Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Comparability of Large-Scale Studies of Agricultural Chemical Contamination of Rural Private Wells

Detection of agricultural chemicals in ground water has prompted numerous studies. Federal, state, and regional studies were conducted in the last 10 years in order to assess the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground water. The results of the studies present the number or percentage of samples with agricultural chemicals above the drinking water standard or health advisory levels as well as samples with detections of one or more compounds. Data comparison from one state or region to another are frequently referred to by regulatory and agency personnel involved in water quality and agriculture issues. Unless the history of pesticide use, method of chemical analyses, detection limits, statistical design of the sampling plan, well type, well depth, geology of the formation material, and typical land use around the wellhead are known, such comparisons can be misleading. Reporting the limitations or presenting a disclaimer should be a key element for a study so that "apples and oranges" are not compared.     

The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay

Data are presented on long-term salinity behaviour in San Francisco Bay, California. A two-level, width averaged model of the tidally averaged salinity and circulation has been written in order to interpret the long-term (days to decades) salinity variability. The model has been used to simulate daily averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51 segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-yr period 1967–1988. Monthly averaged surface salinity from observations and monthly-averaged simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement. Good agreement is obtained from comparison with daily averaged salinity measured in the upper reaches of North Bay.The salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow with relatively minor oceanic influence. All stations exhibit a marked seasonal cycle in accordance with the Mediterranean climate, as well as a rich spectrum of variability due to extreme inflow events and extended periods of drought. Monthly averaged salinity intrusion positions have a pronounced seasonal variability and show an approximately linear response to the logarithm of monthly averaged Delta inflow. Although few observed data are available for studies of long-term salinity stratification, modelled stratification is found to be strongly dependent on freshwater inflow; the nature of that dependence varies throughout the Bay. Near the Golden Gate, stratification tends to increase up to very high inflows. In the central reaches of North Bay, modelled stratification maximizes as a function of inflow and further inflow reduces stratification. Near the head of North Bay, lowest summer inflows are associated with the greatest modelled stratification. Observations from the central reaches of North Bay show marked spring-neap variations in stratification and gravitational circulation, both being stronger at neap tides. This spring-neap variation is simulated by the model. A feature of the modelled stratification is a hysteresis in which, for a given spring-neap tidal range and fairly steady inflows, the stratification is higher progressing from neaps to springs than from springs to neaps.The simulated responses of the Bay to perturbations in coastal sea salinity and Delta inflow have been used to further delineate the time-scales of salinity variability. Simulations have been performed about low inflow, steady-state conditions for both salinity and Delta inflow perturbations. For salinity perturbations a small, sinusoidal salinity signal with a period of 1 yr has been applied at the coastal boundary as well as a pulse of salinity with a duration of one day. For Delta inflow perturbations a small, sinusoidally varying inflow signal with a period of 1 yr has been superimposed on an otherwise constant Delta inflow, as well as a pulse of inflow with a duration of one day. Perturbations in coastal salinity dissipate as they move through the Bay. Seasonal perturbations require about 40–45 days to propagate from the coastal ocean to the Delta and to the head of South Bay. The response times of the model to perturbations in freshwater inflow are faster than this in North Bay and comparable in South Bay. In North Bay, time-scales are consistent with advection due to lower level, up-estuary transport of coastal salinity perturbations; for inflow perturbations, faster response times arise from both upper level, down-estuary advection and much faster, down-estuary migration of isohalines in response to inflow volume continuity. In South Bay, the dominant time-scales are governed by tidal dispersion.     

Helium isotope geochemistry of mid-ocean ridge basalts from the South Atlantic

We report new helium isotope results for 49 basalt glass samples from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between 1°N and 47°S.³He/⁴He in South Atlantic mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB) varies between 6.5 and 9.0 R_A (R_A is the atmospheric ratio of1.39 × 10⁻⁶), encompassing the range of previously reported values for MORB erupted away from high³He/⁴He hotspots such as Iceland. He, Sr and Pb isotopes show systematic relationships along the ridge axis. The ridge axis is segmented with respect to geochemical variations, and local spike-like anomalies in³He/⁴He, Pb and Sr isotopes, and trace element ratios such as(La/Sm)_N are prevalent at the latitudes of the islands of St. Helena, Tristan da Cunha and Gough to the east of the ridge. The isotope systematics are consistent with injection beneath the ridge of mantle “blobs” enriched in radiogenic He, Pb and Sr, derived from off-axis hotspot sources. The variability in³He/⁴He along the ridge can be used to refine the hotspot source-migrating-ridge sink model.

MORB from the 2–7°S segment are systematically the least radiogenic samples found along the mid-ocean ridge system to date. Here the depleted mantle source is characterized by⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.7022, Pb isotopes close to the geochron and with²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb of 17.7, and³He/⁴He of 8.6–8.9 R_A. The “background contamination” of the subridge mantle, by radiogenic helium derived from off-ridge hotspots, displays a maximum between 20 and 24°S. The HePb and HeSr isotope relations along the ridge indicate that the³He/⁴He ratios are lower for the hotspot sources of St. Helena, Tristan da Cunha and Gough than for the MORB source, consistent with direct measurements of³He/⁴He ratios in the island lavas. Details of the HeSrPb isotope systematics between 12 and 22°S are consistent with early, widespread dispersion of the St. Helena plume into the asthenosphere, probably during flattening of the plume head beneath the thick lithosphere prior to continental breakup. The geographical variation in theHe/Pbratio deduced from the isotope systematics suggests only minor degassing of the plume during this stage. Subsequently, it appears that the plume component reaching the mid-Atlantic ridge was partially outgassed of He during off-ridge hotspot volcanism and related melting activity.

Overall, the similar behavior of He and Pb isotopes along the ridge indicates that the respective mantle sources have evolved under conditions which produced related He and Pb isotope variations.     

Textural analysis and modelling of a flood deposit: River severn,U.K.

Samples of sediment collected from the Severn floodplain between Worcester and Gloucester following the severe flooding in January and February 1990, were analysed for their grain size distribution. The results show that most sand was deposited within 20 m of the channel bank, but that fine sand may contribute to flood sediment across the width of the floodplain. James' (1985) numerical model of overbank sedimentation attempts to predict the transfer of sediment to the floodplain during flooding. Geometrical and hydraulic data relating to the Severn flood are used as input for a computer program of James' (1985) model. The pattern of sediment concentrations predicted by the model was compared with that obtained from statistical analysis of the flood sediment. The patterns were found to be similar, so James' (1985) model was considered to predict in a relative sense the distribution of flood sediment.     

Inclined pipe vesicles as indicators of flow direction in basalts: A critical appraisal

Inclined pipe vesicles and stretched vesicles near the base of basalt flows have long been regarded as reliable flow-direction indicators. However, attempts to use such structures in the Santa Rosa Basalt of Southern California to determine regional flow patterns, paleoslope, and source of eruption yielded inconclusive and contradictory results. Orientations of 1070 vesicles at 37 localities were obtained directions of inclination from vertical were plotted on circular histograms. At any specific locality vesicle orientations typically are normally distributed through a 40–60 degree sector. Commonly a pronounced maximum lies within a 20–40 degree sector. Even at localities having bimodal or trimodal distribution patterns, most vesicles plot within a 90 degree sector. The frequency distribution of oriented vesicles at individual localities strongly suggests a limited direction of flow and implies a source in the opposite direction. Comparison of such «flow directions» from locality to locality within the same flow, however, yielded highly divergent results over short distances. Likewise, comparison of directions from different flows yielded results ranging from parallel to diametrically opposed. Composite circular histograms from three small mesas censisting of thin, flat-lying flows showed little apparent preferred direction of vesicle inclination. Possible reasons for the highly divergent readings include sub-flow surface irregularities, turbulent rather than laminar flow, and/or convection in the lava during cooling. Although inclined vesicles may well indicate motion in a flow, their use for determination of flow directions and for regional paleogeographic interpretations is questionable.     

Spectral development of a solar X-ray burst observed on OSO-7

The UCSD solar X-ray instrument on the OSO-7 satellite observes X-ray bursts in the 2–300 keV range with 10.24 s time resolution. Spectra obtained from the proportional counter and scintillation counter are analyzed for the event of November 16, 1971, at 0519 UT in terms of thermal (exponential spectrum) and non-thermal (power law) components. The energy content of the approximately 20 × 10⁶K thermal plasma increased with the 60 s duration hard X-ray burst which entirely preceded the 5 keV soft X-ray maximum. If the hard X-rays arise by thick target bremsstrahlung, the nonthermal electrons above 10 keV have sufficient energy to heat the thermally emitting plasma. In the thin target case the collisional energy transfer from non-thermal electrons suffices if the power law electron spectrum is extrapolated below 10 keV, or if the ambient plasma density exceeds 4 × 10¹⁰ cm^–3.Formerly at UCSD.     

A critique of the internal tracer method for estimating contaminant degradation rates

The internal tracer method for estimating contaminant degradation rates separates the attenuation effects not associated with degradation by using a codisposed recalcitrant internal tracer to normalize the degrading contaminant concentration. The remaining attenuation between the internal tracer and degrading contaminant is attributed to degradation and the degradation rate half-life is estimated from the first-order decay equation. An analytical solution of the advection- dispersion equation was used to evaluate flow-and-transport conditions that could result in incorrect estimates of contaminant degradation rate constants. Flow-and-transport characteristics that result in overestimating degradation rates were of particular interest because the internal tracer method often used to demonstrate natural attenuation can achieve remedial objectives. The analytical solution was also used to estimate the magnitude of error associated with using the internal tracer method at an example site and to explain different degradation rates estimated using tracers with different decay rate constants.     

First Results from Viper: Detection of Small-scale Anisotropy at 40 GHz

Using all available major samples of Seyfert galaxies and their corresponding closely matched control samples of nonactive galaxies, we find that the bar ellipticities (or axial ratios) in Seyfert galaxies are systematically different from those in nonactive galaxies. Overall, there is a deficiency of bars with large ellipticities (i.e., "thin" or "strong" bars) in Seyfert galaxies compared to nonactive galaxies. Accompanied with a large dispersion due to small number statistics, this effect is strictly speaking at the 2 sigma level. To obtain this result, the active galaxy samples of near-infrared surface photometry were matched to those of normal galaxies in type, host galaxy ellipticity, absolute magnitude, and, to some extent, redshift. We discuss possible theoretical explanations of this phenomenon within the framework of galactic evolution, and, in particular, of radial gas redistribution in barred galaxies. Our conclusions provide further evidence that Seyfert hosts differ systematically from their nonactive counterparts on scales of a few kiloparsecs.