The effects of river restoration on catchment scale flood risk and flood hydrology

A rising exposure to flood risk is a predicted consequence of increased development in vulnerable areas and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change. In the face of this challenge, a continued reliance on engineered at‐a‐point flood defences is seen as both unrealistic and undesirable. The contribution of ‘soft engineering’ solutions (e.g. riparian forests, wood in rivers) to integrated, catchment scale flood risk management has been demonstrated at small scales but not larger ones. In this study we use reduced complexity hydrological modelling to analyse the effects of land use and channel changes resulting from river restoration upon flood flows at the catchment scale. Results show short sections of river‐floodplain restoration using engineered logjams, typical of many current restoration schemes, have highly variable impacts on catchment‐scale flood peak magnitude and so need to be used with caution as a flood management solution. Forested floodplains have a more general impact upon flood hydrology, with areas in the middle and upper catchment tending to show reductions in peak magnitude at the catchment outflow. The most promising restoration scenarios for flood risk management are for riparian forest restoration at the sub‐catchment scale, representing 20–40% of the total catchment area, where reductions in peak magnitude of up to 19% are observed through de‐synchronization of the timings of sub‐catchment flood waves. Sub‐catchment floodplain forest restoration over 10–15% of total catchment area can lead to reductions in peak magnitude of 6% at 25 years post‐restoration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the arrival of peak nitrate concentrations at the water table at the regional scale in Great Britain

A simple process‐based approach to predict regional‐scale loading of nitrate at the water table was implemented in a GIS for Great Britain. This links a nitrate input function, unsaturated zone thickness, and lithologically dependent rate of nitrate unsaturated zone travel to estimate arrival time of nitrate at the water table. The nitrate input function is the loading at the base of the soil and has been validated using unsaturated zone porewater profiles. The unsaturated zone thickness uses groundwater levels based on regional‐scale observations infilled by interpolated river base levels. Estimates of the rate of unsaturated zone travel are attributed from regional‐scale hydrogeological mapping. The results indicate that peak nitrate loading may have already arrived at the water table for many aquifers, but that it has not where the unsaturated zone is relatively thick There are contrasting outcomes for the two main aquifers which have similar unsaturated zone velocities, the predominantly low relief Permo‐Triassic sandstones, and the Chalk, which forms significant topographic features. For about 60% of the Chalk, the peak input has not yet reached the water table and will continue to arrive over the next 60 years. The methodology is readily transferable and provides a robust method for estimating peak arrival time for any diffuse conservative pollutant where an input function can be defined at a regional scale and requires only depth to groundwater and a hydrogeological classification. The methodology is extendable in that if additional information is available this can easily be incorporated into the model scheme. British Geology Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Process © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Controls on coastal dune morphology, shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms

The response of a barrier island to an extreme storm depends in part on the surge elevation relative to the height and extent of the foredunes which can exhibit considerable variability alongshore. While it is recognized that alongshore variations in dune height and width direct barrier island response to storm surge, the underlying causes of the alongshore variation remain poorly understood. This study examines the alongshore variation in dune morphology along a 11 km stretch of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida and relates the variation in morphology to the response of the island during Hurricane Ivan and historic and storm-related rates of shoreline erosion. The morphology of the foredune and backbarrier dunes was characterized before and after Hurricane Ivan using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and related through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The height and extent of the foredune, and the presence and relative location of the backbarrier dunes, varied alongshore at discrete length scales (of ~ 750, 1450 and 4550 m) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Cospectral analysis suggests that the variation in dune morphology is correlated with transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the backbarrier cuspate headlands, and the historical and storm-related trends in shoreline change. Sections of the coast with little to no dune development before Hurricane Ivan were observed in the narrowest portions of the island (between headlands), west of the transverse ridges. Overwash penetration tended to be larger in these areas and island breaching was common, leaving the surface close to the watertable and covered by a lag of shell and gravel. In contrast, large foredunes and the backbarrier dunes were observed at the widest sections of the island (the cuspate headlands) and at crest of the transverse ridges. Due to the large dunes and the presence of the backbarrier dunes, these areas experienced less overwash penetration and most of the sediment from the beachface and dunes was deposited within the upper-shoreface. It is argued that this sediment is returned to the beachface through nearshore bar migration following the storm and that the areas with larger foredunes and backbarrier dunes have smaller rates of historical shoreline erosion compared to areas with smaller dunes and greater transfer of sediment to the washover terrace. Since the recovery of the dunes will vary depending on the availability of sediment from the washover and beachface, it is further argued that the alongshore pattern of dune morphology and the response of the island to the next extreme storm is forced by the transverse ridges and island width through alongshore variations in storm surge and overwash gradients respectively. These findings may be particularly important for coastal managers involved in the repair and rebuilding of coastal infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed during Hurricane Ivan.     

A method to measure the mass of damped Lyα absorber host galaxies using fluctuations in 21-cm emission

Observations of damped Lyα absorbers (DLAs) indicate that the fraction of hydrogen in its neutral form (H  i ) is significant by mass at all redshifts. This gas represents the reservoir of material that is available for star formation at late times. As a result, observational identification of the systems in which this neutral hydrogen resides is an important missing ingredient in models of galaxy formation. Precise identification of DLA host mass via traditional clustering studies is not practical owing to the small numbers of known systems being spread across sparsely distributed sightlines. However, following the completion of re-ionization, 21-cm surface brightness fluctuations will be dominated by neutral hydrogen in DLAs. No individual DLAs could be detected in 21-cm emission. Rather, observations of these fluctuations will measure the combined clustering signal from all DLAs within a large volume. We show that measurement of the spherically averaged power spectrum of 21-cm intensity fluctuations due to DLAs could be used to measure the galaxy bias for DLA host galaxies when combined with an independent measurement of the cosmological H  i mass density from quasar absorption studies. Utilizing this technique, the low-frequency arrays now under construction could measure the characteristic DLA host mass with a statistical precision as low as 0.3 dex at z ≳ 4. In addition, high signal-to-noise ratio observations of the peculiar-motion-induced anisotropy of the power spectrum would facilitate measurement of both the DLA host mass and the cosmic H  i density directly from 21-cm fluctuations. By exploiting this anisotropy, a second generation of low-frequency arrays with an order of magnitude increase in collecting area could measure the values of cosmic H  i density and DLA host mass, with uncertainties of a few per cent and a few tens of per cent, respectively.     

Secondary uranium mineralization in southern Finland and its relationship to recent glacial events

Uranium series dating has been carried out on secondary uranyl silicate minerals formed during sub-glacial and post-glacial weathering of Proterozoic uraninite ores in south west Finland. The samples were obtained from two sites adjacent to the Salpauselkä III ice marginal formation and cover a range of depths, from the surface to more than 60 m. Measured ages fall into three distinct groups, 70–100 ka, 28–36 ka and < 2500 yr. The youngest set is associated with surface exposures and the crystals display clear evidence of re-working. The most likely trigger for uranium release at depths below the surface weathering zone is intrusion of oxidising glacial melt water. The latter is often characterised by very high discharge rates along channels, which close once the overpressure generated at the ice margin is released. There is excellent correspondence between the two Finnish sites and published data for similar deposits over a large area of southern and central Sweden. None of the seventy samples analysed gave a U–Th age between 40 and 70 ka; a second hiatus is apparent at 20 ka, coinciding with the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, the process responsible for uranyl silicate formation was halted for significant periods, owing to a change in geochemical conditions or the hydrogeological regime. These data support the presence of interstadial conditions during the Early and Middle Weichselian since in the absence of major climatic perturbations the uranium phases at depth are stable. When viewed in conjunction with proxy data from mammoth remains it would appear that the region was ice-free prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.     

A probabilistic framework for correlated seismic downtime and repair cost estimation of geo‐structures

An important component of probabilistic risk assessment methods is the development of models to quantify the direct consequences of damage to geo‐structural components for a given intensity of the hazard. This paper presents a general probabilistic framework for correlated repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures exposed to seismic hazards. The framework uses as input the results of nonlinear time‐history analysis of geo‐structures for the set of earthquake records that are representative of the seismic hazard models for the region of interest. The repair cost and downtime are estimated for individual earthquakes probabilistically considering the uncertainties associated with damage states. In addition, the formulation of the repair cost and downtime accounts for the reduction in the repair requirements as the number of damaged components in the given damage state increases. An analytical linear and two bilinear regression models are proposed for conditional correlated seismic repair cost and downtime estimation of geo‐structures given the intensity measure. The proposed framework is demonstrated by developing seismic repair models of a typical pile‐supported wharf structure on the west coast of the United States. The presented framework is general and can be applied to other types of geo‐structures and hazards and can include other decision variables such as loss of life as well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 21-cm power spectrum after reionization

We discuss the 21-cm power spectrum (PS) following the completion of reionization. In contrast to the reionization era, this PS is proportional to the PS of mass density fluctuations, with only a small modulation due to fluctuations in the ionization field on scales larger than the mean-free-path of ionizing photons. We derive the form of this modulation, and demonstrate that its effect on the 21-cm PS will be smaller than 1 per cent for physically plausible models of damped Lyα systems. In contrast to the 21-cm PS observed prior to reionization, in which H  ii regions dominate the ionization structure, the simplicity of the 21-cm PS after reionization will enhance its utility as a cosmological probe by removing the need to separate the PS into physical and astrophysical components. As a demonstration, we consider the Alcock–Paczynski test and show that the next generation of low-frequency arrays could measure the angular distortion of the PS at the per cent level for   z ∼ 3–5  .