Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.     

The carbon-sequestration potential of a global afforestation program

We analyzed the changes in the carbon cycle that could be achieved with a global, largescale afforestation program that is economically, politically, and technically feasible. We estimated that of the areas regarded as suitable for large-scale plantations, only about 345 million ha would actually be available for plantations and agroforestry for the sole purpose of sequestering carbon. The maximum annual rate of carbon fixation (1.48 Gt/yr) would only be achieved 60 years after the establishment of the plantations - 1.14 Gt by above-ground biomass and 0.34 Gt by below-ground biomass. Over the period from 1995 to 2095, a total of 104 Gt of carbon would be sequestered. This is substantially lower than the amount of carbon required to offset current carbon emissions (3.8 Gt/yr) in order to stabilize the carbon content of the atmosphere.     

The design and testing of small,low-cost GPS-tracked surface drifters

We have designed and constructed drifters appropriate for use in regions characterized by limited horizontal extent. The drifters follow the upper 30 cm of surface currents, but can be modified to follow water at any depth. The drifters store their latitude and longitude internally, and transmit their current latitude and longitude to a handheld Global Positioning System (GPS)-radio receiver, making their location and subsequent retrieval straight forward A field test of six drifters in Hog Island Bay, Virginia, United States, in August 2003 was successful and led to several design improvements. With simple construction and a total materials cost of under U.S.$200 this design will make drifters an accessible part of interdisciplinary experiments, provide a potentially valuable educational tool, and make experiments that require large numbers of drifters more cost-effective.     

Hornblende alteration and fluid inclusions in Kärdla impact crater,Estonia: Evidence for impact‐induced hydrothermal activity

Abstract— The well‐preserved Kärdla impact crater, on Hiiumaa Island, Estonia, is a 4 km diameter structure formed in a shallow Ordovician sea ?455 Ma ago into a target composed of thin (?150 m) unconsolidated sedimentary layer above a crystalline basement composed of migmatite granites, amphibolites and gneisses. The fractured and crushed amphibolites in the crater area are strongly altered and replaced with secondary chloritic minerals. The most intensive chloritization is found in permeable breccias and heavily shattered basement around and above the central uplift. Alteration is believed to have resulted from convective flow of hydrothermal fluids through the central areas of the crater. Chloritic mineral associations suggest formation temperatures of 100–300 °C, in agreement with the most frequent quartz fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures of 150–300 °C in allochthonous breccia. The rather low salinity of fluids in Kärdla crater (<13 wt% NaCl_eq) suggests that the hydrothermal system was recharged either by infiltration of meteoric waters from the crater rim walls raised above sea level after the impact, or by invasion of sea water through the disturbed sedimentary cover and fractured crystalline basement. The well‐developed hydrothermal system in Kärdla crater shows that the thermal history of the shock‐heated and uplifted rocks in the central crater area, rather than cooling of impact melt or suevite sheets, controlled the distribution and intensity of the impact‐induced hydrothermal processes.     

The depositional architecture and facies variability of shelf deltas in the Eocene Battfjellet Formation,Nathorst Land,Spitsbergen

Deltas are commonly classified according to their plan‐view morphology as either river‐dominated, tide‐dominated or wave‐dominated. However, most deltas form under the mixed influence of these processes, commonly with laterally varying process regimes. It has also become clear that there is a mismatch between the plan‐view morphology and internal facies composition in some deltas. Combined outcrop and subsurface data from the Eocene Battfjellet Formation, Spitsbergen, provide an example of ancient shelf deltas that formed under mixed influence. Internally, these shelf deltas are characterized by wave‐dominated facies that are normally associated with strike‐extensive, nearly linear shoreline sandstones. However, the formation comprises partially overlapping sandstone bodies of limited lateral extent (<20 km in any direction). This stacking pattern is attributed to frequent autogenic lobe switching that caused localized and rapid transgressions. Such processes typify fluvial‐dominated deltas and occur less commonly in wave‐dominated ones. Thus, there is an apparent mismatch between inferred plan‐view morphology and internal facies composition. It is argued that the Battfjellet deltas were flood‐dominated and prograded mainly during periods of high fluvial discharge. However, reworking of the fluvial‐flood facies by fair‐weather and storm waves, as well as longshore currents, resulted in a wave‐dominated facies character. Delta lobes undergoing auto‐retreat were particularly prone to reworking by basinal processes, including tidal currents. It is suggested that repeated delta progradation from inner shelf settings towards the outer shelf and shelf edge was aided by high sediment supply rather than relative falls in sea‐level as previously suggested. This interpretation is supported by: (i) the lack of major facies dislocations and extensive sub‐aerial unconformities; and (ii) an overall relative rise in sea‐level as evidenced by an overall low‐angle (0·8 to 1·2°) ascending shoreline trajectory. The latter results from the combined effect of basin subsidence, eustatic highstand and sediment compaction.     

Determination of carrying capacity for Sheep‐breeding in Southern Greenland by means of Satellite mapping

Arctic and sub‐arctic areas can be regarded as very less favored in consideration to agricultural production. In the southern Greenland sheep‐breeding is crucial for the self‐reliance economy. The article deals with a mapping project that was carried out in order to assess the carrying capacity. The natural conditions are briefly described as background for the mapping which by means of NDVI and Principal Component Analysis of Landsat MSS data has proven very powerful. The aspects of growing season, climate and landscape variation are discussed.

The investigation was carried out at Institute for Geography, Socio‐Economic Analysis and Computer Science, Roskilde University Centre, Denmark.     

Layer-Based Modelling of the Earth’s Gravitational Potential up to 10-km Scale in Spherical Harmonics in Spherical and Ellipsoidal Approximation

Global forward modelling of the Earth’s gravitational potential, a classical problem in geophysics and geodesy, is relevant for a range of applications such as gravity interpretation, isostatic hypothesis testing or combined gravity field modelling with high and ultra-high resolution. This study presents spectral forward modelling with volumetric mass layers to degree 2190 for the first time based on two different levels of approximation. In spherical approximation, the mass layers are referred to a sphere, yielding the spherical topographic potential. In ellipsoidal approximation where an ellipsoid of revolution provides the reference, the ellipsoidal topographic potential (ETP) is obtained. For both types of approximation, we derive a mass layer concept and study it with layered data from the Earth2014 topography model at 5-arc-min resolution. We show that the layer concept can be applied with either actual layer density or density contrasts w.r.t. a reference density, without discernible differences in the computed gravity functionals. To avoid aliasing and truncation errors, we carefully account for increased sampling requirements due to the exponentiation of the boundary functions and consider all numerically relevant terms of the involved binominal series expansions. The main outcome of our work is a set of new spectral models of the Earth’s topographic potential relying on mass layer modelling in spherical and in ellipsoidal approximation. We compare both levels of approximations geometrically, spectrally and numerically and quantify the benefits over the frequently used rock-equivalent topography (RET) method. We show that by using the ETP it is possible to avoid any displacement of masses and quantify also the benefit of mapping-free modelling. The layer-based forward modelling is corroborated by GOCE satellite gradiometry, by in-situ gravity observations from recently released Antarctic gravity anomaly grids and degree correlations with spectral models of the Earth’s observed geopotential. As the main conclusion of this work, the mass layer approach allows more accurate modelling of the topographic potential because it avoids 10–20-mGal approximation errors associated with RET techniques. The spherical approximation is suited for a range of geophysical applications, while the ellipsoidal approximation is preferable for applications requiring high accuracy or high resolution.     

Late Weichselian to early Holocene litho- and biostratigraphy in the Devil's Hole area,central North Sea,and its relation to glacial isostasy

The 6-m-long British Geological Survey vibrocore 56+01/170 from the Devil's Hole area, central North Sea, comprises glaciomarine and marine sediments of Late Weichselian and Holocene age. Besides the foraminiferal, pollen and AMS ¹⁴C data presented in this study, amino acid and ostracod data exist for the core. The accumulation of the sediment in the core began ca. 15.7 ¹⁴C ka BP on an erosional surface on overconsolidated Saalian sediment. When the lower part of the core (facies 1) accumulated the core area is interpreted to have been around 40 m lower than present. This interpretation is based on two assumptions; first, that the sediment is now ca. 20 m above the global sea level at the time of deposition, and second, that the marine microfaunal content reflects a water depth of about 20 m at that time. Crustal downflexure caused by Late Weichselian glacial loading of the core area is considered as the most plausible explanation of this difference. Glacial overriding would also explain the overconsolidation of the underlying Saalian sediment, the erosional surface on the Saalian sediment and the absence of Weichselian sediment older than ca. 15.7 ka BP at the core site. Indications of a regressional trend, with a minimum age of 12.1 ka BP, support the suggestion that the Devil's Hole area was glaciated during the Weichselian, as the fall in sea-level at that time probably reflects local isostatic rebound.     

Depositional architecture and evolution of progradationally stacked lobe complexes in the Eocene Central Basin of Spitsbergen

The down‐dip portion of submarine fans comprises terminal lobes that consist of various gravity flow deposits, including turbidites and debrites. Within lobe complexes, lobe deposition commonly takes place in topographic lows created between previous lobes, resulting in an architecture characterized by compensational stacking. However, in some deep water turbidite systems, compensational stacking is less prominent and progradation dominates over aggradation and lateral stacking. Combined outcrop and subsurface data from the Eocene Central Basin of Spitsbergen provide a rare example of submarine fans that comprise progradationally stacked lobes and lobe complexes. Evidence for progradation includes basinward offset stacking of successive lobe complexes, a vertical change from distal to proximal lobe environments as recorded by an upward increase in bed amalgamation, and coarsening and thickening upward trends within the lobes. Slope clinoforms occur immediately above the lobe complexes, suggesting that a shelf‐slope system prograded across the basin in concert with deposition of the lobe complexes. Erosive channels are present in proximal axial lobe settings, whereas shallow channels, scours and terminal lobes dominate further basinward. Terminal lobes are classified as amalgamated, non‐amalgamated or thin‐bedded, consistent with turbidite deposition in lobe axis, off‐axis and fringe settings, respectively. Co‐genetic turbidite–debrite beds, interpreted as being deposited from hybrid sediment gravity flows which consisted of both turbulent and laminar flow phases, occur frequently in lobe off‐axis to fringe settings, and are rare and poorly developed in channels and axial lobe environments. This indicates bypass of the laminar flow phase in proximal settings, and deposition in relative distal unconfined settings. Palaeocurrent data indicate sediment dispersal mainly towards the east, and is consistent with slope and lobe complex progradation perpendicular to the NNW–SSE trending basin margin.     

Urban land-use in the Core Area of Medium-sized Danish towns

Engelstoft. Sten: Urban land-use in the Core-Area of Medium-sized Danish towns. Geografisk Tidsskrift 84: 47–50. Copenhagen. January 1984.

The paper attempts to discuss the dual relationship between urban land-use changes and the social processes: examples from two medium-sized Danish towns are demonstrated.