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21.
Measurements of thermal conductivity on 106 disc specimens of rocks from 275 m of the Permian to Triassic section of the Southern Coalfield of the southern Sydney Basin have been carried out in an effort to explain a high rank gradient in the Permian coals. The samples came from six diamond drill holes north and west of Wollongong, although one hole only provided specimens of a syenitic sill (n = 17, mean thermal conductivity = 2.36 W/m°K, s.d. 0.03). When combined with previously published data on chip specimens, with which there is good agreement, from a further four drill holes the mean thermal conductivity for the late Permian and early Triassic sandstones and shales is 3.20 W/m°K.Heat generation by Permian volcanic rocks below the coal measures (from about 1 to 3 μW/m3), and by basement granitic rocks, appears to be consistent with previously reported heat flow for the southern Sydney Basin (about 80 mW/m2). This heat flow is a relatively high value for the east coast of Australia. Younger (Mesozoic and Tertiary) intrusive and extrusive igneous rocks produce local coal-rank anomalies, but do not appear to have any regional effect.The rank of coals above the Permian volcanic rocks appears to be little affected by the presence of the igneous rocks and the coal-rank decreases towards the major area of vulcanicity. Organic matter in sedimentary rocks interbedded with the volcanic rocks is of relatively high rank but it appears that these thermal effects do not extend more than about 100 m above the base of the coal measures. The area of high rank north and northwest of Wollongong seems likely to be a regional effect associated with a combination of high heat generation in basement and the Permian rocks, and high heat flow from the basement. Greater cover on the coal measures, together with an increase in the proportion of rocks of relatively low thermal conductivity in the cover, may also influence the rank in the Permian coal.  相似文献   
22.
Determining groundwater ages from environmental tracer concentrations measured on samples obtained from open bores or long-screened intervals is fraught with difficulty because the sampled water represents a variety of ages. A multi-tracer technique (Cl, 14C, 3H, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and SF6) was used to decipher the groundwater ages sampled from long-screened production bores in a regional aquifer around an open pit mine in the Pilbara region of northwest Australia. The changes in tracer concentrations due to continuous dewatering over 7 years (2008–2014) were examined, and the tracer methods were compared. Tracer concentrations suggest that groundwater samples are a mixture of young and old water; the former is inferred to represent localised recharge from an adjacent creek, and the latter to be diffuse recharge. An increase in 14C activity with time in wells closest to the creek suggests that dewatering of the open pit to achieve dry mining conditions has resulted in change in flow direction, so that localised recharge from the creek now forms a larger proportion of the pumped groundwater. The recharge rate prior to development, calculated from a steady-state Cl mass balance, is 6 mm/y, and is consistent with calculations based on the 14C activity. Changes in CFC-12 concentrations with time may be related to the change in water-table position relative to the depth of the well screen.  相似文献   
23.
Spatial reconstructions of drought for central High Asia based on a tree-ring network are presented. Drought patterns for central High Asia are classified into western and eastern modes of variability. Tree-ring based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) are presented for both the western central High Asia drought mode (1587–2005), and for the eastern central High Asia mode (1660–2005). Both reconstructions, generated using a principal component regression method, show an increased variability in recent decades. The wettest epoch for both reconstructions occurred from the 1940s to the 1950s. The most extreme reconstructed drought for western central High Asia was from the 1640s to the 1650s, coinciding with the collapse of the Chinese Ming Dynasty. The eastern central High Asia reconstruction has shown a distinct tendency towards drier conditions since the 1980s. Our spatial reconstructions agree well with previous reconstructions that fall within each mode, while there is no significant correlation between the two spatial reconstructions.  相似文献   
24.
We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.  相似文献   
25.
Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response to increases in temperature alone. CERES-Wheat was then constrained to assess the crop performance under water-limited production scenarios with different soils, and the results show that crop grain yield actually increases, largely due to CO2 fertilisation leading to increased rates of photosynthesis. Different management practices (planting dates and nitrogen application) were applied to find the best adaptation strategies. In general, `early' sowing (10th September) had the highest simulated yield, and `late' sowing (10th November) the lowest. For the soils tested, the highest and sustained crop production was obtained from Hamble soils (silt loam) compared with either the Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding nitrogen and other fertilisers would likely be necessary to take full advantage of the CO2 fertilisationeffect and to compensate, in some cases, for yield losses caused by climate change where water shortage becomes serious.  相似文献   
26.
A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO2 and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July–August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO2 forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions.  相似文献   
27.
Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.  相似文献   
28.
29.
A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.  相似文献   
30.
A modular borehole monitoring concept has been implemented to provide a suite of well‐based monitoring tools that can be deployed cost effectively in a flexible and robust package. The initial modular borehole monitoring system was deployed as part of a CO2 injection test operated by the Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership near Citronelle, Alabama. The Citronelle modular monitoring system transmits electrical power and signals, fibre‐optic light pulses, and fluids between the surface and a reservoir. Additionally, a separate multi‐conductor tubing‐encapsulated line was used for borehole geophones, including a specialized clamp for casing clamping with tubing deployment. The deployment of geophones and fibre‐optic cables allowed comparison testing of distributed acoustic sensing. We designed a large source effort (>64 sweeps per source point) to test fibre‐optic vertical seismic profile and acquired data in 2013. The native measurement in the specific distributed acoustic sensing unit used (an iDAS from Silixa Ltd) is described as a localized strain rate. Following a processing flow of adaptive noise reduction and rebalancing the signal to dimensionless strain, improvement from repeated stacking of the source was observed. Conversion of the rebalanced strain signal to equivalent velocity units, via a scaling by local apparent velocity, allows quantitative comparison of distributed acoustic sensing and geophone data in units of velocity. We see a very good match of uncorrelated time series in both amplitude and phase, demonstrating that velocity‐converted distributed acoustic sensing data can be analyzed equivalent to vertical geophones. We show that distributed acoustic sensing data, when averaged over an interval comparable to typical geophone spacing, can obtain signal‐to‐noise ratios of 18 dB to 24 dB below clamped geophones, a result that is variable with noise spectral amplitude because the noise characteristics are not identical. With vertical seismic profile processing, we demonstrate the effectiveness of downgoing deconvolution from the large spatial sampling of distributed acoustic sensing data, along with improved upgoing reflection quality. We conclude that the extra source effort currently needed for tubing‐deployed distributed acoustic sensing vertical seismic profile, as part of a modular monitoring system, is well compensated by the extra spatial sampling and lower deployment cost as compared with conventional borehole geophones.  相似文献   
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