Role of the Tibetan plateau glaciers in the Asian summer monsoon

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO₂). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

     

高速公路团雾分级预警研究

团雾和高速公路团雾的定义内涵外延尚未统一,没有标准定义。为有效预防高速公路团雾天气灾害,减少因高速公路团雾所造成的交通事故,有必要规范高速公路团雾分级预警标准。基于高速公路团雾的水平能见度和水平尺度等监测数据,借鉴部分学者专家的意见和建议,确定团雾和高速公路团雾的定义。分析高速公路团雾的特征、成因、时空分布及团雾的危害,统计分析高速公路团雾多发路段的交通事故数据资料与AWMS气象监测数据资料,确立高速公路团雾与车辆交通安全性关系。依据同车道前后车辆的相对停车视距和安全停车距离等分析,评估车辆在不同水平能见度数值条件下,行驶在团雾区域内外车辆发生交通事故的危险性大小,遵照相关法律、条例、标准及其规范,按水平能见度数值范围和覆盖路面长度划分高速公路团雾预警等级。研究结果表明:(1)高速公路团雾的水平尺度一般小于5 km,水平能见度通常小于200 m。(2)高速公路团雾具有多发性,时空分布不均,多发生于当日22时次日08时。(3)高速公路团雾的事故率高,造成的交通事故比较严重。(4)可以根据团雾特征和潜在危害性确定团雾和高速公路团雾定义的内涵外延,给出术语定义。(5)可根据高速公路团雾的水平能见度、交通事故、停车视距等分析,划分预警级别,规范监测和预报预警服务,减少交通事故的发生。     

Magnetic properties of Jiaxian red clay sequences from northern Chinese Loess Plateau and its paleoclimatic significance

Rock magnetism research on eolian deposits from the Chinese Loess Plateau shows that magnetite, maghe- mite and hematite are the main magnetic minerals in loess-paleosol sequences and red clay se-quences[1―8], and finds that the magnetic susceptibility increase is positively correlated to the content of ultra-fine minerals and relatively strong pedogene- sis[7―15]. This offers significant information in studying the Late Cenozoic paleoclimatic history of Chinese Loess Plateau[1,5―8,10―22…     

A Peculiar Broad Line Radio Galaxy 1938-155： VLA Observation at 90 cm

We observed 1938-155, a broad line radio galaxy (BLRG), with the Very Large Array (VLA) at 90cm with an angular resolution of 6.8" × 4.0". The source consists of two components separated by 4 arcsec (- 20kpc, for H0 = 65km s-1 Mpc-1, q0 = 0.5) along the SE-NW direction. Both components show steep-spectra with a similar spectral index α - 0.83 ± 0.07 (Sv ∝ v-α). The bright double components are surrounded by a low-brightness cocoon. The radio properties of the two bright components are consistent with the hot spots produced by twin jets. An upper limit of - 0.0008 for the core dominance parameter (R) is inferred, suggesting there is no prominent radio core in the source. Assuming a modest viewing angle 30f77, a jet velocity is estimated - 0.07 c, based on the jet to counter-jet brightness ratio (J). The lower limit in jet speed inferred is consistent with no Doppler beaming effect on the jet. The radio galaxy 1938-155 could be an exceptional BLRG with no prominent radio core or jet.     

Prediction of Extreme Significant Wave Height from Daily Maxima

For prediction of the extreme significant wave height in the ocean areas where long term wave data are not available, the empirical method of extrapolating short term data (1-3 years) is used in design practice. In this paper two methods are proposed to predict extreme significant wave height based on short-term daily maxima. According to the da-a recorded by the Oceanographic Station of Liaodong Bay at the Bohai Sea, it is supposed that daily maximum wave heights are statistically independent. The data show that daily maximum wave heights obey log-normal distribution, and that the numbers of daily maxima vary from year to year, obeying binomial distribution. Based on these statistical characteristics, the binomial-log-normal compound extremum distribution is derived for prediction of extreme significant wave heights (50-100 years). For examination of its accuracy and validity, the prediction of extreme wave heights is based on 12 years' data at this station, and based on each 3 years' data respectively     

Model Test Study on Ice Induced Vibration of A Compliant Conical Structure

1.Introduction Inthedesignofoceanengineeringstructuresforcoldregioncountries,iceloadsarealwaysthe controlloads,andthedesignofice resistingstructuresisoneoftheimportantdesignaspects.Fornat uralseaice,theflexuralstrengthisalwaysonethirdofthecompressivestrength.Soconicalstructures thatcouldinducethebendingfailureoficesheetsarewidelyusedinthedesignsofice resistingstruc tures.Forexample,theplatformKullukintheBeaufortSeaisaninvertedconicalstructure,andan upward downwardbendingconeisusedonplatformJ…     

滦河三角洲滨岸沙体的形成和海岸线变迁

滦河是渤海沿海地区的多沙性河流,每年输入渤海2,670万吨泥沙,主要堆积在河口附近,在波浪作用的参与下,建造了一个发育较快的三角洲平原。据C14测定的年代数据和考古历史资料,全新世以来先后形成五个次一级三角洲堆积体。     

大洋和大陆边缘岩石圈有效弹性厚度的研究意义

大洋岩石圈有效弹性厚度分布在 (45 0± 15 0 )℃等温面内 ,并且随着加载时岩石圈年龄的增加而增加。因此 ,大洋岩石圈的挠曲刚度强烈地依赖岩石圈的热结构。一些海隆下岩石圈有效弹性厚度的降低 ,可能是岩石圈经历过热活化 ,岩石圈热年龄降低的结果。大西洋一些群岛的岩石圈有效弹性厚度小于理论值 ,则反映了岩石圈结构的不同。在海沟 ,板块的挠曲也是影响岩石圈有效弹性厚度的因素 ,它降低了岩石圈的强度。在被动大陆边缘海陆岩石圈交界处 ,向陆的方向 ,岩石圈弹性厚度比同年龄的大陆或大洋岩石圈的小 ,表明强度明显降低 ;向大洋方向 ,岩石圈的弹性厚度与正常的大洋岩石圈弹性厚度吻合。在活动大陆边缘的挠曲前陆盆地和造山带 ,岩石圈有效弹性厚度变化较大 ,部分地区受先前的岩石圈低强度影响 ,而表现出岩石圈强度的弱化。同时 ,这种方法还广泛地用于大洋中脊岩浆侵位、地幔流动、南太平洋超级海隆的动力学机制、大陆边缘的变形和构造演化、新生岩石圈的力学性质和流变学性质的研究     

Determination and control of longshore sediment transport: A case study

The fishery harbor of Karaburun coastal village is located at the south west coast of the Black Sea. The significant waves coming from north eastern direction cause considerable rate of sediment transport along 4 km sandy beach towards the fishery harbor in the region. The resulting sediment deposition near and inside the harbor entrance prevents the boat traffic and cause a vital problem for the harbor operations. In order to determine the level and reasons of the sediment transport, the long-term observations of shoreline changes, the long-term statistical analysis of wind and wave characteristics in the region, and sediment properties have been performed. The data obtained from observations, measurements and analysis were discussed. The long-term statistics of deep water significant wave heights for each direction was discussed by comparing the results obtained from different data sources and methods. For shoreline evolution, the numerical study using one-line model was applied to describe the shoreline changes with respect to probable wave conditions. Initial shoreline was obtained from the digitized image in 1996 since there was no previous shoreline measurement of the site. The results were compared using the techniques of remote sensing obtained from sequent images using IKONOS and IRS1C/D satellites.     

苏北地区泥岩欠压实现象与油气保存的关系

泥岩欠压实现象是苏北地区，特别是苏北盆地东台陷下第三系地层中重要的地质特征之一。在对泥岩欠压实现象的研究中发现，东台坳陷的泥岩中压力封闭形成时间早于毛细管封闭的形成时间,而且封闭能力较强，对第三系油气的早期保存起着重要作用。另外，欠压实的存在说明断裂、裂隙系统尚未能打破“暂时”的压力不平衡现象，具有欠压实现象的地层可以作为具有封挡能力的区域性的或圈闭的纵向封隔层。在苏北地区用欠压实表示泥岩层的封挡能力显示：新生界盆地地区和下第三系古、始新统封存条件最为优越；中生界欠压实现象不很普遍，其油气封存条件具有局部性；上古生界欠压实现象较明显，为苏北地区海相中、古生界地层中具有最优越封存条件的层系；志留系高家边组欠压实现象相对较弱。