Will the Clean Development Mechanism be effectively implemented in China?

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyse whether the presence of surplus emission allowance trading jeopardizes the environmental target of an international environmental agreement. We argue that surplus emission allowance trading can be used as an implicit side-payment mechanism to actually bring about higher environmental protection compared with the situation without the trade option. We point to the existence of a fundamental trade-off between costs of compliance and the creation of dynamic incentives to develop cheaper reduction technologies. Implicit side payments, in terms of surplus emission allocations, may be needed in order to establish a compromise between these opposing demands. We identify the shortcomings and benefits of allowing fully flexible permit trading, including the allocation rule of grandfathering.     

Ozone Production Efficiency in Savanna and Forested Areas during the EXPRESSO Experiment

NO, NO_x, NO_y and O₃ have been measuredduring the airborne EXPRESSO experiment, November 96,which took place near Bangui (Central Africa) at thebeginning of the dry season. This period correspondsto an intense burning activity. Chemical andphotochemical characteristics of the planetaryboundary layer, which corresponds most of the time tothe monsoon layer, and the Harmattan layer, which issituated above the latter, have been studied forsavanna as well as rain forest areas. These two layersare very different when considering the chemicalcomposition (especially for ozone and NO_z) andthe photochemical age.The relationship of photochemical ozone productionversus photochemical NO_x oxidation products hasbeen investigated. Results indicate an ozoneproduction efficiency (OPE) ranging from 6.3 to 14.8in the planetary boundary layer. Thus, this layer ischaracteristic of a photochemically young and activeair mass. In this layer, the ozone potentialproduction increases with the air mass photochemicalage. On the other hand, the Harmattan layer shows anOPE ranging from 4.6 to 7.4. These values arecharacteristic of photochemically well-aged airmasses. In this layer, the ozone potential productionseems to be exhausted with values around 4.0 (i.e., 4ozone molecules produced for each NO_x moleculeemitted).     

Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon

Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients.     

Inversion, error analysis, and validation of GPS/MET occultation data

The global positioning system meteorology (GPS/MET) experiment was the first practical demonstration of global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based active limb sounding employing the radio occultation technique. This method measures, as principal observable and with millimetric accuracy, the excess phase path (relative to propagation in vacuum) of GNSS-transmitted radio waves caused by refraction during passage through the Earth’s neutral atmosphere and ionosphere in limb geometry. It shows great potential utility for weather and climate system studies in providing an unique combination of global coverage, high vertical resolution and accuracy, long-term stability, and all-weather capability. We first describe our GPS/MET data processing scheme from excess phases via bending angles to the neutral atmospheric parameters refractivity, density, pressure and temperature. Special emphasis is given to ionospheric correction methodology and the inversion of bending angles to refractivities, where we introduce a matrix inversion technique (instead of the usual integral inversion). The matrix technique is shown to lead to identical results as integral inversion but is more directly extendable to inversion by optimal estimation. The quality of GPS/MET-derived profiles is analyzed with an error estimation analysis employing a Monte Carlo technique. We consider statistical errors together with systematic errors due to upper-boundary initialization of the retrieval by a priori bending angles. Perfect initialization and properly smoothed statistical errors allow for better than 1 K temperature retrieval accuracy up to the stratopause. No initialization and statistical errors yield better than 1 K accuracy up to 30 km but less than 3 K accuracy above 40 km. Given imperfect initialization, biases ≫ 2 K propagate down to below 30 km height in unfavorable realistic cases. Furthermore, results of a statistical validation of GPS/MET profiles through comparison with atmospheric analyses of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are presented. The comparisons indicate the high utility of the occultation data in that very good agreement of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere temperature (better than 1.5 K rms, ≪ 0.5 K bias) is found for a region (Europe+USA) where the ECMWF analyses are known to be good, but poorer agreement for a region (Southern Pacific) where the analyses are known to be degraded.     

Recent Results from Studies of Electric Discharges in the Mesosphere

The paper reviews recent advances in studies of electric discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above thunderstorms, and their effects on the atmosphere. The primary focus is on the sprite discharge occurring in the mesosphere, which is the most commonly observed high altitude discharge by imaging cameras from the ground, but effects on the upper atmosphere by electromagnetic radiation from lightning are also considered. During the past few years, co-ordinated observations over Southern Europe have been made of a wide range of parameters related to sprites and their causative thunderstorms. Observations have been complemented by the modelling of processes ranging from the electric discharge to perturbations of trace gas concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Observations point to significant energy deposition by sprites in the neutral atmosphere as observed by infrasound waves detected at up to 1000 km distance, whereas elves and lightning have been shown significantly to affect ionization and heating of the lower ionosphere/mesosphere. Studies of the thunderstorm systems powering high altitude discharges show the important role of intracloud (IC) lightning in sprite generation as seen by the first simultaneous observations of IC activity, sprite activity and broadband, electromagnetic radiation in the VLF range. Simulations of sprite ignition suggest that, under certain conditions, energetic electrons in the runaway regime are generated in streamer discharges. Such electrons may be the source of X- and Gamma-rays observed in lightning, thunderstorms and the so-called Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) observed from space over thunderstorm regions. Model estimates of sprite perturbations to the global atmospheric electric circuit, trace gas concentrations and atmospheric dynamics suggest significant local perturbations, and possibly significant meso-scale effects, but negligible global effects.     

The formation of asymmetric Stokes V profiles in the presence of a magnetopause

A magnetopause that separates two regimes of different flow, additional to the separation of a magnetic field from a field-free plasma, gives rise to the formation of asymmetric Stokes profiles. Using a simple two-layer model atmosphere, where one layer comprises a magnetic field, the other being field-free, it is shown by analytical derivation that a wide variety of Stokes V profiles can be produced, having amplitude asymmetries a in the range –a. These include two-humped V profiles, which have two lobes of equal sign. For the most simple models, the asymmetry depends on the ratio of continuum intensity to the Planck radiation intensity of the magnetic layer at the wavelength of the spectral line under consideration, and on the line depth. Two-humped profiles (|a|>1) require the temperature of the magnetic layer to surpass the temperature of the line-core forming region, implying a temperature inversion, so that the V profile is partially in emission. The confrontation of this formation scenario with properties of observed one-lobe profiles of quiet-Sun network regions is inconclusive due to insufficient spatial resolution and lack of a sufficient sample of simultaneously recorded Stokes spectral lines of varying line depths. It seems, however, to be in good agreement with the observed frequent occurrence of abnormal V profiles of the very strong Nai D ₂ and D ₂ spectral line. A possible observational verification for the present formation scenario of abnormal Stokes V profiles and a novel method of Stokes inversion are discussed.     

Resource potential of one of Earth's final remaining frontiers: the Siberian Platform

The Siberian Platform, covering a vast area of East Siberia (Russian Federation), represents one of the largest underexplored regions in Asia. Previous expeditions and regional surveys in the twentieth century, however, suggest that the Siberian Platform and adjacent orogenic belts hold significant potential for large undiscovered gold, copper, diamond and industrial mineral deposits, along with extensive oil and gas fields. The remoteness of the region, its inhospitable winter climate, and a major lack of modern infrastructure and mining methods have long hampered exploration in this area. These factors, along with the additional investment required and political uncertainties involved with operating in Russia, have deterred many international mining companies from considering the Siberian Platform as a viable region for exploration and mining. However, as mining industry paradigms change into a green, battery metals‐driven commodity sector, and modern mining methods are developed, increasing efficiency at a lower cost, the significant undiscovered mineral potential of the Siberian Platform could elevate the region to the forefront of mineral exploration and mining in the future.     

Unravelling the complex geological evolution of one of Earth's final remaining frontiers: East Siberia

East Siberia represents one of the most remote and inhospitable regions on the planet, home to the coldest permanently inhabited settlement on Earth (Oymyakon), where temperatures frequently fall below ?50°C in winter. Geological investigations in this part of northern Asia are severely hampered by thick permafrost, a lack of infrastructure, vast tracts of barren uninhabited rough terrain, and political challenges. However, the rocks buried below the freezing tundra and taiga of this remote land provide evidence of an interesting and diverse geological history, including vast hypersaline salt basins, voluminous volcanic eruptions, Himalayan‐style mountain ranges, and extensive swamps. Following a comprehensive study of publically available literature, the majority published in Russian language and challenging to obtain in the UK, we aim to decipher the diverse and complicated geological history of this remote region over the past 1650 Myr.