整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离,建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据,在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补,并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合,插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律;②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%,在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%,其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%,平均绝对误差为0.84℃,插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上;③从3月27日起出现增温异常,特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。     

Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008-2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R2), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.     

广东新丰江水库XFJ-1孔DDTs和HCHs的沉积记录

以~(210)Pb对广东新丰江水库XFJ-1孔进行了定年,以GC-ECD测定新丰江水库沉积钻孔中DDTs和HCHs的含量,通过对比其剖面变化特征与该类农药在我国的生产、使用历史,探讨了水库中DDT、HCH的历史输入途径.过去30年来,XFJ-1孔平均沉积速率为1.42cm/a,沉积物中HCHs和DDTs的含量分别为1.26-3.90ng/g和1.00-3.96ng/g.DDTs、HCHs含量从20世纪80年代初逐渐下降,总体上与我国1983年开始禁止DDT、HCH的大规模生产和使用这一历史事件相符.DDTs、HCHs及其化合物比值的剖面变化特征均表明:流域内后期土壤侵蚀、搬运的再循环污染物质(即二次污染源)对水库DDT和HCH的贡献不明显;相反,农药历史使用(即一次污染源)是其主要来源,大气沉降是其主要输入途径.此外,γ-HCH、o,p′-DDT和p,p′-DDT含量的垂直变化表明,大规模禁用以后这些化合物仍有少量新的输入,需引起重视.     

双平板式透空堤消能效果评价方法

双平板式透空堤具有较为优越的消浪性能备受专家学者关注。目前关于其消浪性能的评价多采用透射波高法开展,仅考虑波高一个参数。本文采用透射波高法、波浪能量法和波能流法分别对平板式透空堤的消能效果进行评价,结果表明,综合考虑波高、水深和周期三个参数的波能流法更加全面与深入。探讨了双平板式透空堤迎浪向与背浪向处波能流的主要影响因素,结果表明,相对板宽、位置参数和波高大小对波能流的影响较板间距和潜深更加显著。     

地球化学数据库管理平台的建设与思考

为更好地发挥地球化学数据及方法在异常分析及震情跟踪研判中的作用,提高地球化学数据获取的便利性及数据存储的可靠性,规范异常核实及流动观测等地球化学样品的采集及检测流程,实现地球化学数据的自动分析及相关图件的自动绘制,中国地震台网中心建立了基于Linux系统的地球化学数据库管理平台,该平台应用数据库、地理信息系统(GIS)、WebGIS等技术,集成了样品送检、实验室检测、报告产出、数据存储筛选下载分析、图件绘制等功能,利用Piper图、Na-K-Mg三角图、同位素分析等方法,分析不同样品的地球化学特征,并给出相关图件。平台自推广以来,收集了大量的地球化学数据,提升了数据的可利用性,降低了地球化学数据分析的技术门槛,在异常性质分析及震情跟踪研判中发挥了作用。     

两个30年气候平均值的差异及其对气候业务的影响

对陕西短期气候预测业务使用的39个气象站气候要素1971～2000年平均值与1961～1990年平均值进行比较,发现大部分地区年平均气温升高,晴天日数增加;年降水量、阴天日数、降水日数、年日照时数减少;年大风日数、沙尘暴日数、冰雹日数、雷暴日数减少等。把两个平均值放在长序列中分析,发现某些气象要素最近的气候平均值的差值在20世纪80～90年代期间的5～6个气候平均值每两个相邻平均值的差值中是最大的,说明陕西20世纪90年代气候较60年代干燥、温暖,且90年代气温高、降水少的特点十分突出。还对某些要素平均值改变对气候影响评价、气候预测业务产生的影响进行简要分析。     

伶仃洋河口泥沙絮凝特征及影响因素研究

泥沙絮凝对河口细颗粒泥沙运动过程起着极其重要的作用。本文通过LISST-100激光粒度仪等仪器实测伶仃洋河口2013年洪季悬浮泥沙絮凝体现场粒径及水动力、泥沙条件,结合实验室悬沙粒径分析,研究大小潮期间伶仃洋河口泥沙絮凝特征,探讨紊动剪切强度、含沙量、盐度分层及波浪等因素对伶仃洋河口泥沙絮凝的影响。结果表明:伶仃洋河口水体中现场粒径平均值为148.53 μm,大于实验室悬沙分散粒径36.74 μm,河口絮凝现象明显;沉速与有效密度、粒径呈正相关,絮团平均有效密度为153.49 kg/m3,平均沉速达1.13 mm/s;小潮时絮团平均粒径大于大潮,垂向上表底层絮团粒径小、中层大,中底层絮团沉速大于表层。伶仃洋河口水动力、泥沙条件是影响其泥沙絮凝的重要因素,低剪切强度（小于5 s-1）、低含沙量（小于50 mg/L）及高体积浓度有利于细颗粒泥沙之间的相互碰撞,促进絮凝作用;当剪切强度与颗粒间碰撞强度高于絮团所能承受的强度时,絮团易破碎分解成小絮团或更细的泥沙颗粒;伶仃洋河口盐度层化引起的泥沙捕获现象增大中层泥沙体积浓度,有利于中层絮凝体的发育;观测期相对较大的波浪增强水体紊动,增大了水体细颗粒泥沙的碰撞几率,表层絮团粒径随波高峰值的出现而增大。     

Evaluating the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of larval fish assemblages in a coastal marine ecosystem (Haizhou Bay,China)

In coastal marine ecosystems, spatial patterns of larval fish assemblages (LFAs) tend to exhibit geographic stability because of relatively stable spawning site selection and predictable oceanographic phenomena such as eddies. To evaluate the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of LFAs, we conducted a high spatiotemporal resolution ichthyoplankton survey from April to July in 2013 in the shallow waters (<20 m) of Haizhou Bay, China. Our analysis indicated three distinct assemblages, which were stable geographically but exhibited a gradual and directional change of species composition and abundance over our study period. Sea surface temperature was the most important environmental co‐variate for determining temporal variability of LFAs, likely owing to temperature effects of species composition and spawning period selection of adult fish, along with known temperature‐dependent survival rates of larval fish. Study of LFA spatiotemporal dynamics is essential for improved understanding of adult fish spawning behavior, and has potential to inform design and implementation of conservation and management measures (e.g. marine protected areas) in coastal systems.     

热带西太平洋Y3和M2海山微食物网主要类群生态分布与比较

2014年12月和2016年3月分别对热带西太平洋Y3海山(中层海山)和M2海山(浅海山)微食物网主要类群(包括聚球藻、原绿球藻、微微型真核浮游生物、异养细菌和浮游纤毛虫)丰度和生物量垂直分布进行了研究。结果表明,Y3和M2海山水文环境比较相似但略有区别,叶绿素最大值层(DCM)分别在75—100m和110m水层,微食物网各主要类群在垂直尺度上的分布与叶绿素a浓度紧密相关。其中浮游纤毛虫呈现"双峰型"模式,即丰度高值出现在表层和DCM层;原绿球藻和微微型真核浮游生物呈现"单峰型"模式,丰度高值出现在DCM层;聚球藻和异养细菌峰型相对不显著,DCM层以浅丰度较高,DCM层以深丰度明显降低。分析其原因,可能是受到温度、光照和营养盐的共同影响。Y3和M2海山微食物网结构的垂直变化不完全一致。其中,Y3海山30m以浅和150m以深异养细菌生物量占绝对优势,75—100m水层自养型生物(原绿球藻和微微型真核浮游生物)占绝对优势;M2海山75m以浅和200m以深异养细菌占绝对优势,110—150m自养型生物占绝对优势。M2海山自养型生物占优势的水层要明显深于Y3海山,可能与它们的海山类型和采样季节不同有关。     

Effects of wetland vegetation on soil microbial composition: A case study in Tumen River Basin,Northeast China

Hydrology plays a dominant role in wetland plant distribution and microbial composition, but few studies explicitly attempted to relate the linkage between wetland vegetation and microbial community. The present study consisted of five wetland plant communities along three adjacent flood gradients zones (zone 1 dominated by Carex appendiculat, zone 2 dominated by Eleocharis ovate, and zone 3 dominated by Phragmites australis/Bidens pilosa/Calamagrostis angustifolia, which formed separate, monoculture patches). Gram negative and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) are more abundant in the site with short flooding period (zone 3) than in the site with long flooding period (zone 1), and they are also different in the P. australis, B. spilosa and C. angustifolia of zone 3. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) showed that the flooding period could explain 92.4% of variance in microbial composition. Redundancy Analysis (RDA) showed that available nitrogen (AN), total nitrogen (TN) and soil organic matter (SOM) could explain the 79.5% of variance in microbial composition among E. ovata, P. australis, B. pilosa and C. angustifolia. Results demonstrated that flooding period was the main factor in driving the microbial composition and plant-derived resources could influence soil microbial composition in the seasonally flooded zones.