Reconstructing palaeotemperatures for the Early and Middle Pleistocene using the mutual climatic range method based on plant fossils

A new approach is proposed to obtain quantitative temperature reconstructions from Early and Middle Pleistocene pollen and megafloral records. Utilizing the indicator species concept pioneered by Iversen (1944, Geologiska Föreningen Förhandlingar Stockholm 66, 463–483), the new methodology overcomes the problem of non-analogue plant communities by only taking into account the presence/absence of taxa rather than their relative abundances. Based on the present day thermal tolerances of the taxa from a fossil assemblage, the temperature interval in which all taxa from this assemblage can coexist is determined. A databank containing the climate tolerances of 85 taxa from European pollen records was established. To increase the temperature resolution of the method, procedures were developed to assess the most likely intervals for the actual temperatures within the calculated common thermospheres and the routine evaluation of the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months (MTW and MTC). After calibrating the approach on modern assemblages, it was applied to Tiglian and Holsteinian pollen sequences from Lieth (northern Germany) and Lac du Bourget (northern French Alps). For both records the method yields detailed temperature reconstructions of temperate and cold episodes. During the coldest episode of the Lieth section, the MTC may have been as low as −16°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 14.5 to 21°C, thus testifying to a strong continentality at that time. During the warmest period reconstructed for the Lieth section, the MTC was similar to the value as measured in the area today (1.5°C), whereas the MTW was probably higher than at present (20.1°C). For the coldest interval from the Lac du Bourget pollen sequence, the reconstructed MTC values reach a minimum of −15°C. Corresponding MTW values range from 15 to 22°C, again implying a strong continentality. For the warmest period our approach yields MTC values between −2 and 2°C and MTW values between 16.5 and 22°C. For both records, the resolution for the MTW and MTC reaches 1.5 and 2.5°C, respectively.     

On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Source mechanism of volcanic tremor: fluid-driven crack models and their application to the 1963 kilauea eruption

We propose a model for the mechanism of magma transport based on a fluid-filled tensile crack driven by the excess pressure of fluid. Such a transport mechanism can generate seismic waves by a succession of jerky crack extensions, if the fracture strength of rock varies in space, or if there is a difference between the dynamic and static values of the critical stress intensity factor. We also find that the opening and closing of a narrow channel connecting two fluid-filled cracks may be a source of seismic waves. Using the finite-difference method, we calculated the vibration of dry and fluid-filled cracks generated by: (1) a jerky extension at one end or at both ends and (2) a jerky opening of a narrow channel connecting two cracks. We then calculated the far-field and near-field radiation from these vibrating cracks. The spectra show peaked structures, but interestingly, most high-frequency peaks are only present in the near-field and cannot be transmitted to the far-field. The spectral features described above are often observed for volcanic tremors and in some cases for seismic signals associated with hydraulic fracturing experiments.We first consider as a model of volcanic tremor randomly occurring jerky crack extensions, and derive a formula relating the tremor amplitude to the excess pressure in the magma, the incremental area in each extension, and the frequency of extensions. These parameters are also constrained by other observations, such as the rate of magma flow.Our model was tested quantitatively against observations made in one of the best-described case histories of volcanic tremor: the October 5–6, 1963 Kilauea flank eruption. We found that a single, long crack extending from the summit to the eruptive site cannot explain the observations. The model of a steadily expanding crack ran into difficulties when quantitative comparisons were made with observations. The extension of crack area needed to explain the amplitude of volcanic tremor should accompany a large increase in tremor period which was not observed.Our second model is a chain of cracks connected by narrow channels which open and close. The length of each crack is around 1 km, the channel area connecting neighboring cracks is about 10³m², and the channel opens jerkily with the magmatic excess pressure of about 20 bars. The frequency of jerky opening of each channel is about once in 15 seconds. The channel is closed after each jerky opening, as soon as magma is moved through the channel.     

Exploring the climate problems of Brazil’s Nordeste: a review

This article reviews the exploration of the climate dynamics of Brazil’s Nordeste in the course of a century. The drought-prone and semi-arid northern Nordeste of Brazil experiences a short rainy season around March–April, when the interhemispheric gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic is weakest and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) reaches its southernmost position in the course of the annual cycle. The recurrent Secas (droughts) have a severe socio-economic impact. During drought years, the interhemispheric SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic is steep and the ITCZ stays far North, while the waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific tend to be anomalously warm. Based on the extensive diagnostic exploration of the circulation mechanisms of interannual climate variability, empirical methods have been developed for the forecasting of the Nordeste rainy season. These have been applied in the real-time prediction of seasonal rainfall anomalies throughout the last decade of the 20th century.     

Identification of mid-latitudinal regional and urban temperature variabilities based on regional reanalysis data

The objective of the study is to detect geographical and temporal variations of near surface air temperatures over Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. In addition, the study serves to assess the usefulness of NARR temperature data to analyze regional and local temperature variations. Particular emphasis was placed on the analyses on the temperature-modifying effects of the Great Lakes and large urban environments. We analyzed annual mean, daily maximum and minimum, and January minimum and July maximum temperatures for the period 1979–2006 by using methods such as ordinary kriging, principal component analysis, and the Mann–Kendall test. On a regional scale, we found significant effects of the latitude and the Great Lakes on the spatial variability of the data. Furthermore, we found clearly identifiable effects of large urban areas in the study region (Minneapolis—Saint Paul and Milwaukee), which are more evident in the principal component scores than in the temperature data themselves. While we failed to detect significant July maximum temperature trends, we detected significantly increasing trends in January minimum and mean annual temperature datasets in the eastern part of the region. Overall, the present study has demonstrated the potential of using NARR data for urban climate research.     

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.     

A multiphysics and multiscale software environment for modeling astrophysical systems

We present MUSE, a software framework for combining existing computational tools for different astrophysical domains into a single multiphysics, multiscale application. MUSE facilitates the coupling of existing codes written in different languages by providing inter-language tools and by specifying an interface between each module and the framework that represents a balance between generality and computational efficiency. This approach allows scientists to use combinations of codes to solve highly coupled problems without the need to write new codes for other domains or significantly alter their existing codes. MUSE currently incorporates the domains of stellar dynamics, stellar evolution and stellar hydrodynamics for studying generalized stellar systems. We have now reached a “Noah’s Ark” milestone, with (at least) two available numerical solvers for each domain. MUSE can treat multiscale and multiphysics systems in which the time- and size-scales are well separated, like simulating the evolution of planetary systems, small stellar associations, dense stellar clusters, galaxies and galactic nuclei. In this paper we describe three examples calculated using MUSE: the merger of two galaxies, the merger of two evolving stars, and a hybrid N-body simulation. In addition, we demonstrate an implementation of MUSE on a distributed computer which may also include special-purpose hardware, such as GRAPEs or GPUs, to accelerate computations. The current MUSE code base is publicly available as open source at http://muse.li.