A new methodology for measuring coastline recession using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation

Coastline recession is one of the best indicators of coastal erosion. Three methods for computing coastline recession – the baseline approach, the dynamic segmentation approach and the area‐based approach – have been used, each of which has one or more drawbacks. To overcome these problems, a new methodology for measuring coastline recession is proposed, using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation. The proposed method was compared with the three existing methods with respect to two simulated cases and two real coastlines. Test results confirmed that the new method is more reliable than the three other methods, all of which are susceptible to variability of recession, scale, number of line segments, length of coastlines and direction of the baseline. The proposed method, incorporating two physically meaningful values – magnitude and variability of coastline recession according to the mean and standard deviation of coastline offsets, respectively – presents itself as an effective alternative method of assessing coastline recession.     

Effect of the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics on stochastically generated rainfall time series: part 2. Impact on watershed response variables

This study analyzes how the stochastically generated rainfall time series accounting for the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics can improve the prediction of watershed response variables such as peak flow and runoff depth. The modified Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model was improved such that it can account for the inter-annual variability of the observed rainfall statistics. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series was generated using the MBLRP model, which was used as input rainfall data for SCS hydrologic models to produce runoff depth and peak flow in a virtual watershed. These values were compared to the ones derived from the synthetic rainfall time series that is generated from the traditional MBLRP rainfall modeling. The result of the comparison indicates that the rainfall time series reflecting the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics reduces the biasness residing in the predicted peak flow values derived from the synthetic rainfall time series generated using the traditional MBLRP approach by 26–47 %. In addition, it was observed that the overall variability of the peak flow and run off depth distribution was better represented when the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistics are considered.     

Effects of Location Errors in Pattern Informatics

The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (Rundle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514–2521, 2002; Tiampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429–2467, 2002). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (Thirumalai and Mountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563–3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity.     

SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios

Abstract

The Hulu Langat basin, a strategic watershed in Malaysia, has in recent decades been exposed to extensive changes in land-use and consequently hydrological conditions. In this work, the impact of Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) on hydrological conditions (water discharge and sediment load) of the basin were investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Four land-use scenarios were defined for land-use change impact analysis, i.e. past, present (baseline), future and water conservation planning. The land-use maps, dated 1984, 1990, 1997 and 2002, were defined as the past scenarios for LUCC impact analysis. The present scenario was defined based on the 2006 land-use map. The 2020 land-use map was simulated using a cellular automata-Markov model and defined as the future scenario. Water conservation scenarios were produced based on guidelines published by Malaysia’s Department of Town and Country Planning and Department of Environment. Model calibration and uncertainty analysis was performed using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The model robustness for water discharge simulation for the period 1997–2008 was good. However, due to uncertainties, mainly resulting from intense urban development in the basin, its robustness for sediment load simulation was only acceptable for the calibration period 1997–2004. The optimized model was run using different land-use maps over the periods 1997–2008 and 1997–2004 for water discharge and sediment load estimation, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, SWAT simulation using the past and conservative scenarios showed significant reduction in monthly direct runoff and monthly sediment load, while SWAT simulation based on the future scenario showed significant increase in monthly direct runoff, monthly sediment load and groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

Modeling and control of a 75 kW class variable liquid-column oscillator for highly efficient wave energy converter

The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave.     

Carbon isotope composition of Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician carbonate in Korea,and its bearing on the Cambrian–Ordovician boundary and Lower Ordovician paleoceanography

This study presents an example of locating Cambrian–Ordovician boundary in the lower Paleozoic carbonate succession in Korea using carbon isotope stratigraphy. The Yeongweol Unit of the lower Paleozoic Joseon Supergroup comprises the Upper Cambrian Wagok Formation and the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation in the Cambrian–Ordovician transition interval. Conventionally, the boundary was placed at the lithostratigraphic boundary between the two formations. This study reveals that the boundary is positioned in the basal part of the Mungok Formation based on the carbon isotope stratigraphy coupled with biostratigraphic information of conodont and trilobite faunas. The δ¹³C curve of the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation shows a similar trend to that of the coeval stratigraphic interval of Argentine Precordillera (Buggisch et al., 2003), suggesting that the δ¹³C curve of the Mungok Formation reflects the Early Ordovician global carbon cycle.     

Field applicability of self-recovering sustainable liner as landfill final cover

Preventing the penetration of rainwater into a landfill site is the main purpose of the final cover in landfill sites. Conventional designs of landfill covers use geotextiles, such as geomembrane and geosynthetic clay liners, and clay liners to lower the permeability of the final cover of landfill sites. However, differential settlement and climatic effects in landfill sites instigate crack development or structural damage inside the final cover. This study therefore investigates the field applicability of a self-recovering sustainable liner (SRSL) as an alternative to the landfill final cover. The SRSL utilizes the precipitation reaction of two chemical materials to form precipitates that fill the pores and thereby lower the overall permeability of the liner. To examine the field applicability of the SRSL system, uniaxial compression tests and laboratory hydraulic conductivity tests were performed under various climatic effects such as wet/dry and freeze/thaw processes. Furthermore, field-scale hydraulic conductivity tests were performed with intentionally induced cracks to demonstrate the self-recovery performance for practical applications. Extensive laboratory and field test results confirmed the capability of the SRSL final cover system to fulfill the strength and hydraulic conductivity requirements, even in harsh field conditions.     

Investigation of CO2 behavior and study on design of optimal injection into Gorae-V aquifer

This study presents the Bottom-hole pressure (BHP) behavior with different wettabilities and the optimal design scheme to effectively inject CO₂ into the Gorae-V aquifer. As a result, the injection rate and injectivity were increased as the wettability condition became more water-wet. However, the more wettability condition becomes water-wet, the more the ultimate CO₂ injection volume decreases. When the injectivity was 346 ton/day/Mpa at the Gorae-V aquifer, the aquifer can sustain CO₂ injection at a rate of 2,425 tons per day over this time period. A design for a complete CCS system was developed based on the existing off-shore pipeline in combination with new on-shore CO₂ transport infrastructure, and a pressure of 12.8 MPa is required at the CO₂ source to maintain this injection rate.     

Removing derelict fishing gear from the deep seabed of the East Sea

The East Sea, with an average depth of 1700 m, has long been subject to heavy fishing pressure, resulting in derelict fishing gear. Most derelict fishing gears, such as fishing nets, fishing ropes, and crab pots, sink to the seabed and do not degrade. This gear results in “ghost fishing,” which has adverse impacts on deep benthic habitats. Recently, the Korean government has started to remove derelict fishing gears from the deep seabed of the East Sea by bottom trawling with heavy hooks (50–80 kg) and ropes. A total of 207.8 and 252.2 tons of marine debris in 2009 and 2010, respectively, were removed from the seabed, most of which were derelict fishing gears. Contrary to monitoring surveys and clean-up in shallow waters, removal of marine debris from remote deep habitats is much more difficult and dangerous for removal crews.