Setting Wildfire Evacuation Trigger Points Using Fire Spread Modeling and GIS

Warning communities in the path of an advancing wildfire is a challenging problem. Decision makers need the most current information available to determine who should evacuate, when they should leave and what type of order to issue (e.g. mandatory, recommended, voluntary). This paper presents a new method for delimiting wildfire evacuation trigger points using fire spread modeling and GIS. Using data on wind, topography, and fuel in conjunction with estimated evacuation time, a trigger buffer can be computed for a community whereby an evacuation is recommended if a fire crosses the edge of the buffer. A case study is presented for the Corral Canyon section of the 1996 Calabasas Fire near Malibu, California, USA. The paper concludes with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach.     

Tensile strength equation for HSS bracing members having slotted end connections

In the previous study, the authors investigated the effect of w/t ratios on the behaviour of bracing members under symmetric cyclic loading in compression and tension. In this study, 11 bracing members with slotted end sections made of cold‐formed square hollow structural sections (HSS) were tested. The w/t ratios ranged from 8 to 28. Unlike the test results of other former studies obtained under compression‐oriented cyclic loading, the results of this study showed that bracing members having a smaller w/t ratio (<14) had less deformation and less energy dissipation capacity, and a shorter fracture life compared with other specimens. Such inferior behaviour resulted from early fracture at the slotted end section. This study compares tensile strength obtained from the design equations in the AISC LRFD manual and Eurocode 3 using the actual strengths of the tested specimens. This study found that for preventing early fracture in HSS bracing members, design fracture strength should be larger than design yield strength. Design strength equations are proposed for bracing members in special concentrically braced frames (SCBF). The proposed design equations are verified by experimental tests conducted under symmetric cyclic loading in tension and compression using two HSS bracing members designed according to the proposed equation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on the current structure of the thermohaline front in the southeastern entrance of the Yellow Sea during winter

A thermohaline front is located at the southeastern entrance of the Yellow Sea in winter, and it is generated by the intrusion of warm saline water into the Yellow Sea caused by a strong northerly wind. Recently, a westward transversal current traveling away from the west coast of Korea toward the open sea area along the front was reported. The westward transversal current is dominant in the surface layer during the temperature inversion period. The formation and structure of this current are examined using a numerical vertical ocean-slice model. When two different water masses meet, a front is formed and adjusted geostrophically. In this frontal zone, a horizontal pressure gradient flow by the vertically inclined isopycnal occurs under the thermal wind process in a baroclinic effect, and the cold fresh coastal water moves westward along the front in the upper layer. The barotropic effect across the front and the bottom friction effect strengthen the westward component of the velocity. The velocity of the bottom layer decreases remarkably in the increase of the bottom drag coefficient. This means that the bottom friction with the strong background tidal current causes a reduction in the current in the bottom layer.     

Practical considerations for the segmented-flow analysis of nitrate and ammonium in seawater and the avoidance of matrix effects

In this study we describe measures taken in our laboratory to improve the long-term precision of nitrate and ammonia analysis in seawater using a microflow segmented-flow analyzer. To improve the nitrate reduction efficiency using a flow-through open tube cadmium reactor (OTCR), we compared alternative buffer formulations and regeneration procedures for an OTCR. We improved long-term stability for nitrate with a modified flow scheme and color reagent formulation and for ammonia by isolating samples from the ambient air and purifying the air used for bubble segmentation. We demonstrate the importance of taking into consideration the residual nutrient content of the artificial seawater used for the preparation of calibration standards. We describe how an operating procedure to eliminate errors from that source as well as from the refractive index of the matrix itself can be modified to include the minimization of dynamic refractive index effects resulting from differences between the matrix of the samples, the calibrants, and the wash solution. We compare the data for long-term measurements of certified reference material under two different conditions, using ultrapure water (UPW) and artificial seawater (ASW) for the sampler wash.     

Recent Primary Production and Small Phytoplankton Contribution in the Yellow Sea during the Summer in 2016

The high nutrient concentration associated with the mixing dynamics of two warm and cold water masses supports high primary production in the Yellow Sea. Although various environmental changes have been reported, no recent information on small phytoplankton contribution to the total primary production as an important indicator for marine ecosystem changes is currently available in the Yellow Sea. The major objective of this study is to determine the small (< 2 μm) phytoplankton contribution to the total primary production in the Yellow Sea during August, 2016. In this study, we found relatively lower chlorophyll a concentrations in the water column than those previously reported in the central waters of the Yellow Sea. Moreover, the overall contribution of small phytoplankton (53.1%) to the total chlorophyll a concentration was considerably higher in this study than that (10.7%) observed previously. Based on the N/P ratio (67.6 ± 36.6) observed in this study, which is significantly higher than the Redfield ratio (16), we believe that phytoplankton experienced P-limiting conditions during the study period. The average daily carbon uptake rate of total phytoplankton in this study was 291.1 mg C m^-2 d^-1 (± 165.0 mg C m^-2 d^-1) and the rate of small phytoplankton was 205.7 mg C m^-2 d^-1 (± 116.0 mg C m^-2 d^-1) which is 71.9% (± 8.8%) of the total daily carbon uptake rate. This contribution of small phytoplankton observed in this study appears to be higher than that reported previously. Our recent measured primary production is approximately 50% lower than the previous values decades ago. The higher contributions of small phytoplankton to the total chlorophyll a concentration and primary production might be caused by P-limited conditions and this resulted in lower chlorophyll a concentration and total primary production in this study compared to previous studies.     

Effects of Temperature and Salinity on the Egg Development and Larval Settlement of Ciona robusta (Ascidiacea,Phlebobranchia, Cionidae)

Ocean Science Journal - Ascidians are marine benthic organisms, which attach to the surfaces of both natural and artificial substrates from shallow to deep waters around the world. Invasive...     

Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast. A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes. This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores （Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic, and threat score） are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.     

Adsorption of organic matter at mineral/water interfaces: I. ATR-FTIR spectroscopic and quantum chemical study of oxalate adsorbed at boehmite/water and corundum/water interfaces

The types and structures of adsorption complexes formed by oxalate at boehmite (γ-AlOOH)/water and corundum (α-Al₂O₃)/water interfaces were determined using in situ attenuated total reflectance fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy and quantum chemical simulation methods. At pH 5.1, at least four different oxalate species were found at or near the boehmite/water interface for oxalate surface coverages (Γ_ox) ranging from 0.25 to 16.44 μmol/m². At relatively low coverages (Γ_ox < 2.47), strongly adsorbed inner-sphere oxalate species (IR peaks at 1286, 1418, 1700, and 1720 cm⁻¹) replace weakly adsorbed carbonate species, and a small proportion of oxalate anions are adsorbed in an outer-sphere mode (IR peaks at 1314 and 1591 cm⁻¹). IR peaks indicative of inner-sphere adsorbed oxalate are also observed for oxalate at the corundum/water interface at Γ_ox = 1.4 μmol/m². With increasing oxalate concentration (Γ_ox > 2.47 μmol/m²), the boehmite surface binding sites for inner-sphere adsorbed oxalate become saturated, and excess oxalate ions are present dominantly as aqueous species (IR peaks at 1309 and 1571 cm⁻¹). In addition to these adsorption processes, oxalate-promoted dissolution of boehmite following inner-sphere oxalate adsorption becomes increasingly pronounced with increasing Γ_ox and results in an aqueous Al(III)-oxalate species, as indicated by shifted IR peaks (1286 → 1297 cm⁻¹ and 1418 → 1408 cm⁻¹). At pH 2.5, no outer-sphere adsorbed oxalate or aqueous oxalate species were observed. The similarity of adsorbed oxalate spectral features at pH 2.5 and 5.1 implies that the adsorption mechanism of aqueous HOx⁻ species involves loss of protons from this species during the ligand-exchange reaction. As a consequence, adsorbed inner-sphere oxalate and aqueous Al(III)-oxalate complexes formed at pH 2.5 have coordination geometries very similar to those formed at pH 5.1.The coordination geometry of inner-sphere adsorbed oxalate species was also predicted using quantum chemical geometry optimization and IR vibrational frequency calculations. Geometry-optimized Al₈O₁₂ and Al₁₄O₂₂ clusters with the reactive surface Al site coordinated by three oxygens were used as model substrates for corundum and boehmite surfaces. Among the models considered, calculated IR frequencies based on a bidentate side-on structure with a 5-membered ring agree best with the observed frequencies for boehmite/oxalate/water samples at Γ_ox = 0.25 to 16.44 μmol/m² and pH 2.5 and 5.1, and for a corundum/oxalate/water sample at Γ_ox = 1.4 μmol/m² and pH 5.1. Based on these results, we suggest that oxalate bonding on boehmite and corundum surfaces results in 5-coordinated rather than 4- or 6-coordinated Al surface sites.     

Comparison of Bio-P module and the Modified Bio-P module in the step-feed biological nutrient removal process

The Modified Bio-P module was evaluated in terms of the kinetic rate expression and engineering parameters, comparing the measured data of full-scale plant with simulated data. To simulate step-feed BNR (Biological Nutrient Removal), the ASM3 (Activated Sludge Model 3) with the EAWAG Bio-P Module (The Swiss Federal Institute for Environmental Science and Technology) and the ASM3+Modified Bio-P module were used. The RMSEs (root mean square error) of the T-N (total nitrogen) concentration of the effluent levels of measured and simulated examples were 2.29 for ASM3+Bio-P and 1.28 for ASM3+Modified Bio-P. In the case of T-P (total phosphorus), the RMSEs were 0.28 for ASM3+Bio-P and 0.25 for ASM3+Modified Bio-P. The annual removal rates for T-N were 0.77 for the measured, 0.69 for the Bio-P, and 0.74 for the Modified Bio-P samples, while the annual removal rates for T-P were 0.64 for the measured, 0.72 for the Bio-P, and 0.60 for the Modified Bio-P cases. With simulated data, the Modified Bio-P model was a better fit for the field data compared to Bio-P. The Modified Bio-P module reproduced the step-feed process more effectively than the Bio-P module.