Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Studying Resource-Dependent Communities Through a Social-Ecological Lens? Examining Complementarity with Existing Research Traditions in Canada

This article explores the suitability of Ostrom and colleagues' social-ecological systems framework (SESF) for the study of resource-dependent communities in Canada. Through a broad literature about resource-dependent communities in Canada, three main approaches are identified, named staples research, rural development, and sustainability studies. Each of these research traditions is analyzed with regards to a common set of criteria – focus, scale, methods, treatment of institutions, and treatment of environmental dimensions. Research in each category is compared and contrasted with the SESF approach, to identify areas of overlap and divergence. Results indicate that the SESF is unlikely to provide additional benefit in terms of in-depth of social analysis, however, it does provide a unique contribution in terms of its coupled approach to conceiving social and ecological systems and its ability to operationalize these relationships through structured variables.     

Gene flow and demographic history of the mangrove crab Neosarmatium meinerti: A case study from the western Indian Ocean

Most marine organisms are characterized by at least one planktonic phase during their life history, potentially allowing interconnection of populations separated by several hundred kilometers. For many years, the idea that marine species are genetically homogenous throughout their range of distribution, due to passive larval transport, has been a paradigm. Nowadays, a growing number of studies underline the existence of boundaries in the marine realm and highlight how larval dispersal is a complex process depending on biotic as well as abiotic factors. Marine fragmented habitats, such as atolls, mangroves and estuaries, are optimal systems for investigating the marine dispersion process under a metapopulation approach, since populations can be geographically defined a priori as opposed to those occupying open marine environments. Within this frame, the present paper investigates the population genetic structure and the demographic history of the mangrove crab Neosarmatium meinerti within the western Indian Ocean by partial sequences of the mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I. A total of 167 specimens were sampled from six mangrove sites distributed along the East African coast, from Kenya to South Africa, also including a mangrove forest located on Mahé Island, Seychelles. A sharp genetic break between the mainland and the Seychelles is recorded, revealing the existence of two historically distinct groups that can be defined as independent evolutionary units. Gene flow along the East African coast appears to be high enough to form a single metapopulation, probably by means of stepping stone populations. Otherwise, this mainland metapopulation is currently under expansion through a gradual moving front from the subtropical toward the equatorial populations.     

Fe and O isotope composition of meteorite fusion crusts: Possible natural analogues to chondrule formation?

Meteorite fusion crust formation is a brief event in a high‐temperature (2000–12,000 K) and high‐pressure (2–5 MPa) regime. We studied fusion crusts and bulk samples of 10 ordinary chondrite falls and 10 ordinary chondrite finds. The fusion crusts show a typical layering and most contain vesicles. All fusion crusts are enriched in heavy Fe isotopes, with δ⁵⁶Fe values up to +0.35‰ relative to the solar system mean. On average, the δ⁵⁶Fe of fusion crusts from finds is +0.23‰, which is 0.08‰ higher than the average from falls (+0.15‰). Higher δ⁵⁶Fe in fusion crusts of finds correlate with bulk chondrite enrichments in mobile elements such as Ba and Sr. The δ⁵⁶Fe signature of meteorite fusion crusts was produced by two processes (1) evaporation during atmospheric entry and (2) terrestrial weathering. Fusion crusts have either the same or higher δ¹⁸O (0.9–1.5‰) than their host chondrites, and the same is true for Δ¹⁷O. The differences in bulk chondrite and fusion crust oxygen isotope composition are explained by exchange of oxygen between the molten surface of the meteorites with the atmosphere and weathering. Meteorite fusion crust formation is qualitatively similar to conditions of chondrule formation. Therefore, fusion crusts may, at least to some extent, serve as a natural analogue to chondrule formation processes. Meteorite fusion crust and chondrules exhibit a similar extent of Fe isotope fractionation, supporting the idea that the Fe isotope signature of chondrules was established in a high‐pressure environment that prevented large isotope fractionations. The exchange of O between a chondrule melt and an ¹⁶O‐poor nebula as the cause for the observed nonmass dependent O isotope compositions in chondrules is supported by the same process, although to a much lower extent, in meteorite fusion crusts.     

Climate justice and global cities: Mapping the emerging discourses

Ever since climate change came to be a matter of political concern, questions of justice have been at the forefront of academic and policy debates in the international arena. Curiously, as attention has shifted to other sites and scales of climate change politics matters of justice have tended to be neglected. In this paper, we examine how discourses of justice are emerging within urban responses to climate change. Drawing on a database of initiatives taking place in 100 global cities and qualitative case-study research in Philadelphia, Quito and Toronto, we examine how notions of distributive and procedural justice are articulated in climate change projects and plans in relation to both adaptation and mitigation. We find that there is limited explicit concern with justice at the urban level. However, where discourses of justice are evident there are important differences emerging between urban responses to adaptation and mitigation, and between those in the north and in the south. Adaptation responses tend to stress the distribution of ‘rights’ to protection, although those in the South also stress the importance of procedural justice. Mitigation responses also stress ‘rights’ to the benefits of responding to climate change, with limited concern for ‘responsibilities’ or for procedural justice. Intriguingly, while adaptation responses tend to stress the rights of individuals, we also find discourses of collective rights emerging in relation to mitigation.     

Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.     

Oysters and the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem: A case for exotic species introduction to improve environmental quality?

Restoration of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem has been a priority for residents and governments of the bay watershed for the past decade. One obstacle in the efforts to “save the bay” has been continuing nutrient enrichment from agricultural and sewer runoff. The attainability of a mandated 40% nutrient reduction goal has yet to be seen. Furthermore, disappearance of certain organisms may have had an adverse effect on the resilience of the ecosystem. The Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), once abundant in Chesapeake Bay, was a vital part of the food web, processing excess phytoplankton and depositing materials on the bottom. Over harvesting and disease have decimated the native oyster population. The introduction of an exotic species, the Japanese oyster (Crassostrea gigas), may be a way to reestablish a robust oyster community in the bay. The literature on the role of bivalve molluscs in estuarine ecosystems shows that they are an essential part of healthy estuaries around the world. A comparison ofC. virginica andC. gigas in terms of temperature and salinity tolerance and resistance to disease shows thatC. virginica is ideally adapted to conditions in Chesapeake Bay, but it is unable to stave off the endemic diseases, whereasC. gigas is adapted to conditions in the lower bay only but is much less susceptible to the same diseases. We conclude that the potential introduction ofC. gigas to Chesapeake Bay would be limited by the Japanese species’ physiological requirements but that the revitalization of a bivalve population is imperative to the restoration of ecosystem function.     

From Magnitudes to Diameters: The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Objects and the Earth Collision Hazard

A recently published model of the Near Earth Object (NEO) orbital-magnitude distribution (Bottke et al., 2002, Icarus156, 399-433.) relies on five intermediate sources for the NEO population: the ν₆ resonance, the 3:1 resonance, the outer portion of the main belt (i.e., 2.8-3.5 AU), the Mars-crossing population adjacent to the main belt, and the Jupiter family comet population. The model establishes the relative contribution of these sources to the NEO population. By computing the albedo distribution of the bodies in and/or near each of the five sources, we can deduce the albedo distribution of the NEO population as a function of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. A problem with this strategy, however, is that we do not know a priori the albedo distribution of main belt asteroids over the same size range as observed NEOs (diameter D<10 km). To overcome this problem, we determined the albedo distribution of large asteroids in and/or near each NEO source region and used these results to deduce the albedo distribution of smaller asteroids in the same regions. This method requires that we make some assumptions about the absolute magnitude distributions of both asteroid families and background asteroids. Our solution was to extrapolate the observed absolute magnitude distributions of the families up to some threshold value H_thr, beyond which we assumed that the families' absolute magnitude distributions were background-like.We found that H_thr=14.5 provides the best match to the color vs heliocentric distance distribution observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With this value of H_thr our model predicts that the debiased ratio between dark and bright (albedo smaller or larger than 0.089) objects in any absolute-magnitude-limited sample of the NEO population is 0.25±0.02. Once the observational biases are properly taken into account, this agrees very well with the observed C/S ratio (0.165 for H<20). The dark/bright ratio of NEOs increases to 0.87±0.05 if a size-limited sample is considered. We estimate that the total number of NEOs larger than a kilometer is 855±110, which, compared to the total number of NEOs with H<18 (963±120), shows that the usually assumed conversion H=18?D=1 km slightly overestimates the number of kilometer-size objects.Combining our orbital distribution model with the new albedo distribution model, and assuming that the density of bright and dark bodies is 2.7 and 1.3 g/cm³, respectively, we estimate that the Earth should undergo a 1000 megaton collision every 63,000±8000 years. On average, the bodies capable of producing 1000 megaton of impact energy are those with H<20.6. The NEOs discovered so far carry only 18±2% of this collision probability.