Attribution of SST variability in global oceans and the role of ENSO

Based on a novel design of coupled model simulations where sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial tropical Pacific was constrained to follow the observed El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, while rest of the global oceans were free to evolve, the ENSO response in SSTs over the other ocean basins was analyzed. Conceptually the experimental setup was similar to discerning the contribution of ENSO variability to interannual variations in atmospheric anomalies. A unique feature of the analysis was that it was not constrained by a priori assumptions on the nature of the teleconnected response in SSTs. The analysis demonstrated that the time lag between ENSO SST and SSTs in other ocean basins was about 6 months. A signal-to-noise analysis indicated that between 25 and 50 % of monthly mean SST variance over certain ocean basins can be attributed to SST variability over the equatorial tropical Pacific. The experimental setup provides a basis for (a) attribution of SST variability in global oceans to ENSO variability, (b) a method for separating the ENSO influence in SST variations, and (c) understanding the contribution from other external factors responsible for variations in SSTs, for example, changes in atmospheric composition, volcanic aerosols, etc.     

巽他弧北部掸邦高原地壳变形、长期块体运动和发震过程:来自大地测量研究结果的约束

本文通过约束大地测量研究来探索掸邦高原及其周围地区现今的地壳变形和长期块体运动,以期提供该地区地球动力学和相关地震危险状况的最新状态。掸邦高原在横向上由西侧的萨干(Sagaing)断裂和东侧的红河断裂这两条主要断裂包围。其中,青藏高原地壳的韧性流挤压被认为是该夹层变形单元变形的主要因素。大地测量清楚地表明,萨干断裂和红河断裂段分别具有约18 mm/a和约45 mm/a右旋运动走滑速率。此外,掸邦高原内部断层体系大地滑移累积表现为1213 mm/a的整体左旋运动速率。我们认为相对于刚性巽他古陆,研究区域的形变分布和长期块体运动主要受区域书架型断层作用控制,其原因是掸邦高原两侧的主断裂(萨干断裂和红河断裂)存在差异性断裂活动。     

Multi-Physics ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone movement over Bay of Bengal

Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super cyclone (1999), one of the most intense tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Altogether 36 ensemble members with all possible combinations of three cumulus convection, two planetary boundary layer and six cloud microphysics parameterization schemes were produced. A comparison of individual members indicated that Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and Purdue Lin cloud microphysics scheme showed better performance. The best possible ensemble formulation is identified based on SPREAD and root mean square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most of the ensemble predictions show significant betterment with mean errors less than 130 km up to 120 h. The convection ensembles had large spread of the cluster, and boundary layer ensembles had significant error disparity, indicating their important roles in the movement of tropical cyclones. Six-member ensemble predictions with cloud microphysics schemes of LIN, WSM5, and WSM6 produce the best predictions with least of RMSE, and large SPREAD indicates the need for inclusion of all possible hydrometeors in the simulation and that six-member ensemble is sufficient to produce the best ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone tracks over Bay of Bengal.     

Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.     

On anomalously high sub-surface dissolved oxygen in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a critical role in global ocean productivity and carbon cycling. Bio-Argo floats deployed in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean provides new insights into the biogeochemical processes. Here we report significantly higher dissolved oxygen(DO) (~?310 μmol/kg) in summer of 2014–2015 for one float (F1) and winter of 2014 in other float (F2) at sub-surface layer in the subantarctic region of the SO. The summer DO peak in F1 was 10% higher than those during the summer of succeeding year, while the winter DO peak in F2 was 20% higher than those during the winter of succeeding year. Temperature and dynamic height structure show that cyclonic eddies play an important role in the observed increase in the dissolved oxygen: the high DO is a manifestation of the co-occurrence of a cold core eddy which transported the cold oxygen rich water from deep to the surface during winter, while, during summer, the high chlorophyll below the mixed layer depth (MLD) also contributed to the elevated DO. Low apparent oxygen utilisation suggests that the observed high oxygen concentration was due to high production rates over the consumption.

     

Bloom of Hemidiscus hardmannianus (Bacillariophyceae) and Its Impact on Water Quality and Plankton Community Structure in a Mangrove Wetland

An intense monospecies bloom of the centric diatom Hemidiscus hardmannianus (Greville) Mann. (Bacillariophyceae) occurred in the coastal waters of Sundarban mangrove wetland, India on 22 July, 2010. The species was abruptly flourished (mean density 8.86 × 10⁶ cells/L) resulting intense green coloration of water. The greatest impoverishment of diversity and density of phytoplankton, micro‐ and mesozooplankton community was observed during the bloom. The phytoplankton community showed an extreme reduction in diversity (12 species to one) and sharp decrease in standing stock (12.84 × 10³ to 8.86 × 10⁶ cells/L) during this period. The late bloom condition coincided with sudden and huge arrival of a clupoid fish Hilsa ilisha which forms the most potential fisheries in Sundarban deltaic region. An attempt has been made to correlate the satellite remote sensing‐derived information to the bloom conditions. The MODIS‐Aqua derived chlorophyll and TMI satellite derived sea surface temperature and wind speed maps have been interpreted.