Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.     

Orbital maneuver optimization using time-explicit power series

Orbital maneuver transfer time optimization is traditionally accomplished using direct numerical sampling to find the mission design with the lowest delta-v requirements. The availability of explicit time series solutions to the Lambert orbit determination problem allows for the total delta-v of a series of orbital maneuvers to be expressed as an algebraic function of only the individual transfer times. The delta-v function is then minimized for a series of maneuvers by finding the optimal transfer times for each orbital arc. Results are shown for the classical example of the Hohmann transfer, a noncoplanar transfer as well as an interplanetary fly-by mission to the asteroids Pallas and Juno.