Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight)

A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.     

Open system alkaline magmatism in northern Kenya: evidence from U-series disequilibria and radiogenic isotopes

U-series activity ratios, Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic ratios and major and trace element compositions have been determined on young basalts (<10 ka) and trachytes from the volcano Emuruangogolak in the Kenya Rift Valley. The basalts are mildly alkaline and are associated with small volumes of hawaiite. The mafic rocks are characterised by high (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) (≥1.06) with low (²³⁸U/²³⁰Th) ratios (≤0.72). They have variable incompatible trace element ratios (e.g. Zr/Nb, Ba/Zr), indicating that they represent a number of magmatic lineages. The trachytes, which comprise both comenditic and pantelleritic varieties, have significantly lower (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) ratios than the basalts, with clear differences between pantelleritic and comenditic types. The (²³⁸U/²³⁰Th) ratios in the pantellerites range from less, to greater, than 1. The variations in composition and isotopic diversity must represent different sources for the trachytes. Internal isochrons for the trachytes give U-Th ages of 14 to 40 ka, similar to single crystal laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages from sanidine phenocrysts (16–38 ka) for the same rocks. Post-crystallisation residence times of the trachytes were very short, implying relatively rapid movement of trachyte from magma chamber to the surface. Variations in the initial (²³⁰Th/²³²Th)₀ ratios (0.69–1.14) of both basalts and trachytes indicate that Emuruangogolak has erupted a large range of isotopically diverse magmas over a very short period of time (38 ka), from conduits closely spaced around the summit of the volcano. Received: 29 May 1996 / Accepted: 24 November 1997     

High Resolution Stepped-Combustion Mass Spectrometry: Application to the Detection and Analysis of Fine-Grained Diamond in Meteorites and Rocks

An analytical system and operating protocol are described for high resolution, stepped-combustion mass spectrometry, designed for the extraction, purification, quantification and isotopic analysis of light elements (e.g. C and N) in fine-grained reduced components (e.g. diamond) which have been chemically extracted from natural samples (e.g. meteorites). Specifically, a simple model has been developed for the extraction of diamond from meteorite and its analysis by high resolution stepped heating under an atmosphere of oxygen. Changes in the pressure of oxygen within the range 1.3 to 12kPa (10 to 90 torr) were not found to have any detectable effect on the combustion. Results obtained by this procedure were compared with those predicted by a model and excellent agreement was found, taking into account the limitations of this approach. Results of a preliminary attempt to find fine-grained diamond in a lamproite are outlined.     

Climatic influences on streamflow and sediment flux into Lake C2, northern Ellesmere Island, Canada

Streamflow, suspended sediment transport and meteorological variables at two elevations were measured through the 1990–1992 field seasons at Lake C2, Northern Ellesmere Island, as part of the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. The objectives were to determine the extent to which suspended sediment flux responded to climatic variability, and to ascertain which meteorological variable was most strongly associated with daily discharge and sediment load. This study provided a partial test of our hypothesis that the annually-laminated sediments of Lake C2 contain a paleoclimate signal. Streamflow to the lake was almost exclusively the result of snowmelt, in response to inputs of atmospheric energy as measured by air temperature at the median watershed elevation (520 m). Sea-level air temperature, global solar and net all-wave irradiance were less clearly associated with discharge. Fluctuations of discharge and suspended sediment concentration were nearly synchronous, and non-linearly related. Daily sediment discharge was therefore linked by streamflow, with a time lag, to the energy available for snowmelt. Mean daily air temperature and cumulative degree-days above 0 °C, at 520 m elevation, were successfully used to predict the daily and seasonal discharge of runoff and sediment to the lake.This is the third in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.     

Water vapor flux at the sea surface

Methods and instrumentation for determining the rate of evaporation at the sea surface are reviewed. At experimental sites free of local influences, there is a consensus that the evaporation coefficient in neutral conditions C _EN = 1.2 × 10^–3 at low and moderate wind speeds. Combining this with Businger-Dyer flux-gradient formulas, a parameterization scheme is proposed. Evaporation of spray droplets from breaking waves is expected to cause C _EN to increase at high wind speeds, but no direct observations of this are found. Recently it has become possible to estimate water vapor flux in tropical regions from satellite data, opening the possiblity of studying large-scale evaporative events as a function of both time and space.Visiting scholar, Department of Atmospheric Sciences AK-40, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, 98195, U.S.A. (until June, 1989).     

Ground-based lidar and atmospheric studies

This review considers the requirements and possibilities for the development of a ground-based network for long-term observations of the atmosphere. This network would be specifically designed to provide early detection of changes in the composition and structure of the stratosphere. The species and parameters identified as being important and amenable to ground-based measurements are summarized, as are the currently available techniques capable of making the required measurements. Ultraviolet laser remote sensing is identified as the most promising technique for the measurement of ozone and temperature profiles which are considered to have the highest priority for network measurements. The laser techniques, and the research at JPL Table Mountain Observatory, to implement ozone and temperature measurements are discussed in greater detail.     

Vertical profile of artificial radionuclide concentrations in the Central Arctic Ocean

The artificial radionuclides ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239,240Pu and ²⁴¹Am have been measured in eight water samples collected in 1979, at intervals from surface to bottom, through the ice at the LOREX satellite camp SS near the North Pole. Differences in the concentrations and ratios of these nuclides, compared with values measured, over time, in the various water masses that flow into the Arctic Ocean, can be used as semi-independent checks on rates of flow to the LOREX stations and on residence times in the Arctic Ocean. An unexpected finding was that water labelled with low-level liquid waste from the Windscale plant on the Irish Sea is a major component of the 1500 m LOREX sample, and has reached there in no more than eight to ten years. Even from this one station in the Polar Ocean, estimation of the inventories of the various radionuclides is good enough to emphasize the importance of horizontal advection of the various supply terms to the Arctic.