Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

Ensemble clustering for efficient robust optimization of naturally fractured reservoirs

In the development of naturally fractured reservoirs (NFRs), the existence of natural fractures induces severe fingering and breakthrough. To manage the flooding process and improve the ultimate recovery, we propose a numerical workflow to generate optimal production schedules for smart wells, in which the inflow control valve (ICV) settings can be controlled individually. To properly consider the uncertainty introduced by randomly distributed natural fractures, the robust optimization would require a large ensemble size and it would be computationally demanding. In this work, a hierarchical clustering method is proposed to select representative models for the robust optimization in order to avoid redundant simulation runs and improve the efficiency of the robust optimization. By reducing the full ensemble of models into a small subset ensemble, the efficiency of the robust optimization algorithm is significantly improved. The robust optimization is performed using the StoSAG scheme to find the optimal well controls that maximize the net-present-value (NPV) of the NFR’s development. Due to the discrete property of a natural fracture field, traditional feature extraction methods such as model-parameter-based clustering may not be directly applicable. Therefore, two different kinds of clustering-based optimization methods, a state-based (e.g., s _w profiles) clustering and a response-based (e.g., production rates) clustering, are proposed and compared. The computational results show that the robust clustering optimization could increase the computational efficiency significantly without sacrificing much expected NPV of the robust optimization. Moreover, the performance of different clustering algorithms varies widely in correspondence to different selections of clustering features. By properly extracting model features, the clustered subset could adequately represent the uncertainty of the full ensemble.     

Understanding geographical patterns of a city’s diurnal rhythm from aggregate data of location‐aware services

Do collective behaviors of the daily routine of a city's inhabitants form the periodical cycling of human activity at the city level (here termed the “city's diurnal rhythm”)? If the answer is yes, do there exist geographical patterns in the city's diurnal rhythm? Using a nationwide dataset of observed uses of location‐aware services in the largest Chinese social media platform, we first confirm the significant periodicity in city‐level human activity from the perspective of the aggregate degree of social media uses over a day. We then investigate geographical changes in the diurnal rhythm of human activity and its local variations in different parts of the city, and between weekdays and weekend days, over 340 Chinese cities. Our results show that a city's diurnal rhythm across the whole country exhibits both regular, nationally conspicuous shifts along geographical gradients and locally distinct spatiotemporal changes within the city. Our findings could provide insights into the characterization of the daily routine of city‐level human activity and its geographical patterns, and have potential for several issues in terms of planning, management, and decision‐making related to human population dynamics.     

Geochemistry of environmentally sensitive trace elements in Permian coals from the Huainan coalfield, Anhui, China

To study the geochemical characteristics of 11 environmentally sensitive trace elements in the coals of the Permian Period from the Huainan coalfield, Anhui province, China, borehole samples of 336 coals, two partings, and four roof and floor mudstones were collected from mineable coal seams. Major elements and selected trace elements were determined by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), and hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (HAAS). The depositional environment, abundances, distribution, and modes of occurrence of trace elements were investigated. Results show that clay and carbonate minerals are the principal inorganic constituents in the coals. A lower deltaic plain, where fluvial channel systems developed successively, was the likely depositional environment of the Permian coals in the Huainan coalfield. All major elements have wider variation ranges than those of Chinese coals except for Mg and Fe. The contents of Cr, Co, Ni, and Se are higher than their averages for Chinese coals and world coals. Vertical variations of trace elements in different formations are not significant except for B and Ba. Certain roof and partings are distinctly higher in trace elements than underlying coal bench samples. The modes of occurrence of trace elements vary in different coal seams as a result of different coal-forming environments. Vanadium, Cr, and Th are associated with aluminosilicate minerals, Ba with carbonate minerals, and Cu, Zn, As, Se, and Pb mainly with sulfide minerals.     

Progress in China’s sustainable development research: Contribution of Chinese geographers

Sustainable development has always been a hotspot in Chinese geographical research. Herein, we conduct a systematic statistical analysis of the contribution of Chinese geographers to sustainable development research using bibliometric methods. Based on the review of a vast amount of literature, we identify the main research teams, research funding sources, journals, and key research fields. The findings are as follows: (1) the resources and environmental institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have a significant influence on sustainable development research; (2) China’s central government foundations (the National Natural Science Foundation of China and National Social Sciences Fund) are the main research funding sources; (3) most of the highly cited articles are published in journals sponsored by the Geographical Society of China; and (4) sustainable development theory and its research areas are being constantly enriched and perfected. Based on the statistics of keywords, the theory, research methods, research regional scales, and key research areas are summarized and expounded.     

GIS在统计行业中的应用

地理信息系统技术在很多各业获得了成功的应用,但在统计行业中的应用却相对滞后.本文综述了地理信息系统在统计行业中的应用现状、优势及存在的问题,并对统计地理信息系统的解决方案作了简要分析,给出了建立统计GIS的技术方案和统计GIS的总体框架.     

嵌岩桩理论研究和设计中的几个问题

明确嵌岩桩的定义和分类,对嵌岩桩的承载机理、临界嵌入深度、设计理论和数值模拟方法等问题进行讨论,并对未来的工作进行论述。     

珠江三角洲软土微结构的定量研究

对用不同长度的PVC管在珠海和广州两地采得的淤泥样柱施于一定荷载，然后在扫描电镜下研究软土受压后在样柱垂深方向上的微结构变化，并将样品的微结构照片扫描，在计算机内进行量化处理。结果表明，样品的孔隙分布分维差随着离施压点距离的增加而逐渐减小，从而得到两者的关系方程。据此，可了解在一定荷载下应力在软土层中向下的衰减趋势。文章还对软土的天然含水量和围压对压缩变形的影响作了初步的讨论。     

Chinese overseas industrial parks in Southeast Asia: An examination of policy mobility from the perspective of embeddedness

The development of overseas industrial parks is a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative and an expected experimental way of promoting inclusive globalization by inventing new forms of cooperation between China and local host countries. Policy mobility, a classic theory within international political geography addressing the connection between local and global policies, has implications for overseas industrial parks development. In this paper, we argue that policies are not easily moved directly from one place to another; instead, policies are embedded due to the role of local actors in policy mobility. This article first provides an overview of seven China-Southeast Asia economic and trade cooperation zones identified by the Ministry of Commerce, and analyzes their key participants. It then discusses policy mobility by looking into the roles of revenue, land, and talent in developing these industrial parks. The paper finds that these parks face challenges, such as the complicated geographical environments of host countries, huge pressure from enterprise investment capital, the lack of overseas service platforms, and underdeveloped agglomeration economies. In the light of the current situation, policy suggestions for the future sustainable development of overseas industrial parks are put forward.     

滇、川、黔成矿区的铅锌矿源层（岩）

滇、川、黔铅锌成矿区的矿源层（岩）及其成矿作用，具多矿源层（岩）、多容矿层和多遮挡层共存的特点。矿源层（岩）改造成矿分海西晚期改造生成贫铅锌矿床和燕山期改造生成铅锌富矿床两个旋回，改造成矿的３个主因是：多条继承、发展了基底构造的深一道断层系统，峨眉山玄武岩浆上涌产生的高热能、喷气、矿质和广泛、多中心循环的热卤水，铅锌矿床为沉积─改造─后成成矿。