Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.     

Characteristics of Aerosol Ionic Compositions in Summer 2003 at Lin''''an of Yangtze Delta Region

With the size-resolved aerosol mass and ion composition data obtained at Lin'an regional atmospheric pollution monitoring station in July 2003, the size distributions of aerosol mass and ionic components, and the correlations between major ion pairs were analyzed. The primary results indicate that in the period of in-situ measurement, the aerosols are mainly composed of fine particles. The mass of aerosols with size less than 2.1μm accounts for 66% of the total mass of all size ranges, in which about 50% of the mass is contributed by the particles with size less than 0.65μm. Similar to the size distributions of aerosol mass, the water-soluble ions are mainly concentrated in the size range of <0.65μm, accounting for about 77% of the sum of analyzed ions, and the ions within the range of <2.1μm reach 88%. The sulfate, ammonium, and potassium are the dominant ionic components in fine particles (particle size less than 2.1μm). Ion correlation analysis suggests that the sulfates in fine particles are mostly in the compounds of (NH4)2SO4, Na2SO4, and K2SO4, but for submicron particles the sulfates are mainly in the form of (NH4)2SO4.     

近50a江淮梅雨期暴雨的区域特征

利用江淮地区44个站1954-2003年近50a逐日降水资料，采用模糊聚类和经验正交函数分解（EOF）方法分析了江淮梅雨期暴雨的时空变化特征。结果表明：梅雨期暴雨量存在显著的区域差异，可以分为南、北两个区；梅雨期暴雨量具有显著的候际、月际、年际和年代际变化特征，南区暴雨量峰值出现在6月第5候，北区峰值出现在6月第5候和7月第1候；南区暴雨贡献率大于北区，而北区暴雨集中率大于南区；南区暴雨量长期变化呈显著的上升趋势，而北区变化不明显；南北两区暴雨量均存在不同时间尺度的振荡周期。     

北京市部分地区土壤和植物中多环芳烃的分布

研究了北京市区东部、东南部和西南部不同功能区土壤和绿化植物中多环芳烃（PAHs）的分布特征，讨论了土壤和植物叶片中多环芳烃质量分数的相关性。结果表明：车流量较多的路边土壤PAHs质量分数很高，西城区北京杨叶片中PAHs质量分数较高；相同采样点的土壤与植物叶片中多环芳烃的质量分数相关显著。     

土地利用动态遥感监测成果应用现状及信息共享策略

新一轮国土资源大调查工程中土地利用动态遥感监测项目,经过六年多的运行取得了丰富的成果和第一手数据资料,是土地管理工作中重要的数据资源,本文通过对土地利用动态遥感监测成果内容和特点、应用现状及存在问题的分析,提出成果应用建议。     

回归分析方法在地震科学应用中的问题与探讨

分析了回归分析方法在地震科学应用中存在的问题,提出了按变量之间的物理关系进行分类回归的新观点。针对实际地震问题给出了具体的分类方案,从理论上论述了不同类型问题采用不同的回归方法的必要性。通过对实际地震问题分析,剖析了现有回归分析方法的优缺点和适用条件。在此基础上,对不同类型统计问题如何选用适当的回归分析方法提出了合理的建议。     

EFFECT OF FLOW CONDITIONS ON 3D MOVEMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF PARTICLES

1 INTRODUCTION The mechanism of particle movement in the flow is one of basic problems of sediment transport research. The conventional measurement approaches usually disturb the structure of the flow, consequently inducing errors. With the development of…     

Distribution and fractionation mechanism of stable carbon isotope of coalbed methane

The stable carbon isotope values of coalbed methane range widely, and also are gener- ally lighter than that of gases in normal coal-formed gas fields with similar coal rank. There exists strong carbon isotope fractionation in coalbed methane and it makes the carbon isotope value lighter. The correlation between the carbon isotope value and Ro in coalbed methane is less obvious. The coaly source rock maturity cannot be judged by coalbed methane carbon isotope value. The carbon isotopes of coalbed methane become lighter in much different degree due to the hydrodynamics. The stronger the hydrodynamics is, the lighter the CBM carbon isotopic value becomes. Many previous investigations indicated that the desorption-diffusion effects make the carbon isotope value of coalbed methane lighter. However, the explanation has encountered many problems. The authors of this arti- cle suggest that the flowing groundwater dissolution to free methane in coal seams and the free methane exchange with absorbed one is the carbon isotope fractionation mechanism in coalbed methane. The flowing groundwater in coal can easily take more 13CH4 away from free gas and com- paratively leave more 12CH4. This will make 12CH4 density in free gas comparatively higher than that in absorbed gas. The remaining 12CH4 in free gas then exchanges with the adsorbed methane in coal matrix. Some absorbed 13CH4 can be replaced and become free gas. Some free 12CH4 can be ab- sorbed again into coal matrix and become absorbed gas. Part of the newly replaced 13CH4 in free gas will also be taken away by water, leaving preferentially more 12CH4. The remaining 12CH4 in free gas will exchange again with adsorbed methane in the coal matrix. These processes occur all the time. Through accumulative effect, the 12CH4 will be greatly concentrated in coal. Thus, the stable carbon isotope of coalbed methane becomes dramatically lighter. Through simulation experiment on wa- ter-dissolved methane, it had been proved that the flowing water could fractionate the carbon isotope of methane, and easily take heavy carbon isotope away through dissolution.     

关于地震烈度的讨论--以新疆地区为例

地震烈度是衡量某一次地震对一定区域地面影响的强烈程度，代表的是一定范围内地震动强度的平均度量，反映的是地震中人的感觉和地震对地面建筑物所产生影响的分布图象。1980年初编制的《中国地震烈度表》（中国科学院工程力学研究所，1980），逐项描述了各烈度影响下人的感觉及震害现象与震害指数的对应关系。到目前为止，地震烈度的震害标准没有改变，究其原因：这种以人的感觉和宏观、微观地震震害现象为指标的烈度评定，简单易行，便于掌握；同时地震烈度的内在含义已被许多行业以及公众所接受和理解。从第一代地震烈度区划图到第三代区划图表示的不同等值线范围在很大程度上（尤其是经济欠发达、人口分布稀疏、自然环境条件相对恶劣的区域）都是依据地震烈度等值线分布状况而确定的；地震烈度仍然是抗震救灾与大中型城市抗震设防和规划的重要科学依据和指标。     

云南地区地震视应变时空演变与强震发震地区的对应关系

在前人研究的基础上，利用云南及周边地区的地震资料，研究了1970年以来云南地区地震视应变场的分布和时空演化特征。结果表明，云南地区地震视应变的时空演变与强震具有较好的对应关系。在所研究的9个强震中，8个震前出现地震视应变异常区，5个发生在异常区内，3个发生在异常区附近。最后，对研究结果进行了初步论证。