Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Trace element diagenesis in pyrite-rich sediments of the Achterwasser lagoon, SW Baltic Sea

The early diagenesis of trace elements (V, Cr, Co, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Ba, U) in anoxic sediments of the Achterwasser, a shallow lagoon in the non-tidal Oder estuary in the Baltic Sea, was investigated in the context of pyrite formation. The dissolved major redox parameters show a two-tier distribution with transient signals in the occasionally re-suspended fluid mud layer (FM) and a permanently established diagenetic sequence in the sediment below. Intense microbial respiration leads to rapid depletion of O₂ within the uppermost mm of the FM. The reduction zones of Mn, Fe and sulfate overlap in the FM and in the permanently anoxic sediment section which appears to be a typical feature of estuarine sediments, under low-sulfate conditions. Degrees of pyritization (DOP) range from 50% in the FM to remarkably high values > 90% at 50 cm depth. Pyrite formation at the sediment surface is attributed to the reaction of Fe-monosulfides with intermediate sulfur species via the polysulfide pathway. By contrast, intense pyritization in the permanently anoxic sediment below is attributed to mineral growth via adsorption of aqueous Fe-sulfide complexes onto pyrite crystals which had originally formed in the surface layer.The studied trace elements show differential behavior patterns which are closely coupled to the diagenetic processes described above: (i) Zn, Cu and Cd are liberated from organic matter in the thin oxic layer of the sediment and diffuse both upwards across the sediment/water boundary and downwards to be trapped as monosulfides, (ii) V, Cr, Co and As are released during reductive dissolution of Mn- and Fe-oxyhydroxides, (iii) U removal from pore water occurs concomitantly to Fe reduction in the FM and is attributed to reduction of U(VI) to U(IV), (iv) the Ba distribution is controlled by reductive dissolution of authigenic barite in the sulfate reduction zone coupled with upward diffusion and re-precipitation. The incorporation of trace elements into pyrite is most intense for Co, Mn and As, intermediate for Cu and Cr and little to negligible for U, Zn, Cd, V and Ba. The observed trend is largely in agreement with previous studies and may be explained with differing rates for ligand exchange. Slow and fast ligand exchange and thus precipitation kinetics are also displayed by downcore increasing (Mn, Cr, Co and As) or constantly low (Zn, Cu, Cd) pore water concentrations. The downward increasing degrees of trace metal pyritization (DTMP) for Co, Cu, Zn and As are, in analogy to pyrite growth, assigned to adsorption of sulfide complexes or As oxyanions onto preexisting pyrite minerals.     

大黄鱼倍性检测研究

于2001—2004年对人工诱导大黄鱼的不同发育阶段和不同组织进行倍性检测，胚胎眼泡期采用染色体计数法测定，鱼苗和成鱼阶段用流式细胞法，结果表明，胚胎染色体数目2n=48条为二倍体，3n=72条为三倍体．采用流式细胞法测定鱼苗和成鱼个体时，若受测样品的DNA相对含量值与已知对照组二倍体的比值约为1．5：1，其个体为三倍体；比值约为1：1，则为二倍体，无论用肌肉或尾鳍组织，皆可检测出其个体的倍性。     

大西洋中脊TAG热液活动区中热液沉积物的稀土元素地球？…

用ＩＣＰ－ＭＳ对ＴＡＧ热液活动区表层热液沉积物中６个块状硫化物样品进行了稀土元素分析。所有样品均表现出正Ｅｕ异常和ＬＲＥＥ相对富集的球粒陨石标准化配分模式,热液沉积物样品中稀土元素组成的变化是由于海底热液循环体系中热液流体和涨水不同程度混合作用的结果,     

Source regions for recruitment of Calanus finmarchicus to Georges Bank: evidence from molecular population genetic analysis of mtDNA

Molecular population genetic analysis has provided evidence that the copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, of the Labrador Current, Gulf of St Lawrence, Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, and Georges Bank constitute a single, interbreeding population. The DNA sequence of a 350 base pair portion of the mitochondrial large subunit (16S) ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene was determined for a total of 72 individuals collected in 1992, and 110 individuals collected in 1993 from these regions. There was significant heterogeneity in haplotype frequencies among the samples collected in 1992, but this heterogeneity did not resolve into regional patterns. The only regional differences seen were between pooled samples of the western N. Atlantic and those of the Norwegian Sea. There were no significant differences in haplotype frequencies among the samples collected in 1993, and fewer haplotypes were observed in these samples. Intraspecific molecular variation was typical of other marine species: there were 29 haplotypes among the 182 individuals sequenced. The frequency distribution of the haplotypes was highly skewed: 128 individuals shared one haplotype and 19 individuals were unique. There were 24 variable sites among the 350 bases sequenced; estimated nucleotide diversity was 0.0042. The genetic character of C. finmarchicus populations in the western N. Atlantic was stable over time in that three of the haplotypes (including the most abundant) occurred in both 1992 and 1993. However, haplotype frequencies differed significantly between the two years. The lack of regional structure in the 1992 samples and the genetic homogeneity of samples collected in 1993 across the domain from the Labrador Current to the Gulf of St Lawrence to Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine indicated that there is significant gene flow across this region. The persistent genetic pattern suggests that the Gulf of St Lawrence may be an important source region for recruitment of C. finmarchicus to Georges Bank. Determination of zooplankton dispersal patterns within high gene flow species will provide information that may not be determined by conventional oceanographic analyses.     

Numerical Simulation of Residual Circulation due to Bottom Rouglmess Variability Under Tidal Flows in A Semi-Enclosed Bay

Nowadays there are some chronic serious environmental problems, such as eutrophication, blue tide and so on, in a complicated coastal zone or a semi-enclosed bay, because the water exchanges between an inner bay and an outer sea is weak compared with the supply of contaminant. Under this situation, a method to improve the water quality by 3-dimensional small unsymmetrical structures has been proposed by Komatsu et al. In this paper, several numerical simulations of the tidal current and concentration for various arrangements of bottom roughness in a semi-enclosed model bay are carfled out with a depth-averaged 2-D numerical model. The model is solved by the hybrid finite analytic method with nonstaggered grid. And the SIMPLES algorithm with Rhie and Chow＇ s momentum interpolation technique is used for the simulation. The effect of Komatsu＇ s method for water purification is examined by numerical simulation. The result of numerical experiment indicates that it is possible to generate a new tidal residual current and to activate a tidal exchange by bottom roughness arrangement only.     

三维斜压模式对冬季南海环流的数值计算

用一个三维、自由表面、原始方程模式对南海环流进行了计算.计算结果表明:黑潮在巴士海峡以西呈一反气旋弯曲流动路径,有一相对高温高盐的水舌从巴士海峡伸入南海,表明有部分黑潮水侵入南海.冬季南海的一些观测事实在模式结果里得到了很好的反映,像冬季逆风向东北方向流动的“南海暖流”和一些中尺度涡旋.同时还分析了巴士海峡沿120.75°E断面的流速和盐度的垂直结构,并同观测结果进行了比较.根据模式结果,我们还进一步讨论了“南海暖流”的形成和驱动机制.     

Circulation

Low-frequency current and temperature variability on the southeast US continental shelf during summer conditions of weak wind forcing and vertical stratification was found to be similar in many aspects to previous findings for winter, when stronger wind forcing and vertical homogeneity prevails. Subtidal variability in the outer shelf is dominated by the weekly occurrence of Gulf Stream frontal eddies and meanders. These baroclinic events strongly affect the balance of momentum in the outer shelf, but not at mid-shelf. A negative alongshore sea level slope of order −10⁻⁷ is required to balance mean along-shelf momentum at the shelf edge, similar to oceanic estimates, and can contribute to the observed northward mean flow over the shelf.Low-frequency flow at mid-shelf and coastal sea level fluctuations appear to occur as a forced wave response to local alongshore wind stress events that are coherent over the shelf domain. Momentum balances indicate a trapped wave response similar to the arrested topographic wave found in the mid-Atlantic Bight (CSANADY, 1978). Density driven currents from river discharge do not appear to be significant at mid-shelf. Cold, subsurface intrusions of deeper, nutrient rich Gulf Stream waters can occasionally penetrate to mid- and inner-shelf regions north of Cape Canaveral, causing strong phytoplankton and zooplankton responses. These events were observed following the simultaneous occurrence of upwellings from northward winds and Gulf Stream frontal eddies at the shelf break during periods when the Stream was in an onshore position. Subsurface Gulf Stream intrusions to mid-shelf occur only during the summer, when the shelf is vertically stratified and cross-shelf density gradients do not present a barrier as in winter.