Seasonal effects of extreme surges

Extreme value analysis of sea levels is an essential component of risk analysis and protection strategy for many coastal regions. Since the tidal component of the sea level is deterministic, it is the stochastic variation in extreme surges that is the most important to model. Historically, this modelling has been accomplished by fitting classical extreme value models to series of annual maxima data. Recent developments in extreme value modelling have led to alternative procedures that make better use of available data, and this has led to much refined estimates of extreme surge levels. However, one aspect that has been routinely ignored is seasonality. In an earlier study we identified strong seasonal effects at one of the number of locations along the eastern coastline of the United Kingdom. In this article, we discuss the construction and inference of extreme value models for processes that include components of seasonality in greater detail. We use a point process representation of extreme value behaviour, and set our inference in a Bayesian framework, using simulation-based techniques to resolve the computational issues. Though contemporary, these techniques are now widely used for extreme value modelling. However, the issue of seasonality requires delicate consideration of model specification and parameterization, especially for efficient implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and this issue seems not to have been much discussed in the literature. In the present paper we make some suggestions for model construction and apply the resultant model to study the characteristics of the surge process, especially in terms of its seasonal variation, on the eastern UK coastline. Furthermore, we illustrate how an estimated model for seasonal surge can be combined with tide records to produce return level estimates for extreme sea levels that accounts for seasonal variation in both the surge and tidal processes.

Mass flow sedimentology within the HYC Zn–Pb–Ag deposit,Northern Territory,Australia: evidence for syn-sedimentary ore genesis

Laterally continuous mass-flow deposits are an important feature of the HYC stratiform sediment-hosted Zn–Pb–Ag deposit, which reveal more about the HYC mineralising system than has been previously recognised. Mass flow deposits are interbedded with sheet-like mineralised lenses in a carbonaceous dolomitic siltstone host rock. Sedimentological processes of mass-flow deposit emplacement are proposed that constrain stratiform mineralisation to the top metre of the sediment pile, based on mass-flow geometry and detailed clast petrology. Four distinct sedimentary facies are identified within the mass-flow units: framework-supported polymictic boulder breccia; matrix-supported pebble breccia; and gravel-rich and sand-rich graded turbidite beds. The boulder breccias are weakly reverse graded and show rapid lateral transition into the other facies, all of which are distal manifestations of the same sedimentary events. The flow geometry and relationships between these facies are interpreted to reflect mass-flow initiation as clast-rich debris flows, with transformation via the elutriation of fines into a subsequent turbulent flow from which the turbidite and matrix-supported breccia facies were deposited. All the mass-flow facies contain clasts of the common and minor components of the in-situ laminated base-metal mineralised siltstone. Texturally these are identical to their in-situ counterparts, and are clearly distinct from other sulphidic clasts that are of unequivocal replacement origin. In the boulder breccias, intraclasts may be the dominant clast type and the matrix may contain abundant fine-grained sphalerite and pyrite. Dark coloured sphaleritic and pyritic breccia matrices are distinct from pale carbonate-siliclastic matrices, are associated with high abundance of sulphidic clasts, and systematically occupy the lower part of breccia units. Consequently, clasts that resemble in-situ ore facies are confirmed as genuine intraclasts that were incorporated into erosive mass flows prior to complete consolidation. Disaggregation and assimilation of sulphidic sediment in the flow contributed to the sulphide component of the dark breccia matrices. The presence of laminated sulphidic intraclasts in the mass-flow facies constrains mineralisation at HYC to the uppermost part of the seafloor sediment pile, where this material was susceptible to erosion by incoming clast-rich mass flows.Editorial handling: N. White     

Tectonics of the Marmara Sea region of Turkey: new evidence from microearthquake fault plane solutions

Summary. Composite and single-event fault plane solutions for microearthquakes in the Izmit Bay area of the Marmara Sea indicate right-lateral strike-slip motion and tension on this extension of the North Anatolian Fault. This interpretation is consistent with teleseismically determined fault-plane solutions obtained for large earthquakes on the Marmara Sea seismic lineation. Consideration of the microplate geometry of north-western Turkey, inferred from seismicity as well as earthquake mechanisms, suggests that the region comprises two seismotectonic units with differing styles of deformation. The (Anatolid) structures of south- and central-western Anatolia are undergoing major extension, whereas the (Pontid) structures of the Marmara Sea region are being sheared, resulting in a mixed regime of both strike-slip and extensional faulting.     

A review of the effects of anisotropic layering on the propagation of seismic waves

Summary. This paper reviews recent work, much of it unpublished, on the effects of anisotropy on seismic waves, and lays the theoretical background for some of the other papers in this number of the Geophysical Journal .
The propagation of both body and surface waves in anisotropic media is fundamentally different from their propagation in isotropic media, although the differences in behaviour may be comparatively subtle and difficult to observe. One of the most diagnostic of these anomalies, which has been observed on some surface-wave trains, and should be evident in body-wave arrivals, is generalized, three-dimensional polarization, where the Rayleigh motion is coupled to the Love, and the P and SV motion is coupled to the SH . This coupling introduces polarization anomalies which may be used to investigate anisotropy within the Earth.     

Biogeochemical ocean-atmosphere transfers in the Arabian Sea

Transfers of some important biogenic atmospheric constituents, carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), molecular nitrogen (N₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), nitrate , ammonia (NH₃), methylamines (MAs) and dimethylsulphide (DMS), across the air–sea interface are investigated using published data generated mostly during the Arabian Sea Process Study (1992–1997) of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). The most important contribution of the region to biogeochemical fluxes is through the production of N₂ and N₂O facilitated by an acute, mid-water deficiency of dissolved oxygen (O₂); emissions of these gases to the atmosphere from the Arabian Sea are globally significant. For the other constituents, especially CO₂, even though the surface concentrations and atmospheric fluxes exhibit extremely large variations both in space and time, arising from the unique physical forcing and associated biogeochemical environment, the overall significance in terms of their global fluxes is not much because of the relatively small area of the Arabian Sea. Distribution and air–sea exchanges of some of these constituents are likely to be greatly influenced by alterations of the subsurface O₂ field forced by human-induced eutrophication and/or modifications to the regional hydrography.     

A Robust Surface Matching Technique for Integrated Monitoring of Coastal Geohazards

At the dynamic coastal fringe, numerous processes interact with local morphology. In soft-cliff environments, this can often lead to the occurrence of coastal geohazards. These can pose a major threat to property and cultural heritage, and an effective monitoring strategy is therefore essential. While contemporary monitoring techniques have been applied, these are often unsuitable in isolation. This paper presents an integrated approach, with the development of weighted surface matching software enabling reliable dataset fusion and multi-temporal change detection, even where significant surface differences exist. Evaluation of this approach is presented and discussed.