A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual “no policy” scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of “shared socio-economic (reference) pathways”. Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by “shared climate policy assumptions” capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers.     

A study of marine pollution caused by the release of metals into seawater following acid spills

This study examined the potential metal pollution induced by the accidental spill of different acids into seawater. The acids sink to the bottom according to their densities and subsequently react with marine sediments. The acids selected for this study were acetic, hydrochloric, nitric, sulfuric, and phosphoric acids; the metallic elements selected were Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn. The sediment was collected in Brest Harbour. The percentages of metals released from this sediment in the presence of various concentrations of acids in seawater were important; concentrations of approximately 7 mg L⁻¹ for Mn and 60 mg L⁻¹ for Zn were observed under our experimental conditions. We also examined the rate of release of these metals from the sediment into the seawater in the presence of the different acids and under different experimental conditions. We found that most of the metallic elements were released from the sediments into the seawater during the first fifteen minutes of exposure. After this time, a high degree of pollution was induced if acids leached into seawater were not rapidly diluted.     

An opportunity to connect the morphodynamics of alternate bars with their sedimentary products

Field investigations that help clarify local sedimentary processes involved in the migration of alternate bars as a consequence of flood events are lacking. A simple approach combining scour chains, stratigraphy and frequent bathymetric surveys is proposed to connect the dynamics of free migrating alternate bars present in disconnected channels of large sandy‐gravelly rivers with their sedimentary products and vice versa. The results show that the spatial distribution of bars before a flood partly governs the scour and fill processes and that the sediment transport rates vary significantly on a single cross‐section. This can be due to preferential axes of the migration of the bars determined by their location on the cross‐section, the bank direction and the discharge. The approach allows the reconstruction of local sedimentary processes involved in alternate bar migration by combining maximum scour depths reached during a flood with frequent channel bed topography surveys and post‐flood stratigraphy. It is also possible to distinguish deposited and preserved sediments compared with sediments by‐passed during the flood. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deep structure, recent deformation and analog modeling of the Gulf of Cadiz accretionary wedge: Implications for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake

The Gulf of Cadiz spans the plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia west of the Betic-Rif mountain belt. A narrow east dipping subduction zone descends beneath the Gulf of Cadiz and the straits of Gibraltar. The deep crustal structure of the Gulf and the adjacent SW Iberian and Moroccan margins is constrained by numerous multi-channel seismic reflection and wide-angle seismic surveys. A compilation of these existing studies is presented in the form of depth to basement, sediment thickness, depth to Moho and crustal thickness maps. These structural maps image an E-W trending trough, with thin (< 10 km) crust beneath the Gulf of Cadiz. This trough is filled by an eastward thickening wedge of sediments, reaching a thickness of 10-15 km in the eastern Gulf. These sediments are tectonically deformed, primarily along a series of westward-vergent thrust faults and represent a 200-250 km wide accretionary wedge. The northern and especially the southern limits of the accretionary wedge are marked by sharp morphological lineaments showing evidence of recent deformation. These tectonic limits are situated in an internal position with respect to the Miocene deformation front (external Betic and Rif allocthons), which has been abandoned. At the western boundary of the accretionary wedge, near the adjacent Seine and Horseshoe abyssal plains, an E-W trending basement high (Coral Patch Ridge) can be seen indenting the deformation front in an asymmetric manner. Analog modeling is performed using granular materials accreted against a semicircular backstop (representing the basement of the Rif and Betic mountain belts). The modeling initially produces a symmetric, arcuate accretionary wedge. The ensuing collision of an oblique rigid indenter retards accretion on one side, resulting in an embayment and a locally steeper deformation front. The deformation pattern observed in morphology and high-resolution seismic profiles suggests the accretionary wedge and underlying subduction system is still active. The implications of active subduction for the source region of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and the regional seismic hazard assessment are discussed.     

Dating multistage paleofluid percolations: A K-Ar and O/O study of fracture illites from altered Hercynian plutonites at the basement/cover interface (Poitou High, France)

Isotopic age determination of fluid events in basement fractures is of prime importance for the reconstruction of paleo-hydraulic regimes. However, material from fracture or wall-rock is not generally easily dated. In the case of fractures filled by minerals such as phyllosilicates, it can be expected that subsequent fluid circulation may cause partial alteration or recrystallization of the previous phyllosilicates, disturbing the isotope signature. Using a specific methodology, including the extraction process without contamination of the finest (<0.2 μm) authigenic fractions, identification of clay fractions by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy, and electron microprobe, analysis of stable isotope composition (D/H, δ¹⁸O) and K-Ar dating, fluid event ages can be estimated. This methodology was applied to the northwestern margin of the French Massif Central, where basinal brines have interacted with the sedimentary cover (infra-Toarcian formations) and the fractured Hercynian crystalline basement. During periods of unknown age, precipitates from brines sealed most basement fractures as carbonates, and a recrystallization of early Hercynian phengite (+chlorite) into illite and illite/smectite minerals occurred in the earlier fractures.XRD patterns show that the clay fraction is dominated by illite and ordered mixed-layer minerals having a relatively high amount of illite (I-S R3). In the shallowest samples beneath the paleo-surface, a late assemblage is identified as a mixture of I-S minerals, a part of them being characterized by significant amounts of swelling layers (I-S R0).The δD values of the clay fractions are fairly constant around −50 ± 10‰, but δ¹⁸O values of the same clay fractions display a wide range from 8‰ to 18‰ (SMOW). The study of the size fractions between 2 and 0.2 μm reveals a correlation between K-Ar ages and δ¹⁸O values, which cannot be related to a change in the relative amounts of clay minerals. Deep fractures (at depths of 570 and 923 m) are characterized by δ¹⁸O values around 10.3 ± 0.4‰ SMOW and old ages ranging from 253 to 272 Ma. The finest fractions (<0.2 μm) of clays located at shallow level (<300 m) beneath the paleo-surface yield the highest δ¹⁸O values (15.7-18.2‰) and the youngest K-Ar dates (188 to 198 Ma). These dates are likely to record the extensional episode and thermal anomaly related to the rifting of central Atlantic Ocean (c. 190 Ma). The other important thermal/extensional episode which affected the Aquitaine Basin, namely the opening of the Gascogne gulf at c. 120 Ma, is not detected by the K-Ar method on the clay fractions. We believe that resetting of clay-type K-Ar ages linked to recrystallization was favoured in the upper part of the basement where the ancient (Hercynian) clay minerals were destabilized by subaerial low-temperature alteration during Permo-Triassic times.From a methodologic point of view, the analytical characterization of several size fractions of clays from reactivated fractures, using both stable isotope geochemistry and K-Ar isotope geochemistry, can be considered as a powerful tool for dating fluid events when no suitable material for conventional methods is available.     

Estimation of PM20 emissions by wind erosion: main sources of uncertainties

The physics of the two processes (saltation and sandblasting) leading to fine mineral dust emissions by wind erosion in arid or semi-arid areas has been detailed and modeled. The combination of these two models has led to a physically explicit Dust Production Model (DPM). In this work, sensitivity tests are performed with the DPM to determine the nature of the main soil parameters that control dust emissions by sandblasting. It is found that the soil roughness length and the dry size distribution of the soil aggregates constituting the loose wind erodible fraction of the topsoil have the greatest influence on the soil potential for mineral dust production. Contrary to what is often assumed, soil texture is not a relevant parameter.In the light of these new findings, results of vertical flux measurements performed over a wide variety of sources in Niger and the US south west (14 soils) have been reanalyzed. Results show (1) that for the tested soils the DPM, and hence sandblasting, explain all dust emissions, and (2) that 13 of the 14 soils that had been selected a priori for their high potential for dust emissions contained a fine soil-aggregate component. This is consistent with the sensitivity tests indicating that the presence of such a component could enhance dust emissions by one order of magnitude. Finally, it can be concluded that most of the apparent scatter in the experimental results was in large part due to an inappropriate choice of soil parameters to interpret them.     

Flushing times for the Providence River based on tracer experiments

The flushing time of the Providence River was estimated using three different data sets and three different methodologies. Dye concentrations were measured following instantaneous dye releases during wet weather experiments performed by the Narragansett Bay Project between October 1988 and June 1989. These data were analyzed to obtain flushing time estimates. Salinity measurements collected during the Sinbadd (Sampling In Narragansett Bay All During the Day) cruises, Spray (Sampling the Providence River All Year) cruises and wet weather experiments were used with the fraction of fresh water method and box model to calculate flushing time. The Sinbadd cruises performed 4 seasonal surveys at 22 stations in Narragansett Bay during 1986 to obtain a view of the whole Narragansett Bay with respect to the concentrations of nutrients and trace metals. The Spray cruises collected data in the Providence River at 10 stations to determine the relationship of nutrients and trace metals concentrations in the Seekonk and Providence rivers as a function of point source inputs. Based on the flushing time estimates, an exponential relationship between freshwater inflow and flushing time was developed (correlation coefficient of 0.826). The flushing time ranged from 0.8 d at high (90 m³ m^?1) freshwater inflows to 4.4 d at low (20 m³ s^?1) freshwater inflows. The average flushing time of the Providence River was estimated as 2.5 d for the mean freshwater inflow of 42.3 m³ s^?1.     

Deep circulation driven by strong vertical mixing in the Timor Basin

The importance of deep mixing in driving the deep part of the overturning circulation has been a long debated question at the global scale. Our observations provide an illustration of this process at the Timor Basin scale of ～1000 km. Long-term averaged moored velocity data at the Timor western sill suggest that a deep circulation is present in the Timor Basin. An inflow transport of ～0.15 Sv is observed between 1600 m and the bottom at 1890 m. Since the basin is closed on its eastern side below 1250 m depth, a return flow must be generated above 1600 m with a ～0.15 Sv outflow. The vertical turbulent diffusivity is inferred from a heat and transport balance at the basin scale and from Thorpe scale analysis. Basin averaged vertical diffusivity is as large as 1 × 10^?3 m² s^?1. Observations are compared with regional low-resolution numerical simulations, and the deep observed circulation is only recovered when a strong vertical diffusivity resulting from the parameterization of internal tidal mixing is considered. Furthermore, the deep vertical mixing appears to be strongly dependent on the choice of the internal tide mixing parameterization and also on the prescribed value of the mixing efficiency.