The Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 2016

<正>1.Overview The 2016 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium(QOS-2016)was held on 4–9 September 2016 in Edinburgh,UK.The Symposium was organized by the International Ozone Commission(IO3C),the NERC Centre for EcologyHydrology and the University of Edinburgh,and was co-sponsored by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric     

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.     

BIFoR FACE: Water–soil–vegetation–atmosphere data from a temperate deciduous forest catchment,including under elevated CO2

The ecosystem services provided by forests modulate runoff generation processes, nutrient cycling and water and energy exchange between soils, vegetation and atmosphere. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ affects many linked aspects of forest and catchment function in ways we do not adequately understand. Global levels of atmospheric CO₂ will be around 40% higher in 2050 than current levels, yet estimates of how water and solute fluxes in forested catchments will respond to increased CO₂ are highly uncertain. The Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) facility of the University of Birmingham's Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) is the only FACE in mature deciduous forest. The site specializes in fundamental studies of the response of whole ecosystem patches of mature, deciduous, temperate woodland to elevated CO₂ (eCO₂). Here, we describe a dataset of hydrological parameters – seven weather parameters at each of three heights and four locations, shallow soil moisture and temperature, stream hydrology and CO₂ enrichment – retrieved at high frequency from the BIFoR FACE catchment.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1990s长江流域降水趋势分析

依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.     

An effective approach to determine the dynamic source parameters

In this study, we present a new and effective method to determine the dynamic source parameters (i.e., stress drop and strength distribution). We first assume that the kinematic source parameters, i.e., the slip and rupture time distributions on the fault plane, are known from the previous source inversion studies. Then, using the seismic source representation theorem we determine the dynamic stress field on a fault plane from known kinematic parameters. Finally, we determine the strength of the fault defined as the peak stress just before the rupture. We have tested the validity of this method by using an illustrative two-dimensional analytical example. To assess the applicability of this method, we have applied it to study the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake, and obtained consistent results with those ofMiyatake's (1992) andQuin's (1990). Compared with previous methods, this new method is simple, straightforward and accurate, and needs much less calculation. Therefore, it is expected to be useful in exploring the seismic source process.     

Interrelation between fault zone structures and earthquake processes

In order to develop capabilities for predicting earthquake processes on the basis of known fault zone structures and stress conditions, we need to find relations between seismogenic structures and processes. In the present paper we search for the scale dependence in various earthquake phenomena with the hope to find some structures in the earth that may control the earthquake processes. Among these phenomena, we shall focus on (1) geologic structures which play some role in nucleation and stopping of earthquake fault rupture, (2) depth ranges of the brittle seismogenic zone, (3) asperities and barriers distributed over a fault plane, (4) source-controlledf _max effect, (5) nonfractal behavior of creep events, and (6) temporal correlation between codaQ ^–1 and seismicity of earthquakes with magnitude characteristic to a given area. Our review of various scale-dependent phenomena leads us to propose a working hypothesis that the temporal change in codaQ ^–1 may reflect the activity of creep fractures near the brittle-ductile transition zone.