Large Scale Rockfall Reach Susceptibility Maps in La Cabrera Sierra (Madrid) performed with GIS and Dynamic Analysis at 1:5,000

For the testing of the effect on the tsunami prevention facilities, a simplified methodfor tsunami risk assessment was suggested without wave run-up analysis. This methodis proposed using calculated offshore tsunami waveform and field reconnaissance suchas the seawall height, time necessary for residents' evacuation and tsunami warninginsurance. Then, two normalized values are evaluated; one is the ratio of calculatedmaximum tsunami height to seawall height, the other is the ratio of time betweentsunami over-topping and evacuation completion to total time required for evacuation.These two values are used to qualitatively estimate the safety of residents and the effectof tsunami prevention facilities, eliminating the necessity to compute complicatedtsunami run-up onshore.     

Late Permian–Middle Jurassic lithospheric thinning in Peru and Bolivia, and its bearing on Andean-age tectonics

Integrated studies and revisions of sedimentary basins and associated magmatism in Peru and Bolivia (8–22°S) show that this part of western Gondwana underwent rifting during the Late Permian–Middle Jurassic interval. Rifting started in central Peru in the Late Permian and propagated southwards into Bolivia until the Liassic/Dogger, along an axis that coincides with the present Eastern Cordillera. Southwest of this region, lithospheric thinning developed in the Early Jurassic and culminated in the Middle Jurassic, producing considerable subsidence in the Arequipa basin of southern Peru. This 110-Ma-long interval of lithospheric thinning ended 160 Ma with the onset of Malm–earliest Cretaceous partial rift inversion in the Eastern Cordillera area.The lithospheric heterogeneities inherited from these processes are likely to have largely influenced the distribution and features of younger compressional and/or transpressional deformations. In particular, the Altiplano plateau corresponds to a paleotectonic domain of “normal” lithospheric thickness that was bounded by two elongated areas underlain by thinned lithosphere. The high Eastern Cordillera of Peru and Bolivia results from Late Oligocene–Neogene intense inversion of the easternmost thinned area.     

The influence of ENSO and PDO on tropical Andean glaciers and their impact on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.     

Size fractionation and optical properties of colloids in an organic-rich estuary (Thurso, UK)

The optical characteristics of a black water river estuary from the north coast of Scotland were examined in the filtered (0.4 µm), ultrafiltered (5 kDa) and colloid-enriched fractions of estuarine samples. The samples were collected over the full salinity range during a period when the pH was relatively constant (8.2–8.5) throughout the estuary, allowing the influence of salinity on estuarine colloidal processes to be distinguished. The properties examined in the bulk, the low molecular weight (LMW) and the colloidal fraction (HMW) were UV–visible absorption, 3-D fluorescence excitation–emission matrix (EEM) spectrum, inorganic and organic carbon, mean size (by dynamic light scattering), and size distribution by flow field-flow fractionation analysis (FlFFF). The combined results of these analyses support the view that river-borne, humic-rich colloids underwent two types of transformation upon mixing with the seawater end member. The first one resulted in an apparent increase in the abundance of LMW constituents and may be explained by coiling of the individual humic macromolecules. The second one resulted in an increase in the mean size measured in both the lower and higher colloidal size ranges, and may be explained by aggregation of colloids to form entities that were still mostly colloidal i.e., smaller than 0.4 µm. The LMW contribution to the bulk optical properties increased with increasing salinity. Very similar findings were obtained from simulated mixing experiments using a Nordic Reference NOM extract as a source of freshwater colloids. This indicates that changes in the molecular architecture and molar mass of river-borne colloids—not changes in their chemical nature—were responsible for the observed variations in the spectral characteristics of CDOM in this estuary.     

An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.     

Imposex levels and concentrations of organotin compounds (TBT and its metabolites) in Nassarius nitidus from the Lagoon of Venice

Specimens of Nassarius nitidus were collected in seven stations of the Venice Lagoon to assess the levels of tributyltin (TBT) and its metabolites monobutyltin and dibutyltin in the tissues and monitor their effect on organisms, in particular the phenomenon of imposex (superimposition of male sexual characteristics on females). The following values of population indices were found: vas deferens sequence: 1.2 ± 0.7–4.0 ± 0.5; relative penis length: 6–47%. The least impacted station was situated in the northern part of the Lagoon, where females without imposex were found and Butyltin (BuTs) concentrations in the organisms (average sum of BuTs = 43 ± 14 ng Sn g⁻¹ w.) were significantly lower than in the other stations (range of average sum of BuTs: 101 ± 22–217 ± 27 ng Sn g⁻¹ d.w.). Population indices were found to be related to the TBT content in the tissues. In particular VDSI had a significant logarithmic correlation: r = 0.95, n = 8, p < 0.05.     

Tidal flat macrofaunal communities and their associated environments in estuaries of southern California and northern Baja California, Mexico

Several tidal flats in both Estero de Punta Banda and Bahia de San Quintín, Baja California, and one in Mission Bay, southern California, were sampled for macrofaunal properties (taxonomic composition, density, species richness, and functional groups for animals ≥0.3 mm) and associated environmental variables (sediment properties, salinity, plant belowground biomass, and cover ofZostera marina) in order to establish a benchmark data set for these areas. The grouping of macrofauna into higher taxonomic or functional groups for these comparisons reduced variability and revealed stronger relationships. Each estuary had a fairly distinct macrofaunal assemblage, with that of Estero de Punta Banda being different from Bahia de San Quintín and Mission Bay primarily due to dominance by a capitellid polychaete, lower proportions of surface deposit feeders, and higher proportions of fauna with a planktonic stage. The flats in Mission Bay and Bahia de San Quintín were dominated by peracarid crustaceans, oligochaetes and polychaetes and had higher proportions of direct developers and macrofauna with mobile adult stages than did Estero de Punta Banda. There was an overlap of the environmental characteristics among estuaries, with more variability of sediment and vegetation properties within than among estuaries. Within Bahia de San Quintín, there was an oceanic to back-bay distribution gradient of macrofauna that was similar to that found in estuaries in wetter climates, despite the lack of a salinity gradient in San Quintín. A decoupling of the benthos and the assumed anthropogenic stresses was observed with the degraded site, Mission Bay, being most similar to the relatively pristine Bahia de San Quintín. Selection of reference sites and sampling variables should be made cautiously because effects of disturbance factors on the benthos may be site-dependent, scale-dependent, or negligible.     

Assessment of river flow with significant lateral inflow through reverse routing modeling

The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NS_q) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NS_q for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events.     

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.