°S, and an extension to the west along the equator and then gathering at the 180° longitude and the western boundary. “Hindcast” experiments demonstrated that such observational array is very useful in distinguishing two types of El Niño and superior to the TAO/TRITON array. It is therefore suggested that the observational array provided in the present study is towards the optimal one and the original TAO/TRITON array should be further optimized when applied to predictions of the diversities of El Niño events.

     

作物模型参数敏感性分析现状与展望

作物模型作为作物产量预测等方面应用广泛、作用巨大的重要工具,其参数的校正和优化等工作是模型模拟的前提。普通的试错法缺乏客观性且效率低下,对作物模型的输入参数进行敏感性分析,识别模拟过程中参数的敏感程度,能够有效识别关键参数并减少率定的参数量,为后续模型参数优化和校正工作奠定基础。本文主要分析了作物模型的局部敏感性分析方法和全局敏感性方法的利弊及其适应条件,涵盖傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(FAST)、Morris法、LH-OAT法、普适似然不确定性估计法(GLUE)、Sobol法以及扩展傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(EFAST)等,回顾各方法在作物模型中的研究现状,并对作物模型参数敏感性分析方法提出了展望。     

Simulating urban dynamics in China using a gradient cellular automata model based on S-shaped curve evolution characteristics

Cellular automata (CA) have been efficiently used to express the complexity and dynamics of cities at different scales. However, those large-scale simulation models typically use only binary values to represent urbanization states without considering mixed types within a cell. They also ignore differences among the cells in terms of their temporal evolution characteristics at different urbanization stages. This study establishes a gradient CA for solving such problems while considering development differences among the cells. The impervious surface area data was used to detect the urbanization states and temporal evolution trends of the grid cells. Transition rules were determined with the incorporation of urban development theory expressed as an S-shaped curve. China was selected as the case study area to validate the performance of the gradient CA for a national simulation. A comparison was also made to a traditional binary logistic-CA. The results demonstrated that the gradient CA achieved higher accuracies in terms of both spatial patterns and quantitative assessment indices. The simulation pattern derived from the gradient CA can better reflect the local disparity and temporal characteristics of urban dynamics. A national urban expansion for 2050 was also simulated, and is expected to provide important data for ecological assessments.     

基于多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的西北农牧交错带土地利用优化配置

西北农牧交错带生态环境脆弱,区位特殊性和生态重要性使其在我国社会经济发展和生态环境保护方面具有重要战略意义。通过对该区域进行土地利用优化配置,使有限的土地资源支撑起生态环境保护和经济发展的重任是本文的出发点。多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的应用可以从多方面（数量结构、空间布局、综合效益）完善土地利用优化配置,为土地利用优化配置提供更多的选择方案。本文选用多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型对该区域进行2025年的土地利用变化模拟,通过设置自然发展、生态保护优先、经济发展优先、生态-经济均衡4种情景,探讨了如何在兼顾生态环境保护与社会经济发展的情况下进行土地利用的优化配置。结果表明,基于生态-经济均衡情景下的优化方案,土地利用类型的数量结构和空间布局更为合理,其综合效益优于另外3种情景。该情景在合理限制经济发展速度的前提下,使生态建设获得稳定发展,其经济效益较生态保护优先情景下增长了8.96%,生态效益较经济发展优先情景下增长了0.77%,在生态保护与经济发展2种目标之间达到平衡,为西北农牧交错带的土地利用规划提供了决策辅助。     

江南断裂带（宣城段）断层泥中石英颗粒微形貌特征及年代学意义

在野外地质调查基础上,对江南断裂带宣城敬亭山剖面上采集的3件断层泥样品中的石英颗粒进行透射扫描电镜（SEM）微形貌观察与统计。结果显示,江南断裂带为活动断裂,在新近纪和第四纪时期具明显的活动性,活动始于中新世,晚更新世达到高峰,活动方式以蠕滑为主;至全新世,断裂以粘滑方式持续活动;沿断裂带的地震记录表明,至近现代断裂仍处于活动状态。这些结论对于正确评价江南断裂带在第四纪的活动规律及该区自然灾害预防等具有重要意义。     

Developmental Dynamics of the Larval Muscle System of Bay Scallop (Argopecten irradians)

Though the larval development of bivalves has been extensively studied for commercial purposes,the dynamic development of larval muscle system remains largely unknown.In this study,we characterized the larval muscle system at different developmental stages(D-shaped veligers,umbo veligers and spats)in the bay scallop(Argopecten irradians)by phalloidin staining and under a confocal microscopy.The functional muscles are initially established at the early stage of veligers,which have four pairs of velar retractors and one anterior adductor.At the veliger stage,the velum and posterior retractor muscles are functionally important for velar contractility but undergo an irreversible shrink until they disappear at the end of the larval stage.During metamorphosis,three crucial modifications take place in the larval muscle system.The metamorphosis process involves the gradual degeneration of velum retractors,mantle margin development from an unfolded to a three-fold state,and remodeling of the adductor muscle system from dimyarian(two adductors)to monomyarian condition(one adductor)as in juveniles/adults.All retractor muscles are composed of striated muscle,but both anterior and posterior adductors have smooth and striated components.These findings highlight that the morphological changes at different stages are typical features of myogenesis in scallops.The present knowledge on the developmental dynamics of myogenesis in the bay scallop will not only improve our understanding of phenotypic diversity of larval myoanatomy in bivalves,but also provide useful information on the larval culture in hatcheries.     

Silicon isotope fractionation between rice plants and nutrient solution and its significance to the study of the silicon cycle

The silicon isotope fractionation between rice plant and nutrient solution was studied experimentally. Rice plants were grown to maturity with the hydroponic culture in a naturally lit glasshouse. The nutrient solution was sampled for 14 times during the whole rice growth period. The rice plants were collected at various growth stages and different parts of the plants were sampled separately. The silica contents of the samples were determined by the gravimetric method and the silicon isotope compositions were measured using the SiF₄ method.In the growth process, the silicon content in the nutrient solution decreased gradually from 16 mM at starting stage to 0.1-0.2 mM at harvest and the amount of silica in single rice plant increased gradually from 0.00013 g at start to 4.329 g at harvest. Within rice plant the SiO₂ fraction in roots reduced continuously from 0.23 at the seedling stage, through 0.12 at the tiller stage, 0.05 at the jointing stage, 0.023 at the heading stage, to 0.009 at the maturity stage. Accordingly, the fraction of SiO₂ in aerial parts increased from 0.77, through 0.88, 0.95, 0.977, to 0.991 for the same stages. The silicon content in roots decreased from the jointing stage, through the heading stage, to the maturity stage, parallel to the decrease of silicon content in the nutrient solution. At the maturity stage, the silicon content increased from roots, through stem and leaves, to husks, but decreased drastically from husks to grains. These observations show that transpiration and evaporation may play an important role in silica transportation and precipitation within rice plants.It was observed that the δ³⁰Si of the nutrient solution increased gradually from −0.1‰ at start to 1.5‰ at harvest, and the δ³⁰Si of silicon absorbed by bulk rice plant increased gradually from −1.72‰ at start to −0.08‰ at harvest, reflecting the effect of the kinetic silicon isotope fractionation during silicon absorption by rice plants from nutrient solutions. The calculated silicon isotope fractionation factor between the silicon instantaneously absorbed by rice roots and the silicon in nutrient solution vary from 0.9983 at start to 0.9995 at harvest, similar to those reported for bamboo, banana and diatoms in direction and extent. In the maturity stage, the δ³⁰Si value of rice organs decreased from −1.33‰ in roots to −1.98‰ in stem, and then increased through −0.16‰ in leaves and 1.24‰ in husks, to 2.21‰ in grains. This trend is similar to those observed in the field grown rice and bamboo.These quantitative data provide us a solid base for understanding the mechanisms of silicon absorption, transportation and precipitation in rice plants and the role of rice growth in the continental Si cycle.     

Origin of the inconsistent apparent Re–Os ages of the Jinchuan Ni–Cu sulfide ore deposit,China: Post-segregation diffusion of Os

Apparent Re–Os ages of some magmatic sulfide ore deposits are older than the zircon and baddeleyite U–Pb ages which are interpreted as the formation age of the host intrusions. The Jinchuan Ni–Cu–PGE deposit of China, the world's third largest, is such a case. We report apparent Re–Os isochron ages of 1117 ± 67 Ma, 1074 ± 120 Ma and 867 ± 75 Ma with initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios of 0.120 ± 0.012, 0.162 ±0.017 and 0.235 ± 0.027 for disseminated ores, sulfides from the disseminated ores and massive ores from Jinchuan, respectively. Using these data and Re–Os ages from the literature, we find that the oldest apparent Re–Os age and lowest initial Os isotope ratio are from disseminated ores which contain small amounts of sulfide minerals, the highest initial Os isotope ratios and youngest apparent Re–Os ages, consistent with the zircon and baddeleyite U–Pb ages, are from massive ores containing 90–100 modal% sulfide, and net-textured ores with about 25 modal% sulfides yield apparent Re–Os ages and initial Os ratios intermediate between those of the disseminated and massive ores.Because Os diffusion between sulfides is inhibited by the intervening silicates even at high temperatures, re-equilibration did not occur in the disseminated ore and the samples retained the Os ratios of the contaminated magma, leading to geologically meaningless ages that are older than the formation age of the rocks. While Os-bearing sulfide minerals and magnetite show low closure temperatures of Os diffusion and the sulfide minerals in the massive ore are closely connected with each other, facilitating fast diffusion of Os, re-equilibration of Os was achieved during cooling of the ore from about 850 °C after the segregation to about 400 °C. Thus, an age corresponding to the formation time and an elevated initial Os ratio were yielded by the massive ore. Os isotopes in the net-textured ore behave in the way intermediate between the disseminated and massive ores. Pb isotope data support the Os results. Disseminated ores have heterogeneous Pb isotope ratios whereas Pb in the massive ores is more uniform, consistent with Pb isotopic equilibration in the massive ores, but not in the disseminated ores.     

Spatial distribution and susceptibility analyses of pre-earthquake and coseismic landslides related to the Ms 6.5 earthquake of 2014 in Ludian,Yunan, China

On 3 August 2014, an earthquake struck Ludian County, Yunnan Province, China, which has caused a large number of coseismic landslides. Visual interpretation permitted 284 and 1053 landslides before and after the event to be mapped, respectively. This work attempted to analyse these two kinds of landslides. Conditioning factors, such as slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation, distance from drainages, intensity and lithology, and the index of Landslide Number Density (LND) were used to describe the spatial distribution of these landslides. Then, the pre-earthquake and coseismic landslide susceptibility maps were produced using the information value model. The areas under curve are 84.73 and 77.05%, for the pre-earthquake and coseismic landslides, respectively. The results show that the LND values as well as the information values of coseismic landslides are larger than those of the pre-earthquake case. This also indicates that this Ludian earthquake has a relatively larger ability to trigger landslides.