Evolution of the Yellow River delta,China: Impacts of channel avulsion and progradation

The evolution of the Yellow River delta is characterized by heavy sediment load,rapid seaward migration,frequent avulsions,and intense anthropogenic disturbances.Evolution of the delta channel following avulsions is very complex and has not yet been thoroughly understood.In the research presented by this paper,we conducted comprehensive analyses of the changes in the water stages,slopes,longitudinal profiles,and the erosion and deposition in the Yellow River delta channels during a time period of over five decades.Results showed that,following each avulsion,channels migrated seaward at decaying rates and the slopes at the downstream of the avulsion point decreased exponentially with time and completed its major adjustment within about four to five years.A generalized geometric model was proposed to describe the changes in the longitudinal profiles of the delta channels.A calculation method to determine the characteristic water stages at the delta was proposed based on the geometric model and the delayed response model for the morphological responses of fluvial rivers to perturbations.Water stages corresponding to a discharge of 3000 m3/s at Lijin and Xihekou during 1954 through 2012 were calculated by using the proposed method.The proposed method may be used to predict the evolution of the delta channels in response to artificial avulsions at the Yellow River delta in the future.     

Geochemical characteristics of gold-related granitoids in southwestern New Brunswick, Canada

Two groups of granitoids associated with gold mineralization in the Appalachian orogen of southwestern New Brunswick are recognized: a Late Silurian to Early Devonian (423–396 Ma) granodioritic to monzogranitic series (GMS), and a Late Devonian (370–360 Ma) granitic series (GS). The GMS granitoids are relatively low in silica, calc-alkaline, metaluminous to weakly peraluminous, and show characteristics of normal (oxidized) to reduced I-type granites depending on the properties of country rocks. They may have been derived from partial melting of lower crustal rocks triggered by underplated basaltic magmas; and country rocks bearing reduced organic carbon and/or graphite may have played an important role in the reduction of normal I-type intrusions to reduced I-type, which is essential in the formation of intrusion-related gold systems. In contrast, the GS granites, although calc-alkaline and metaluminous to peraluminous, are relatively rich in silica, incompatible elements, and high field strength elements. They are fractionated I-type granites, and are probably related to the coeval Mount Douglas granite in the Saint George batholith through fractional crystallization. Their parental magmas may have been derived from partial melting of quartzofeldspathic sources at relatively low temperatures. Both GMS and GS intrusions are orogenic, although some of them display the affinity of those emplaced into a within-plate environment. The origin of intrusion-related gold systems in this region appears to be controlled by several factors, including magma sources, magmatic processes, redox conditions (country-rock nature), and local structural regimes.     

Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization are often used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in regions that are food insecure areas, are isolated from international export market price trends. Here we present country and regional staple food price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We examine the market integration of regional and country level staple food price indices for 35 countries in West, East and Southern Africa and in Central Asia and Central America. We found that cereal price indices constructed using local market prices of within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier warning of food security crises.     

Importance of Biogeomorphic and Spatial Properties in Assessing a Tidal Salt Marsh Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise

We evaluated the biogeomorphic processes of a large (309 ha) tidal salt marsh and examined factors that influence its ability to keep pace with relative sea-level rise (SLR). Detailed elevation data from 1995 and 2008 were compared with digital elevation models (DEMs) to assess marsh surface elevation change during this time. Overall, 37 % (113 ha) of the marsh increased in elevation at a rate that exceeded SLR, whereas 63 % (196 ha) of the area did not keep pace with SLR. Of the total area, 55 % (169 ha) subsided during the study period, but subsidence varied spatially across the marsh surface. To determine which biogeomorphic and spatial factors contributed to measured elevation change, we collected soil cores and determined percent and origin of organic matter (OM), particle size, bulk density (BD), and distance to nearest bay edge, levee, and channel. We then used Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) model selection to assess those variables most important to determine measured elevation change. Soil stable isotope compositions were evaluated to assess the source of the OM. The samples had limited percent OM by weight (<5.5 %), with mean bulk densities of 0.58 g cm^-3, indicating that the soils had high mineral content with a relatively low proportion of pore space. The most parsimonious model with the highest AICc weight (0.53) included distance from bay's edge (i.e., lower intertidal) and distance from levee (i.e., upper intertidal). Close proximity to sediment source was the greatest factor in determining whether an area increased in elevation, whereas areas near landward levees experienced subsidence. Our study indicated that the ability of a marsh to keep pace with SLR varied across the surface, and assessing changes in elevation over time provides an alternative method to long-term accretion monitoring. SLR models that do not consider spatial variability of biogeomorphic and accretion processes may not correctly forecast marsh drowning rates, which may be especially true in modified and urbanized estuaries. In light of SLR, improving our understanding of elevation change in these dynamic marsh systems will play a crucial role in forecasting potential impacts to their sustainability and the survival of these ecosystems.     

Resonant interactions between cometary ions and low frequency electromagnetic waves

We explore the conditions for resonance between cometary pick-up ions and parallel propagating electromagnetic waves. A model ring—beam distribution for the pick-up H₂O⁺ ions is adopted which allows a direct comparison of the source of free energy for growth from either the beam or the gyrating ring in the limit near marginal stability. Under average solar wind conditions in the inner solar system, the gyrating ring provides the dominant contribution to wave growth. The presence of a field-aligned beam is only important to allow resonance with R-mode waves which occur in two distinct frequency bands either well above or below the pick-up ion gyrofrequency. The most unstable mode is the low frequency R-mode or fast MHD wave, though higher frequency whistlers or low frequency L-mode waves may also be excited by the same source of free energy. The nature of the unstable waves is strongly influenced by the inclination of the interplanetary field. For 3° the rate of the low frequency R-mode growth is dramatically reduced and resonant L-mode waves should experience net ion beam damping. Conversely for 75°, the ion beam velocity will be insufficient to allow resonant R-mode instability; L-mode waves should therefore predominate. The low frequency fast MHD mode should experience the most rapid amplification for intermediate inclination; 30° 75°. In the frame of the solar wind such waves must propagate along the field in the direction upstream towards the Sun with a phase speed lower than the beaming velocity of the pick-up ions. The waves are consequently blown back away from the Sun and would thus be detected with a left-hand polarization by an observer in the cometary frame. We consider this the most likely mechanism to account for the interior MHD waves observed by satellites over an extended spatial region surrounding comets Giacobini-Zinner and Halley.     

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

Abstract

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Burn, D. H., et al., 2012 Whitfield, P.H. 2012. Reference hydrologic networks, I. The status of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends and future directions. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(8) this issue[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]. Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1580–1593.     

Seismic imaging of the laterally varying D" region beneath the Cocos Plate

We use an axisymmetric, spherical Earth finite difference algorithm to model SH -wave propagation through cross-sections of laterally varying lower mantle models beneath the Cocos Plate derived from recent data analyses. Synthetic seismograms with dominant periods as short as 4 s are computed for several models: (1) a D" reflector 264 km above the core–mantle boundary with laterally varying S -wave velocity increases of 0.9–2.6 per cent, based on localized structures from a 1-D double-array stacking method; (2) an undulating D" reflector with large topography and uniform velocity increase obtained using a 3-D migration method and (3) cross-sections through the 3-D mantle S -wave velocity tomography model TXBW. We apply double-array stacking to assess model predictions of data. Of the models explored, the S -wave tomography model TXBW displays the best overall agreement with data. The undulating reflector produces a double Scd arrival that may be useful in future studies for distinguishing between D" volumetric heterogeneity and D" discontinuity topography. Synthetics for the laterally varying models show waveform variability not observed in 1-D model predictions. It is challenging to predict 3-D structure based on localized 1-D models when lateral structural variations are on the order of a few wavelengths of the energy used, particularly for the grazing geometry of our data. Iterative approaches of computing synthetic seismograms and adjusting model characteristics by considering path integral effects are necessary to accurately model fine-scale D" structure.     

Analysis of riverbank instability due to toe scour and lateral erosion

This paper provides instruction in the use of the computer spreadsheet to undertake the calculations necessary to apply the Osman–Thorne bank stability analysis for steep, eroding riverbanks. The guide explains how to input the necessary parameters into the LOTUS 123 spreadsheet in order to:

• 1 find the initial factor of safety of the bank with respect to slab-type failure;
• 2 test the sensitivity of bank stability to changes in the engineering properties of the bank material;
• 3 analyse the response of bank stability to toe scour and/or lateral erosion and find the critical condition;
• 4 find the geometry of the failure surface and failure block;
• 5 analyse the response of bank stability to further toe scour and/or lateral erosion;
• 6 find the geometry of the failure surface and failure block in subsequent failures.