Cryogenic wedges on the NE Qinghai-Tibet and Ordos Plateaus: Their characteristics,origin and OSL dating

Cryogenic wedges developed due to very cold, rather arid conditions during the maximum of the last cold event when the drying up of the neighboring China Sea resulted in the failure of the East Asian Monsoon. As the climate ameliorated and the Monsoon rains reappeared, ice-wedges developed. Further warming permitted thawing of the ice infillings accompanied by replacement of the ice by sediments partly from the host ground as well as from the surface by wind or sheet wash. In cases of extreme surface water flow on slopes after 10 ka B.P., small baydjarakhs typically c. 50 cm high developed, only to have the resulting hollows infilled by sediments carried by wind and/or sheet wash. These shallow structures form a network on top of many of the cryogenic wedges. This complex history makes dating the ages of the wedges difficult using OSL methodology. Unfortunately, past field work ignored the problem of the angle of the cut face to the direction of the wedge infilling when sampling the contents of the narrow wedges, resulting in potential contamination of the samples with the host sediment. Sampling of the larger deposits should be alright, but the likelihood of contamination makes the interpretation of the resulting OSL dates from the narrow wedges questionable. Primary wedges consisting of primary mineral infillings should still have similar OSL dates with depth for a given wedge, but the distinction between ice-wedge infillings and soil wedges is difficult since both can exhibit older dates of the infillings with depth. The available data suggests that ice-wedges were significantly more common than sediment-filled primary wedges. A protocol to avoid having to obtain large numbers of OSL dates by more careful field sampling and the use of grain size determinations is provided in the Appendix.     

An exploratory spatial data analysis of low birth weight prevalence in Georgia

Low birth weight (LBW), defined as a live birth weighing less than 2500 g, is a significant public health problem in the United States, but the complex nature of the etiology of this problem is not fully understood. Moreover, significant disparities in LBW prevalence are well documented among certain populations, particularly in minority and underserved communities. The identification of spatial patterns of LBW prevalence is a critical first step in a more complete understanding of the epidemiology of this public health challenge and these techniques are instrumental in designing valid observational and analytical studies to more fully study the problem. This paper examines the spatial patterns of LBW prevalence, as well as the presence of spatial clusters in the State of Georgia at both the county and census tract levels. Unadjusted and empirical Bayes smoothed LBW rates were mapped to visualize the spatial variation of LBW rates, and the Moran’s I statistic and the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) statistic were computed to assess the degree of spatial dependence in the LBW rates. Results revealed marked geographical variation in LBW prevalence in Georgia in 2000. In addition, these data validate the significant disparity (two-fold difference) between white and black racial subgroups as documented in the literature. Trends associated with positive and negative spatial autocorrelations illustrated variation with respect to race. Limitations of data and methods, as well as plans for utility of the results of this study for further investigation were discussed.     

Satellite-derived vegetation index and cover type maps for estimating carbon dioxide flux for arctic tundra regions

The spatial variability and co-variability of two different types of remote sensing derivatives that portray vegetation and geomorphic patterns are analyzed in the context of estimating regional-scale CO₂ flux from land surfaces in the arctic tundra. For a study area encompassing the Kuparuk River watershed of the North Slope of Alaska, we compare satellite-derived maps of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) generated at two different spatial resolutions to a map of vegetation types derived by image classification of data from the Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS). Mean values of NDVI for each cover type stratum are unique (with the exception of moist acidic tundra and shrubland types). Based on analysis of semi-variograms generated for SPOT-NDVI data, most of the vegetation cover and landform features of this arctic tundra landscape have spatial dimensions of less than 1 km. Thaw lakes on the coastal plain and glacial depositional landforms, such as moraines in the foothills, seem to be the largest features, with vegetation units having dimensions no larger than 700 m. Frequency distributions of NDVI and vegetation types extracted for sampling transects flown by an aircraft sensing CO₂ flux, relative to distributions for the entire Kuparuk River watershed, suggest a slight sampling bias towards greater cover of mesic wet sedge tundra and thaw lakes and associated lower NDVI values. The regional pattern of NDVI for the North Slope of Alaska corresponds primarily to differences between the two major physiographic provinces of this region.     

A successfully stress-forecast earthquake

A M = 5 earthquake in Iceland has been successfully 'stress forecast' by using variations in time delays of seismic shear wave splitting to assess the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. Local investigations suggested the approximate location of the forecast earthquake. We report the criteria on which this stress forecast was based.     

Microearthquakes in the TDP swarm, Turkey: clustering in space and time

Summary. The third occupation (experiment TDP3) of recording sites above a persistent swarm of microearthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault, with a larger seismic network and over a longer period of time, confirms and refines previous observations with greater resolution. The greater resolution in earthquake locations has revealed marked clustering in time and space. Many, perhaps most, of the earthquakes belong to clusters, where successive earthquakes originate in a very small volume and have similar fault mechanisms. Such studies allow the progression of seismic activity of small earthquakes to be followed in some detail, and may reveal features which are hidden in larger and more complex earthquake sequences.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – I. Evidence for anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting

Summary. The Turkish Dilatancy Projects (TDP1 in 1979 and TDP2 in 1980) recorded small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault with closely-spaced networks of three-component seismometers in order to investigate the possibility of diagnosing dilatancy from its effects of shear-wave propagation. This paper examines the polarizations of shear wavetrains recorded in the shear-wave window immediately above the earthquake foci. Abrupt changes in the orientation and/or ellipticity of the shear-wave polarizations are almost always observed during the first few cycles following the initial shear-wave arrival on each seismogram. The horizontal projections of the polarizations of the first shear-wave arrivals at any given station show nearly parallel alignments with approximately the same orientations at each of the recording sites (with one exception). It is difficult to explain this uniform alignment over a wide area in terms of scattering at the irregular surface topography or by earthquake focal mechanisms. We demonstrate that the shear-wave splitting is likely to be the result of anisotropy in the region above the earthquake foci, which could produce polarizations displaying the observed alignments. The temporal change of the azimuth of alignment, observed at one locality between 1979 and 1980, may be due to the release of a local stress anomaly by a very near earthquake.     

Shear-wave polarizations near the North Anatolian Fault – II. Interpretation in terms of crack-induced anisotropy

Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.     

THE EXPANSION METHOD: IMPLICATIONS FOR GEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH*

Geographic phenomena and our models of them are closely linked to the spatial-temporal contexts in which they are observed. The expansion method is a procedure that incorporates contextual effects into mathematical models. More importantly, it is the basis for a movement by some geographers away from the classical spatial science paradigm. The evolving paradigm associated with the expansion method represents a reformulation of the way in which geographers think about and use models, and is consistent with a more realistic perspective on the nature of geographic inquiry.     

Reconstructing the historical changes in Daphnia mean size and planktivorous fish abundance in lakes from the size of Daphnia ephippia in the sediment

The zooplankton community structure in lakes is highly influenced by size-selective predation by fish, with small zooplankton species dominating at high predation pressure. Remains of cladocerans are preserved in the sediment and may be used to trace historical changes in fish predation. We determined how contemporary data on planktivorous fish were related to the size of Daphnia ephippia (dorsal length) in the surface sediment (0-1 cm) of 52 mainly shallow lakes with contrasting densities of fish and nutrients (TP: 0.002-0.60 mg P l^-1). Density of fish expressed as catch per unit effort, in terms of numbers in multiple mesh-sized gill nets (CPUE_n), decreased significantly with increasing mean size of ephippia. The relationship was improved by adding TP as an independent variable, now explaining 90% of the variation in CPUE_n on the full data set covering lakes in Denmark, Greenland and New Zealand, and 78% if only data on Danish lakes were used. CPUE by weight of planktivorous fish and mean weight of Daphnia in the pelagial during summer were also related to ephippial size. By including contemporary data on established relationships between the sizes of egg-bearing female Daphnia and ephippia, we inferred changes in the CPUE_n, mean size of ephippia-bearing Daphnia and summer mean body weight of Daphnia from ephippial size in four lakes during the past 1-2 centuries. In a hypertrophic lake subject to periodic fish kills, Daphnia mean body weight was high and CPUE_n was low compared with those in two eutrophic lakes, while CPUE_n was low and Daphnia body weight was high in the least eutrophic, clearwater lake. Estimated CPUE_n and Daphnia mean weight in the surface sediment of these four lakes corresponded well with contemporary data. Only small changes in ephippial size with time were observed in the clearwater lake and in one of the lakes that had suffered early eutrophication, while major changes occurred in the two other lakes that had been subjected to a major increase in nutrient input or fish kills. We conclude that Daphnia ephippia preserved in the surface sediments of lakes may be a useful and efficient method to quantify the present-day abundance of planktivorous fish and Daphnia mean size. The method is particularly valid in surveys aimed to give a general picture of the fish stock and the ecological state in a set of lakes in a region rather than a precise estimate for a single lake. Though some evidence is provided, more work is needed to evaluate whether the equations are valid for hind-casting in down-core palaeoecological studies.