A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.     

A strike‐slip core complex from the Najd fault system,Arabian shield

Metamorphic core complexes are usually thought to be associated with regional crustal extension and crustal thinning, where deep crustal material is exhumed along gently dipping normal shear zones oblique to the regional extension direction. We present a new mechanism whereby metamorphic core complexes can be exhumed along crustal‐scale strike‐slip fault systems that accommodated crustal shortening. The Qazaz metamorphic dome in Saudi Arabia was exhumed along a gently dipping jog in a crustal‐scale vertical strike‐slip fault zone that caused more than 25 km of exhumation of lower crustal rocks by 30 km of lateral motion. Subsequently, the complex was transected by a branch of the strike‐slip fault zone, and the segments were separated by another 30 km of lateral motion. Strike‐slip core complexes like the Qazaz Dome may be common and may have an important local effect on crustal strength.     

Weak compositional zonation in a silicic magmatic system: Incesu ignimbrite,Central Anatolian Volcanic Province (Kayseri – Turkey)

The Central Anatolian Volcanic Province (CAVP), one of four major volcanic provinces in Turkey, plays a significant role in the interpretation of the tectonic evolution of Central Anatolia. The CAVP developed within a complex collisional system involving the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates during the Miocene. The volcanism exhibits complicated variations in mineralogical, petrological and geochemical compositions resulting from post-collisional lithospheric dynamics. The Incesu ignimbrite has 5–20 m thick and covers an area of ～7800 km². It is composed of three stratigraphic levels. The lower level (LL) shows blackish brown and glassy welded structure. The middle level (ML) is a well-welded, reddish pink in color and has large amounts of fiamme. The upper level (UL) is grayish pink, weakly welded and has rock fragments of different compositions. The Incesu ignimbrite is composed of plagioclase (oligoclase, andesine) + pyroxene (augite, clinoenstatite) + opaque minerals and low amount of amphibole, biotite and quartz. Eutaxitic texture is dominant in ML and LL samples; these levels are more strongly and contain more flattened pumice fragments and volcanic glass shards than in the UL. A sharp color contrast defines the contact between LL and ML.Major, trace and rare earth element of the Incesu ignimbrite, characterized by their rhyolite, rhyodacite–dacite composition, medium–high K, calcalkaline and peraluminous nature, show fractional crystallization primarily controlled by plagioclase, clinopyroxene, magnetite, ilmenite and titanomagnetite. Sr and Nd isotopic ratios of Incesu ignimbrite display isotopic variations between the ignimbrite levels; they exhibit a limited range in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7043–0.7049) and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.512716–0.512760). The Sr–Nd isotopic ratio of Incesu ignimbrite reveals an age of 3 Ma. The ignimbrite evolved through fractional crystallization and crystal contamination of the parent magma derived from Ocean Island Basalt (OIB) like magma. This suggestion is supported by the AFC modeling based on the trace elements and Sr isotope data.Variation of several major oxide concentrations (Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, CaO and K₂O), trace element concetrations (V, Sr, Cs and Rb) and trace element ratios (Ba/Rb, Sr/, K/Sr, K/Nb, Rb/Sr, Rb/Y and Rb/Nb) versus SiO₂ concentration show the magma chamber that generated the Incesu ignimbrite was compositionally zoned. All geochemical and Sr–Nd isotpic datas can be interepreted to be the result of a subduction related source.     

GIS-based microzonation of the Niksar settlement area for the purpose of urban planning (Tokat, Turkey)

Niksar (Tokat) is an urban area located in a seismically active zone of Turkey. The aim of this study is to prepare a GIS-based microzonation map of the Niksar settlement area for the purpose of urban planning. Liquefaction, activity, slope, aspect, fault proximity, ground amplification, and lithology are considered during the overlay analysis, using a multicriteria decision-making analysis of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighing (SAW) methods. Based on the resulting evaluations, the study area is divided into four different zones, namely (1) areas suitable for settlement, (2) provisional settlement areas, (3) areas requiring detailed geotechnical investigation, and (4) unsuitable areas. Maps prepared by the SAW and AHP methods are found to be consistent with each other. However, the microzonation map prepared by the AHP method is recommended for the purpose of urban planning because it is able to check its own consistency.     

Active tectonic and palaeoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa,NW Anatolia

The Mustafakemalpa?a Fault (MF), located among Manyas, Ulubat and Orhaneli faults, is a right lateral strike-slip and 47 km in length. The MF begins with a pressure ridge at the west and exhibits complex jog terminations at east ends in restraining left stepovers. The western section of the fault bounds Miocene and Quaternary units and continues towards ?lyasç?lar. The central segment of the fault, starts with approximately 750-m leftward stepover, exhibits a sinusoidal geometry between Kapakl?oluk and Kabulbaba. In this section, MF traverses mountainous terrain and cuts Ophiolite, Jurassic limestones and Miocene detritals, forming dextral faulting features and gaining reverse component. The eastern section exhibits left stepping en-echelon pattern and consists 2.5-km offset on the Orhaneli River. In this study, palaeoseismological findings related to the Holocene activity and active tectonic properties of the MF are presented. The trenches exposed mismatched stratigraphy, demonstrating evidence of events across the fault. We identified three events (before BC 2190, later AD 1425 and 1850) that have occurred during the past 4000 years. We suggest a long non-characteristic recurrence interval and ~0.7 mm/y slip-rate for MF, based on trench data and offset of the Late Pliocene drainage of Orhaneli River.     

The 73-day periodicity of the flare index during the current solar cycle 22

The flare index of the current solar cycle 22 is analysed to detect intermediate-term periodicities from Sep. 1, 1986 to Dec. 31, 1991. Power spectral analysis of the time series of solar flare index data reveals a periodicity around 73 and 53 days. We find that a periodicity of 73 days was in operation from 1988 November to the end of 1991 December. We also find that when the 73-day periodicity or the 154-day periodicity is in operation, the flare index is well correlated with the relative sunspot numbers. As a conclusion, we do not expect to see a resumption of the 154-day or 73-day periodicity, but we do expect only one of the periodicity near the integral multiples of 25^d.8 in the next solar cycles.     

On the SID durations

This Letter is based on analysis of data on Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID) listed inSolar Geophysical Data. The mean durations of 1272 SIDs taken from the SGD lists were calculated with respect to their associated X-ray flares. In general, all of our calculated mean durations showed a large scatter in the mean values. The comparison of our values by the estimated Solar Geophysical Data Center SID durations indicated an apparent discrepancy in the mean duration relative to that estimated by SGD for the case of low levels of SID importance. In our opinion this apparent discrepancy suggests a need for a correction in SGD's assumptions in the importance range from –1 to +1.     

Assessment of rockfall hazard around Afyon Castle,Turkey

The Afyon Castle is a tourist destination and a historical site in the City of Afyon in Turkey. The Castle is located on a steep hill, with a height of 226 m. In close proximity to the Castle there are settlements. The hill consists of trachitic andesite. The rock contains columnar joints and flow layering. Owing to these discontinuities, blocks of varying sizes had fallen down. The settlement areas near the Castle are now in danger because of the rockfall risk. In this study, rockfall analysis was carried out along nine profiles of the hill. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the rocks along each profile were investigated. The results of the analyses were evaluated, and the areas delineated as susceptible to rockfall risk are highlighted. Remedial measures including rock bolts and protective fences were suggested on the basis of the field observations and the rockfall risk evaluation.     

Simultaneous parameter identification of a heterogeneous aquifer system using artificial neural networks

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is proposed for the simultaneous determination of transmissivity and storativity distributions of a heterogeneous aquifer system. ANNs may be useful tools for parameter identification problems due to their ability to solve complex nonlinear problems. As an extension of previous study—Karahan H, Ayvaz MT (2006) Forecasting aquifer parameters using artificial neural networks, J Porous Media 9(5):429–444—the performance of the proposed ANN model is tested on a two-dimensional hypothetical aquifer system for transient flow conditions. In the proposed ANN model, Cartesian coordinates of observation wells, associated piezometric heads and observation time are used as inputs while corresponding transmissivity and storativity values are used as outputs. The training, validation and testing processes of the ANN model are performed under two scenarios. In scenario 1, all the sampled data are used through the simulation time. However, in the scenario 2, there are data gaps due to irregular observations. By using the determined synaptic network weights, transmissivity and storativity distributions are predicted. In addition, the performance of the proposed ANN is tested for different noise data conditions. Results showed that the developed ANN model may be used in simultaneous aquifer parameter estimation problems.