Detectability of Summer Dryness Caused by Greenhouse Warming

This study investigates the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture associated with global warming as simulated by long-term integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model conducted earlier. Starting from year 1765, integrations of the coupled model for 300 years were performed for three scenarios: increasing greenhouse gases only, increasing sulfate-aerosol loading only and the combination of both radiative forcings. The integration with the combined radiative forcings reproduces approximately the observed increases of global mean surface air temperature during the 20th century. Analysis of this integration indicates that both summer dryness and winter wetness occur in middle-to-high latitudes of North America and southern Europe. These features were identified in earlier studies. However, in the southern part of North America where the percentage reduction of soil moisture during summer is quite large, soil moisture is decreased for nearly the entire annual cycle in response to greenhouse warming. A similar observation applies to other semi-arid regions in subtropical to middle latitudes such as central Asia and the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, annual mean runoff is greatly increased in high latitudes because of increased poleward transport of moisture in the warmer model atmosphere. An analysis of the central North American and southern European regions indicates that the time when the change of soil moisture exceeds one standard deviation about the control integration occurs considerably later than that of surface air temperature for a given experiment because the ratio of forced change to natural variability is much smaller for soil moisture compared with temperature. The corresponding lag time for runoff change is even greater than that of either precipitation or soil moisture for the same reason. Also according to the above criterion, the inclusion of the effect of sulfate aerosols in the greenhouse warming experiment delays the noticeable change of soil moisture by several decades. It appears that observed surface air temperature is a better indicator of greenhouse warming than hydrologic quantities such as precipitation, runoff and soil moisture. Therefore, we are unlikely to notice definitive CO₂-induced continental summer dryness until several decades into the 21st century.     

Predictability of storm wave heights in the ice-free Beaufort Sea

A predictability study on wave forecast of the Arctic Ocean is necessary to help identify hazardous areas and ensure sustainable shipping along the trans-Arctic routes. To assist with validation of the Arctic Ocean wave model, two drifting wave buoys were deployed off Point Barrow, Alaska for two months in September 2016. Both buoys measured significant wave heights exceeding 4 m during two different storm events on 19 September and 22 October. The NOAA-WAVEWATCH III^? model with 16-km resolution was forced using wind and sea ice reanalysis data and obtained general agreement with the observation. The September storm was reproduced well; however, model accuracy deteriorated in October with a negative wave height bias of around 1 m during the October storm. Utilising reanalysis data, including the most up-to-date ERA5, this study investigated the cause: grid resolution, wind and ice forcing, and in situ sea level pressure observations assimilated for reanalysis. The analysis has found that there is a 20% reduction of in situ SLP observations in the area of interest, presumably due to fewer ships and deployment options during the sea ice advance period. The 63-member atmospheric ensemble reanalysis, ALERA2, has shown that this led to a larger ensemble spread in the October monthly mean wind field compared to September. Since atmospheric physics is complex during sea ice advance, it is speculated that the elevated uncertainty of synoptic-scale wind caused the negative wave model bias. This has implications for wave hindcasts and forecasts in the Arctic Ocean.     

Vertical material flux under seasonal sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea north of Hokkaido, Japan

Downward material fluxes under seasonal sea ice were measured using a time-series sediment trap installed at an offshore site in the Okhotsk Sea north of Hokkaido, Japan, from 13 January to 23 March 2005. The maximum fluxes of lithogenic material (753 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and organic matter (mainly detritus; 333 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) were recorded during the period in which sea ice drifted ashore and increased in extent, from 13 January to 9 February. Organic matter as fecal pellets (81–93 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and opal as biosilica (51–67 mg m⁻² day⁻¹), representing diatom fluxes, were abundant in sediment trap samples obtained during the period of full sea ice coverage from 10 February to 9 March. Microscopic observations revealed that fecal pellets were largely diatom frustules, suggesting that zooplankton actively grazed on ice algae during the period of full sea ice coverage. During the period of retreating sea ice, from 10 to 23 March, the phytoplankton flux showed a rapid increase (from 9.5 to 22.5 × 10⁶ cells m⁻² day⁻¹), reflecting their release into the water column as the sea ice melted. Our results demonstrate that the quantity and quality of sinking biogenic and lithogenic materials vary with the seasonal extent of sea ice in mid-winter.     

A basic study on the application of LRFD in “the technical standard for port and harbour facilities in Japan”: a case of gravity type quay wall in a persistent design situation

ABSTRACT

The Partial Factor Method (PFM) based on the Level 1 reliability design method was introduced in 2007 to the Technical Standards for Port and Harbour Facilities (TSPHF-2007) in Japan. After nearly 10 years of practical use of TSPHF-2007, the design standard has been revised based on requests from the practitioners who recommend the transition from the PFM to the Load Resistance Factor Design (LRFD). In this paper, we discuss the setting method of the target failure probability to determine the partial factors based on code calibration. Furthermore, we examine the impacts of implementing the LRFD concept to the TSPHF by taking the sliding and overturning of a gravity type quay wall as an example to represent port and harbour facilities. We found no practical difference in caisson width derived using the LRFD and the PFM, whereas the degree of matching of the target failure probability was somewhat more precise for the PFM. This finding indicates that the LRFD is a more reasonable design method than the PFM in terms of the simplicity of the performance function itself and the ease of engineering interpretation during the design procedure.     

霞浦湖沉积物需氧速率的研究

１９９５年２月,用大口径采样器采集日本霞浦湖土浦湾和湖心柱状沉积物样品,在２０℃恒温蔽光封闭条件下,研究了该湖泊沉积物需氧（ＳＯＤ）速率及实验前后上覆水和间隙水中形态营养物浓度变化,结果表明,实验初期（０－５ｈ）ＳＯＤ速率随时间呈线性上升,大于５ｈ后呈非线性下降,对线性部分计算的ＳＯＤ速率约在０．６－１．８ｍｇ／（ｍ＾２．ｄ）之间,实验发现,上覆水和表层间隙水中形态营养物Ｆｅ（Ⅱ）,ＮＨ＾＋４－Ｎ     

An investigation of cloud cover change in response to thermal forcing

The role of cloud cover in determining the sensitivity of climate has been a source of great uncertainty. This article reviews the distributions of cloud cover change from several climate sensitivity experiments conducted at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA (GFDL) and other institutions. Two of the sensitivity experiments conducted at GFDL used a general circulation model with a limited computational domain and idealized geography, whereas three other experiments were conducted by the use of a global model with realistic geography. A thermal forcing imposed was either a change of solar constant or that of the CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere. It was found that in all five cases, clouds were decreased in the moist, convectively active regions such as the tropical and middle latitude rainbelts, whereas they increased in the stable region near the model surface from middle to higher latitudes. In addition, cloud also increased in the lower model stratosphere and generally decreased in the middle and upper troposphere for practically all latitudes.A comparison of the cloud changes obtained from investigations carried out at other institutions reveals certain qualitative (but not necessarily quantitative) similarities to the GFDL results. These similarities include a general reduction of tropospheric cloud cover especially in the vicinity of the rainbelts, a general increase of lower stratospheric cloud cover for almost all latitudes and an increase of low stratiform cloud in high latitudes.     

On sexual dimorphism in Paleoparadoxia tabatai

Abstract Upon studying the well preserved skulls referred to Paleoparadoxia tabatai from Japan, the short and low skull of the Yanagawa specimen requires an explanation. Six cranial and dental characters lead us to suggest that the Yanagawa individual is a female while the Izumi, Ohnohara, and Itsukaichi skulls are male. The important characters in the Yanagawa skull are its shortness and shallow depth, less pronounced sagittal and nuchal crests, smaller zygoma, and the small dentition with especially poorly erupted canines, most of which are indicative of weak masticatory musculature.     

Anomalous behavior of cristobalite in helium under high pressure

We have investigated the high-pressure behavior of cristobalite in helium by powder X-ray diffraction. Cristobalite transformed to a new phase at about 8 GPa. This phase is supposed to have a molar volume of about 30 % larger than cristobalite, suggesting the dissolution of helium atoms in its interstitial voids. On further compression, the new phase transformed to a different phase which showed an X-ray diffraction pattern similar to cristobalite X-I at about 21 GPa. On the other hand, when the new phase was decompressed, it transformed to another new phase at about 7 GPa, which is also supposed to have a molar volume of about 25 % larger than cristobalite. On further decompression, the second new phase transformed to cristobalite II at about 2 GPa. In contrast to cristobalite, quartz did not show anomalous behavior in helium. The behavior of cristobalite in helium was also consistent with that in other mediums up to about 8 GPa, where the volume of cristobalite became close to that of quartz. These results suggest that dissolution of helium may be controlled not only by the density (amount of voids) but also by the network structure of SiO₄ tetrahedra (topology of voids).     

Adjustable vertical vibration isolator with a variable ellipse curve mechanism

This paper presents a passive vertical quasi‐zero‐stiffness vibration isolator intended for relatively small objects. The present isolator has features of compactness, long stroke, and adjustability to various load capabilities. To realize these features, we use constant‐force springs, which sustain constant load regardless of their elongation, and propose a variable ellipse curve mechanism that is inspired by the principle of ellipsographs. The variable ellipse curve mechanism can convert the restoring force of the horizontally placed constant‐force springs to the vertical restoring force of the vibration isolator. At the same time as converting the direction, the vertical restoring force can be adjusted by changing the ratio of the semi‐minor axis to the semi‐major one of the ellipse. In this study, a prototype of a class of quasi‐zero‐stiffness vibration isolator with the proposed variable ellipse curve mechanism is created. Shaking table tests are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the present mechanism, where the prototype is subjected to various sinusoidal and earthquake ground motions. It is demonstrated through the shaking table tests that the prototype can reduce the response acceleration within the same specified tolerance even when the mass of the vibration isolated object is changed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of Vector Winds Observed by NSCAT in the Seas around Japan

In order to validate wind vectors derived from the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT), two NSCAT wind products of different spatial resolutions are compared with observations by buoys and research vessels in the seas around Japan. In general, the NSCAT winds agree well with the wind data from the buoys and vessels. It is shown that the root-mean-square (rms) difference between NSCAT-derived wind speeds and the buoy observations is 1.7 ms^–1, which satisfies the mission requirement of accuracy, 2 ms^–1. However, the rms difference of wind directions is slightly larger than the mission requirement, 20°. This result does not agree with those of previous studies on validation of the NSCAT-derived wind vectors using buoy observations, and is considered to be due to differences in the buoy observation systems. It is also shown that there are no significant systematic trends of the NSCAT wind speed and direction depending on the wind speed and incidence angle. Comparison with ship winds shows that the NSCAT wind speeds are lower than those observed by the research vessels by about 0.7 ms^–1 and this bias is twice as large for data observed by moving ships than by stationary ships. This result suggests that the ship winds may be influenced by errors caused by ship's motion, such as pitching and rolling.