河南省日照时数时空变化分析

根据河南省60个测站1965-2006 的年、季日照时数资料,分析河南省日照时数的时空变化,并对气候突变进行滑动t检验,结果显示:河南省日照时数空间分布由南向北递增,日照时数随时间变化呈下降趋势,1981年为日照时数发生突变的开始年,空气污染是日照时数下降的主要原因之一.     

Source of low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude in a CGCM

We study the relationship between changes in equatorial stratification and low frequency El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude modulation in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that uses an anomaly coupling strategy to prevent climate drifts in the mean state. The stratification is intensified at upper levels in the western and central equatorial Pacific during periods of high ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, changes in equatorial stratification are connected with subsurface temperature anomalies originating from the central south tropical Pacific. The correlation analysis of ocean temperature anomalies against an index for the ENSO modulation supports the hypothesis of the existence of an oceanic “tunnel” that connects the south tropical Pacific to the equatorial wave guide. Further analysis of the wind stress projection coefficient onto the oceanic baroclinic modes suggests that the low frequency modulation of ENSO amplitude is associated with a significant contribution of higher-order modes in the western and central equatorial Pacific. In the light of these results, we suggest that, in the CGCM, change in the baroclinic mode energy distribution associated with low frequency ENSO amplitude modulation have its source in the central south tropical Pacific.     

Possible influence of western North Pacific monsoon on TC activity in mid-latitudes of East Asia

The interannual variation of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall exhibits considerable differences between early summer [May–June (MJ)] and peak summer [July–August (JA)]. The present study focuses on peak summer. During JA, the mean ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical High (WPSH) divides EASM domain into two sub-domains: the tropical EA (5°N–26.5°N) and subtropical-extratropical EA (26.5°N–50°N). Since the major variability patterns in the two sub-domains and their origins are substantially different, the Part I of this study concentrates on the tropical EA or Southeast Asia (SEA). We apply the predictable mode analysis approach to explore the predictability and prediction of the SEA peak summer rainfall. Four principal modes of interannual rainfall variability during 1979–2013 are identified by EOF analysis: (1) the WPSH-dipole sea surface temperature (SST) feedback mode in the Northern Indo-western Pacific warm pool associated with the decay of eastern Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (2) the central Pacific-ENSO mode, (3) the Maritime continent SST-Australian High coupled mode, which is sustained by a positive feedback between anomalous Australian high and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over Indian Ocean, and (4) the ENSO developing mode. Based on understanding of the sources of the predictability for each mode, a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models is established for prediction of the first four leading principal components (PCs). All predictors are selected from either persistent atmospheric lower boundary anomalies from March to June or the tendency from spring to early summer. We show that these four modes can be predicted reasonably well by the P-E models, thus they are identified as the predictable modes. Using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns, we have made a 35-year cross-validated hindcast, setting up a bench mark for dynamic models’ predictions. The P-E hindcast prediction skill represented by domain-averaged temporal correlation coefficient is 0.44, which is twice higher than the skill of the current dynamical hindcast, suggesting that the dynamical models have large rooms to improve. The maximum potential attainable prediction skills for the peak summer SEA rainfall is also estimated and discussed by using the PMA. High predictability regions are found over several climatological rainfall centers like Indo-China peninsula, southern coast of China, southeastern SCS, and Philippine Sea.     

A numerical study of the effect of frozen soil on dust emission during an East Asian dust event in December 2009

There are few dust simulation studies for East Asian dust events that took place in the wintertime, when the surface conditions of the dust source region differ from those of the springtime. The soil water turns into ice when the temperature falls below freezing, and the ice might prohibit wind erosion by increasing the binding strength between soil particles. However, the contribution of frozen soil to reducing dust outbreaks remains unclear. This study investigates the effect of frozen soil on dust emission through a case study of a severe wintertime East Asian dust event that originated on 23 and 24 December 2009 in Southern Mongolia and Inner Mongolia and reached Korea on 25 and 26 December 2009 using WRF/Chem with a new dust emission scheme. Model simulations with and without the effect of frozen soil were conducted. A temperature below 0°C and relative soil saturation exceeding 40% were used for frozen soil criteria, and the frozen soil was prohibited from emitting dust. The dust concentrations derived from the simulation without the effect of frozen soil were about three times higher than the observed PM₁₀ concentrations, while the results from the simulation with the frozen-soil effect were quite similar to those of the observation data. The simulation of the wintertime East Asian dust event with the frozen-soil effect improved the model representation. The sensitivity tests for frozen soil indicate that the criteria of frozen soil used in this study are appropriate for this case study.     

Temporal Evolution of Low-Level Winds Induced by Two-dimensional Mesoscale Surface Heat-Flux Heterogeneity

Using large-eddy simulation (LES), the effects of mesoscale local surface heterogeneity on the temporal evolution of low-level flows in the convective boundary layer driven by two-dimensional surface heat-flux variations are investigated at a height of about 100 m over flat terrain. The surface variations are prescribed with sinusoids of wavelength 32 km and varying amplitudes of 0, 50, 100, and 200 W m $^{-2}$ . The Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model is used as a mesoscale-domain LES model that has a grid spacing fine enough to explicitly resolve energy-containing turbulent eddies and a model domain large enough to include mesoscale circulations. Mesoscale circulations induced by the two-dimensional surface heterogeneity may undergo a flow transition and an associated spectral energy cascade, which has been found previously but only with one-dimensional surface heat-flux variations. Over a strongly heterogeneous surface prescribed with a two-dimensional sinusoid of amplitude 200 W m $^{-2}$ , the domain-averaged variance of the horizontal wind component initially grows rapidly, then undergoes a flow transition and subsequently rapidly decays. With a background wind, the induced mesoscale circulations are inhibited in the streamwise direction. However in the spanwise direction, somewhat stronger mesoscale circulations are induced, compared with those with no background wind. The background wind attenuates the significant reduction of the low-level temperature gradient by the fully-developed mesoscale horizontal flow. Spectral decomposition reveals that this rapid transition also exists in the mesoscale horizontal flows induced by the intermediate surface heterogeneity prescribed with a sinusoid of amplitude 100 W m $^{-2}$ . However the transition is masked by continuously growing turbulence.     

Influence of reclamation works on the marine environment in a semi-enclosed bay

1Introduction GamakBay,anegg shapedseasurfaceareaofap proximately112km2,isasemi enclosedshallowwaterareawithameandepthof9mandhasbotheastandsouthchannelstoreceiveseawaterfromoutside(seeFig.1).Similarscalesoftidalwavesalmostsimultane ouslyenterorexitthrough…     

北京地区强对流天气雷达回波特征

通过近 2年的观测 ,收集了一些新的、不同类型的强天气个例的回波资料。对其中典型个例的分析可以得到北京地区的一些强天气的雷达回波特征。冰雹、雷雨大风回波高度高 ,达 1 2km ,暴雨过程回波高度仅 7km ;冰雹、雷雨大风这类强对流天气的雷达回波移动速度快 ,而局地暴雨的雷达回波移动速度缓慢。通过对多普勒径向速度图的分析 ,可以得出冰雹、雷雨大风与暴雨的动力结构有着明显的差异。地形的影响是显著的     

2005年6月我国南方雨带异常偏南的分析

2005年6月我国南方雨带异常偏南。利用逐日观测资料、NCEP再分析资料以及NOAA-OLR资料对该年6月的天气形势特征和一些主要影响天气系统进行了诊断分析。讨论了西太平洋副热带高压、低层冷空气和水汽输送等与雨带异常之间的关系。结果表明西太平洋ITCZ偏弱，热带气旋少，使西太平洋副热带高压主体长时间偏南。青藏高原南部和低纬洋面上的对流异常，影响该地区季风环流，造成水汽向低纬地区集中，西南季风水汽输送带异常偏南。高层中高纬度异常环流，抑制南亚高压东段脊线北抬，高层西风异常通过动量下传，加强中低层西风锋区，冷空气南下到偏南地区等均是造成雨带异常偏南之原因。     

2005年10月西藏高原特大暴雪成因分析

利用常规观测资料、NCEP1°×1°的每6小时分析等资料,对2005年10月西藏高原特大暴雪(115.3mm)过程进行了天气动力学分析。结果表明:在西藏高原特定地形的作用下,山脊坡引起中低层气流下沉,抬升上升气流与高层冷空气形成不稳定大气层结、高层强辐散的抽吸效应对特大暴雪发生起了重要作用;特大暴雪的水汽源于孟加拉湾和南海,主要以两条通道输入西藏高原上空;高原上空Z-螺旋度"下正上负"垂直结构和湿位涡异常区均与强暴雪有密切的关系。     

外来种福寿螺(Pomacea canaliculata)对3种沉水植物的牧食偏好及水体理化因子的响应

外来种福寿螺(Pomacea canaliculata)相较我国本土螺类其牧食量更大且繁殖速度更快,对栖息地水生植物的现存量和实施水生植被恢复的生态治理工程的成功性可能构成威胁,目前对福寿螺影响浅水湖泊沉水植物的重建缺乏足够的研究.本文通过设置不同沉水植物种类组合系统,研究福寿螺对3种常用于浅水富营养化湖泊治理的沉水植物密刺苦草(Vallisneria denseserrulata)、轮叶黑藻(Hydrilla verticillata)、穗花狐尾藻(Myriophyllum spicatum)的牧食偏好以及不同植物配置系统理化因子的响应变化,结果表明福寿螺对沉水植物植株附着偏好为密刺苦草轮叶黑藻穗花狐尾藻,而牧食破坏强度为轮叶黑藻穗花狐尾藻密刺苦草,轮叶黑藻最容易受到福寿螺牧食影响而快速消亡,穗花狐尾藻叶片也会被全部牧食仅剩下茎,而苦草存活受到的影响较小.福寿螺会导致轮叶黑藻+密刺苦草组合系统中总氮、氨氮、总磷、正磷酸盐浓度显著升高,而密刺苦草+穗花狐尾藻组合中总磷、正磷酸盐浓度显著升高,但是在轮叶黑藻+穗花狐尾藻组合中仅总氮浓度显著升高.研究表明福寿螺能够影响沉水植物间的竞争关系,但是3种沉水植物均不能阻止福寿螺的牧食;福寿螺牧食会显著降低沉水植物生物量,最终会影响草型清水态系统的稳定性.