Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium

The possibility of using global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change or the global mean ocean heat-flux as predictors to statistically estimate the change of global mean sea-level is explored in the context of a long climate simulation of the past millennium with the climate model ECHO-G. Such relationships have recently been proposed to by-pass the difficulty of estimating future sea-level changes based on simulations with coarse-resolution climate models. It is found that, in this simulation, a simple linear relationship between mean temperature and the rate of change of sea level does not exist. A regression parameter linking both variables, and estimated in sliding 120-year windows, varies widely along the simulation and, in some periods, even attains negative values. The ocean heat-flux and the rate-of-change of mean temperature seem to better capture the rate-of-change of sea level due to thermal expansion.     

A Dynamic Model to Simulate Arsenic,Lead, and Mercury Contamination in the Terrestrial Environment During Extreme Floods of Rivers

Beside damages of infrastructure in industrial regions, extreme floods can cause contamination with particle‐bound pollutants, e. g., due to erosion of soils and sediments. In order to predict contamination with inorganic pollutants, the transport and fate of arsenic, lead, and mercury during a fictive flood event of River Vereinigte Mulde in the region of Bitterfeld (Germany) with 200 years recurrence time was modeled. The finite element model system Telemac2D, which is subdivided into a hydrodynamic (Telemac‐2D), a transport (Subief‐2D), and a water quality module (wq2subief) was applied. The transport and water quality model models were calibrated using results of sediment trap exposures in the floodplain of River Vereinigte Mulde. Model results exhibited that the spatial patterns of particle‐associated arsenic and lead concentrations significantly changed. Extended, mostly agriculturally used areas showed arsenic and lead concentrations between 150 and 200 mg kg^–1 and 250 and 300 mg kg^–1, respectively, while urban areas were to a great extent spared from high contamination with arsenic and lead. Concentrations of particle‐associated mercury showed a pattern distinct from those of arsenic and lead. Outside of small patches with concentrations up to 63 mg kg^–1, concentrations of particle‐associated mercury remained close to zero. Differences in the spatial patterns of the three pollutants regarded mainly arise from significantly different initial and boundary conditions. Sensitivity analyses of initial and boundary conditions revealed a high sensitivity of particle‐bound pollutant concentrations, whereas the sensitivities of concentrations of suspended sediments and soluble pollutants were mediocre to negligible.     

A Dynamic Model to Simulate Spills of Fuel and Diesel Oil in the Terrestrial Environment during Extreme Fluvial Floods

Extreme fluvial floods may cause severe contamination with fuel oil and diesel, originating from gasoline pipes and tanks in private households and industrial areas, respectively. Geo‐referenced oil spills in the region of Bitterfeld (Germany) after extreme flood events, such as in August 2002, were simulated using the two‐dimensional (2D) Finite Element model system Telemac2D, which is subdivided into a hydrodynamic (Telemac‐2D) and a transport module (Subief2D). Fuel oil settled via adhesion showed a thickness of less than 1.0 mm. Fuel oil concentrations on the flood wave amounted up to 80 g m^–3 in the vicinity of the point sources. At a distance of several hundred meters downstream of the point sources, the fuel oil concentrations were calculated to be zero. Settled areas were only partially contaminated with fuel oil. While one village experienced severe oil contamination, the town of Bitterfeld was almost unaffected by oil spills. It was demonstrated that the 2D transport model applied is capable of simulating fuel oil spills during extreme high waters in the terrestrial environment. Such simulations of fuel oil spills will feed into a GIS‐based decision support system of flood protection.     

The impacts of a Laki-like eruption on the present Swedish society

In this study, we analyse and discuss the possible impacts on the Swedish society of a volcanic eruption on Iceland, emitting ash particles and large quantities of sulphur dioxide. A scenario was developed, based on the historical Laki eruption of 1783–1784, to describe the content of a potential sulphur fog over time in Sweden. Due to its high complexity and the many uncertainties in the underpinning scientific data, the scenario was developed using a cross-disciplinary approach incorporating experts from different scientific fields. An analysis of the impacts of the hazard on human health, environment and technical equipment was then performed and, finally, representatives from national authorities assessed the overall societal challenges in responding to the consequences of a massive volcanic eruption. The analysis shows that it is the peak concentrations of sulphur dioxide and sulphuric acid rather than the longer periods of moderate concentrations that contribute most to the negative consequences for human health and environment. Altogether, three societal challenges were identified: the ability to compile and disseminate relevant information fast enough, to perform continuous measurements of concentrations of different substances in affected areas and to meet the large demand for medical care.     

Global 3‐D solar‐type star‐disc dynamo systems: I. MHD modeling

We have carried out global three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the star‐disc interaction region around a young solar‐type star. The magnetic field is generated and maintained by dynamos in the star as well as in the disc. The developing mass flows possess non‐periodic time‐variable azimuthal structure and are controlled by the nonaxisymmetric magnetic fields. Since the stellar field drives a strong stellar wind, accretion is anti‐correlated with the stellar field strength and disc matter is spiraling onto the star at low latitudes, both contrary to the generally assumed accretion picture. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Petrogenetic and metallogenetic responses to Miocene slab flattening: new constraints from the El Indio-Pascua Au–Ag–Cu belt,Chile/Argentina

The Eocene–Miocene volcanic and hypabyssal rocks of the El Indio-Pascua Au–Ag–-Cu belt in the southern central Andean flat-slab region are medium–high-K calc-alkaline arc suites, ranging in composition from andesite to rhyolite. A significant transition in magmatic trace element chemistry, coinciding with a pronounced reduction in magma output, occurred in the late-Middle Miocene as documented by ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar geochronology. The upper Eocene–lower-Middle Miocene rocks exhibit low Sr/Y ratios (<50), minor heavy REE fractionation with Sm/Yb ratios not exceeding 3.5 and, in some cases, minor negative Eu anomalies. In contrast, the largely dacitic rocks erupted after ca. 13 Ma are depleted in Y (10 ppm), have generally high, but variable Sr/Y ratios (30–200), exhibit moderate middle and heavy REE fractionation (Sm/Yb: 3.7–5.9) and lack negative Eu anomalies. The latter features are characteristic of adakitic suites (i.e. slab-melts), but the regional temporal and spatial distribution of arc magmatism precludes a major magma source in the downgoing slab. This evolution is interpreted as reflecting a progressive increase in pressure and the availability of water in the lower-crustal site of magma generation, establishing both garnet and hornblende as major stable phases in the residuum. The pressure in the lower crust increased in response to episodic crustal thickening related to the shallowing of the slab, a process recorded by the incision of three regional pediplains over the period 17–6 Ma. Elimination of the subarc asthenospheric mantle and much of the lithospheric mantle by ca. 10 Ma permitted direct incursion of slab-derived, highly oxidised metal- and volatile-rich supercritical fluids into the lower crust, stimulating melting of mafic, garnet amphibolitic and eclogitic assemblages.The igneous suites emplaced from 36–11 Ma were associated with widespread, and locally intense, epizonal hydrothermal activity, but this was barren of base and precious metals. The shallow-crustal availability of abundant water highlighted in earlier models was therefore not a metallogenetic determinant. Moreover, economic Au–Ag–Cu mineralization, associated with small volumes of dacitic magma, was restricted to the interval 9.5–5 Ma, and was not initiated until at least 3.5 my after the inception of high-pressure magma generation. In contrast to previous metallogenetic studies, we therefore suggest that this petrochemical transition was not inherently favourable for ore formation. We propose that the incursion of highly oxidized supercritical fluids from the slab into the lower crust was ultimately responsible for the brief Late Miocene metallogenetic episode.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at Editorial handling: V. Bouchot