The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.     

Scientific management of Mediterranean coastal zone: a hybrid ocean forecasting system for oil spill and search and rescue operations

The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations.     

Monitoring biomarkers in fish (Lepidorhombus boscii and Callionymus lyra) from the northern Iberian shelf after the Prestige oil spill

Hepatic biomarker responses were measured in two demersal fish species (Lepidorhombus boscii and Callionymus lyra) from the northern Iberian shelf associated with the massive Prestige oil spill (POS), five months after the accident. The biomarkers selected were 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), glutathione reductase (GR), catalase (CAT), and DNA integrity. Interspecies differences and spatial variations in biomarker responses were observed along the shelf. GST, GR and CAT activities were significantly elevated in L. boscii in the most oil impacted area (Finisterre) and positively correlated (p<0.05) with POS tar aggregate densities. The lack of previous data from the area together with the existence of chronic background pollution of the shelf implies that the observed biomarker responses cannot be solely attributed to the petroleum hydrocarbon components of the spilled oil. This first biological effect assessment showed that L. boscii is a potentially suitable target species to be used in future biomonitoring programmes along the northern Iberian shelf.     

Forward Coupled Modeling and Assessment of Gravity Anomalies Caused by Pumping Tests in Unconfined Aquifers Under Unsteady-State Conditions

Analysis of drawdown data from pumping tests is the most common method for identification of aquifer properties and estimation of hydraulic parameters in hydrogeology. Limited hard hydraulic data from wells, expensive and intrusive, can be supplemented with geophysical spatially distributed information. Gravity, sensible to mass variations, can provide information about hydraulic parameters and storage coefficients of aquifers. A satisfactory use of gravity requires the computation of temporal evolution of gravity anomalies related with the dynamic hydraulic process. For simplified and ideal problems, the calculation can be accomplished with analytical solutions. However, the limitations of analytical solutions in capturing some relevant characteristics, like heterogeneities, that require the use of numerical models, are well known. This article shows how the time-dependent gravity anomaly caused by a pumping test can be calculated in a unique code, in a coupled manner and in a single run. The methodology avoids the use and transference of data between various codes and can be utilized in a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion procedure. Additionally, it is flexible enough to include a wide range of characteristics that can be encountered in any pumping test, and is an adequate framework for field survey planning via analysis and study of time-dependent gravity curves.     

Functional diversity of fish and invertebrates in coral and rocky reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific

To define the functional groups of fish and macroinvertebrates in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), visual censuses were performed in 18 areas of four biogeographic provinces: Cortés, Mexican, Panamic and Oceanic Islands. A total of 257 fish and macroinvertebrate species were recorded, and from them, 27 morpho‐functional groups (MFGs) were constructed on the basis of trophic level, maximum size, taxonomy and morphology. Biomass, richness, diversity and evenness of MFGs were calculated for each province and compared statistically; a regression analysis between taxonomic and functional diversity was conducted to observe the relationship between these two indicators. There were significant differences in all ecological indices (p < .002), highlighting the high biomass and richness of MFGs in the Cortés and Oceanic Islands provinces (>400 g/m²), associated with the influence of cold currents in the northernmost region and less fishing pressure in protected areas. A decreasing pattern of MFG richness towards the tropics was observed, which demonstrates that in the ETP, the relationship between habitat heterogeneity and species diversity has been translated into functional complexity. The Mexican province was the most functionally diverse (biomass well distributed in the MFG; H′ = 0.46 ± 0.009). Related to this, it is predicted that biomass is biased towards certain functional groups (i.e., large carnivores), which shows that the H′ index of the MFG is not a good indicator of the conservation status of ETP reefs. Finally, regression analysis suggests that functional diversity increases at low species diversity but eventually reaches an asymptote (almost all possible functions are represented).     

San Quirce (Palencia,Spain): new chronologies for the Lower to Middle Palaeolithic transition of south-west Europe

San Quirce is an open-air archaeological site situated on a fluvial terrace in the Duero basin (Palencia, northern Iberia). This paper presents new and consistent chronologies obtained for the sedimentary sequence using post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIR-IR) dating of K-feldspars and single-grain thermally transferred optically stimulated luminescence (TT-OSL) dating of quartz. The new dating results indicate that the sequence is older than ~200 000 years and place San Quirce Level III within marine isotope stages (MIS) 8 and 7, between 274 ± 13 ka and 238 ± 13 ka. The main lithic assemblage at San Quirce comes from Level III. The predominant tool types found in this level are hammerstones, manuports and flakes, with a small proportion of cores and a significant presence of denticulates. Adaptation to local environmental conditions resulted in distinctive cultural habits, which were embedded in the cultural tradition of hominins occupying the site during the final third of the Middle Pleistocene. San Quirce preserves a simple cultural tradition that was employed by local hominins to engage in a diverse array of activities, and highlights the cultural diversity that appears to have been a characteristic feature of the Lower to Middle Palaeolithic transition 300–200 ka.