1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。     

Dauphiné twinning and texture memory in polycrystalline quartz. Part 3: texture memory during phase transformation

Samples of quartz-bearing rocks were heated above the α (trigonal)–β (hexagonal) phase transformation of quartz (625–950°C) to explore changes in preferred orientation patterns. Textures were measured both in situ and ex situ with neutron, synchrotron X-ray and electron backscatter diffraction. The trigonal–hexagonal phase transformation does not change the orientation of c- and a-axes, but positive and negative rhombs become equal in the hexagonal β-phase. In naturally deformed quartzites measured by neutron diffraction a perfect texture memory was observed, i.e. crystals returned to the same trigonal orientation they started from, with no evidence of twin boundaries. Samples measured by electron back-scattered diffraction on surfaces show considerable twinning and memory loss after the phase transformation. In experimentally deformed quartz rocks, where twinning was induced mechanically before heating, the orientation memory is lost. A mechanical model can explain the memory loss but so far it does not account for the persistence of the memory in quartzites. Stresses imposed by neighboring grains remain a likely cause of texture memory in this mineral with a very high elastic anisotropy. If stresses are imposed experimentally the internal stresses are released during the phase transformation and the material returns to its original state prior to deformation. Similarly, on surfaces there are no tractions and thus texture memory is partially lost.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Turbulence Closures In Neutral Boundary Layer Over Complex Terrain

In this work, three turbulence closure models, Mellor andYamada level 2.5, E - l and E - implemented in a circulation model, are compared in neutral condition over complex terrain. They are firstly applied to a one-dimensional case on flat terrain and then to a schematic two-dimensional valley. The simulation results, in terms of wind field and turbulent kinetic energy, are tested against measurements from a wind-tunnel experiment. The empirical constants defining the characteristic length scales of the closures are modified based on turbulence parameters estimated in the experiment. The formulation of the diffusion coefficients is analysed to explain the differences among the various closures in the simulation results. Regarding the mean flow, both on flat and complex terrain, all the closures yield satisfactory results. Concerning the turbulent kinetic energy, the best results are obtained by E - l and E - closures.     

Exploring seven hundred years of transhumance,climate dynamic,fire and human activity through a historical mountain pass in central Spain

A high-altitude peat sequence from the heart of the Spanish Central System (Gredos range) was analysed through a multi-proxy approach to determine the sensitivity of high-mountain habitats to climate, fire and land use changes during the last seven hundred years, providing valuable insight into our understanding of the vegetation history and environmental changes in a mountain pass close to a traditional route of transhumance. The pollen data indicate that the vegetation was dominated by shrublands and grasslands with scattered pines in high-mountain areas, while in the valleys cereals, chestnut and olive trees were cultivated. Strong declines of high-mountain pines percentages are recorded at 1540, 1675, 1765, 1835 and 1925 cal AD, which may be related to increasing grazing activities and/or the occurrence of anthropogenic fires. The practice of mountain summer farming and transhumance deeply changed and redesigned the landscape of the high altitudes in central Spain (Gredos range) since the Middle Ages, although its dynamics was influenced in some way by climate variability of the past seven centuries.     

Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference

Natural Hazards - The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano constitutes the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico producing more than 2000 fatalities, thousands of displaced people and severe...     

Late Pleistocene baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) forest deposit on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico

Approximately 13 km south of Gulf Shores, Alabama (United States), divers found in situ baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) stumps 18 m below the ocean surface. These trees could have only lived when sea level fell during the Pleistocene subaerially exposing the tectonically stable continental shelf. Here we investigate the geophysical properties along with microfossil and stratigraphical analyses of sediment cores to understand the factors that lead to this wood’s preservation. The stumps are exposed in an elongated depression (~100 m long, ~1 m deep) nested in a trough of the northwest–southeast trending Holocene sand ridges and troughs with 2–5 m vertical relief and ~0.5 km wavelength. Radiocarbon ages of the wood were infinite thus optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was used to constrain the site’s age. Below the Holocene sands (~0.1–4 m thick), separated by a regional erosional unconformity, are Late Pleistocene mud-peat (72±8 ka OSL), mud-sand (63±5, 73±6 ka OSL), and palaeosol (56±5 ka OSL) facies that grade laterally from west to east, respectively. Foraminiferal analysis reveals the location of the terrestrial-marine transitional layer above the Pleistocene facies in an interbedded sand and mud facies (3940±30 (1σ) ¹⁴C a BP), which is part of a lower shoreface or marine-dominated estuarine environment. The occurrence of palaeosol and swamp facies of broadly similar ages and elevation suggests the glacial landscape possessed topographic relief that allowed wood, mud and peats to be preserved for ~50 ka of subaerial exposure before transitioning to the modern marine environment. We hypothesize that rapid sea-level rise occurring ~60 or ~40 ka ago provided opportunities for local flood-plain aggradation to bury the swamp thus preserving the stumps and that other sites may exist in the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf.     

Use of immunofluorescence technique in cultured fibroblasts from Mediterranean cetaceans as new "in vitro" tool to investigate effects of environmental contaminants

The aim of the present study was to propose the immunofluorescence technique in cultured fibroblasts from Mediterranean cetaceans as a new "in vitro" tool to explore the susceptibility of these marine mammals to different xenobiotic compounds. The cell lines were cultured from integument biopsies of free-ranging and stranded cetaceans (dead within 12h). Using the indirect immunofluorescence assay, we detected endogenous proteins induced by different contaminants. Here we present the method used for qualitative and quantitative evaluation of cytochromes P450 (CYP1A1 and CYP2B) induced by some POPs (DDTs and PCBs) and emerging contaminants (PBDEs) in fibroblast cell cultures of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) and bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Immunofluorescence was quantified with a specially designed Olympus macro, DetectIntZ. A major result was the possibility of using this "in vitro" assay to quantify induction of endogenous proteins.