深圳市快速抑制COVID-19疫情的非药物干预措施效果评估：基于智能体的建模研究

在2020年COVID-19第一波疫情中,通过一系列非药物干预措施,国内许多城市实现了疫情的快速抑制。对这些交叉叠加的多项干预措施进行单项措施的效果评估,识别出关键的防控策略,能够为未来的疫情防控提供重要的经验与科学依据。本研究以深圳市为例,利用融合了多源时空轨迹大数据的空间显式智能体模型评估深圳市快速抑制第一波疫情的各项非药物干预措施效果,识别出核心措施与辅助措施。模拟结果显示,在深圳市第一波疫情中,单项干预措施有效性从高到低依次为居家令、综合隔离、佩戴口罩与分批复工。其中,居家令或综合隔离均能有效抑制疫情的大范围暴发,被本研究称之为核心措施;佩戴口罩或分批复工则只能从不同程度上降低总体感染规模并延缓疫情峰值,并不能抑制疫情暴发,被本研究称之为辅助措施。考虑到社会经济成本以及常态化防疫中人群依从性降低,本研究建议在COVID-19 散发疫情防控中将核心措施与辅助措施相结合,重点实施各项隔离措施,同时将外出佩戴口罩作为疫情常态化防控手段。此外,本研究展示了结合时空大数据与智能体模型精细化模拟城市内部传染病扩散过程的优势：不仅能在城市内部高精度推演疫情发展过程,而且能够支撑评估面向个体及各类型出行活动的非药物干预措施实施效果,为制定针对性、精细化的“时间-空间-人群”防控策略提供重要的科学依据。     

Variability of the deep South China Sea circulation derived from HYCOM reanalysis data

This study aims to investigate variability of the deep South China Sea (SCS) circulation using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) global reanalysis product. The results reveal that annual cycle is a dominant component in the deep SCS circulation. Meanwhile, the boundary circulation strength is the weakest in January and peaks between June and September. The eastern and southern boundary currents strengthen/weaken one to three months earlier than that in the western and northern boundaries. Vector Empirical Orthogonal Functions (VEOF) analysis results reveal that semiannual and intraseasonal fluctuations are significant components, of which the spatial patterns are mainly confined in the northern and western boundary areas as well as the southwestern sub-basin. Wavelet analysis results show the strength of significant fluctuation varies year to year. Trend analysis results indicate a decadal weakening in the deep SCS circulation. An anomalous anticyclonic circulation, 50–70 km apart from the slope break, tends to weaken the cyclonic boundary circulation in the western and northern boundaries as well as the southwestern sub-basin. This trend is similar to the observed decadal weakening in the North Atlantic deep circulation. Thus, the findings of this study reveal that the variation of the deep SCS circulation has a remarkable response to the climate change. The mechanisms responsible for the variation are worth pursuing if more observations are available.     

Vertical velocity and transport in the South China Sea

Deep water in the South China Sea is renewed by the cold and dense Luzon Strait overflow. However, from where and how the deep water upwells is poorly understood yet. Based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis data, vertical velocity is derived to answer these questions. Domain-integrated vertical velocity is of two maxima, one in the shallow water and the other at depth, and separated by a layer of minimum at the bottom of the thermocline. Further analysis shows that this two-segmented vertical transport is attributed to the vertical compensation of subsurface water to the excessive outflow of shallow water and upward push of the dense Luzon Strait overflow, respectively. In the abyssal basin, the vertical transport increases upward from zero at the depth of 3 500–4 000 m and reaches a maximum of 1.5×106 m3/s at about 1 500 m. Deep water upwells mainly from the northeastern and southwestern ends of the abyssal basin and off the continental slopes. To explain the upward velocity arising from slope breaks, a possible mechanism is proposed that an onshore velocity component can be derived from the deep western boundary current above steep slopes under bottom friction.     

Co-seismic deformation derived from GPS observations during April 20th, 2013 Lushan Earthquake,Sichuan, China

We process the standard 30 s, static GPS data and the 1 s, high-rate GPS (HRGPS) data provided by the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China with GAMIT/GLOBK software package, and obtain the co-seismic displacements of near field and far field, and the epoch-by-epoch time series of HRGPS during Lushan earthquake. GPS data from about 20 sites in Sichuan province, which located between 40 and 450 km from the epicenter, are analyzed so as to study the characteristics of the static displacements and the dynamic crustal deformations, with periods ranging from several minutes to over a month. The result shows that: the static displacements caused by Lushan earthquake are limited to several centimeters; the nearest station SCTQ at 43 km from the epicenter has the largest static displacement of about 2 cm, while the other stations generally have insignificant displacements of less than 5 mm. the stations in the east of Sichuan–Yunnan region shifts 5–10 mm toward the southwest, and the stations in the middle-west of Sichuan Basin moves indistinctively 1–2 mm toward the northwest; station SCTQ has the largest kinematic displacement of about 4 and 3 cm peak-to-peak on the north and east component, respectively, and is much greater than the static permanent displacement; for the stations located at a distance greater than 150 km from the epicenter, the kinematic motions are generally insignificant; exceptionally, station SCNC and station SCSN in central Sichuan Basin have significant kinematic motions although they are more than 200 km away from the epicenter.     

新疆阿尔泰山圆叶桦空间分布对温度变化的响应

阿尔泰山圆叶桦由于生长周期短、对气候变化反应灵敏,具有典型的指示意义.以长时间序列遥感数据为基础,借助GIS技术和分形插值方法,研究近24 a来阿尔泰山圆叶桦的空间分布对温度变化的响应,结果表明：近24 a来阿尔泰山气温上升速率为0.18℃·（10a）^-1,圆叶桦面积增速达7.28%,圆叶桦随随温度上升呈显著增长,且温度上升速率越大,圆叶桦面积增长越快;圆叶桦分布的平均海拔随温度升高呈上升趋势,温度上升不仅促进了圆叶桦面积的扩大,还抬高了圆叶桦分布的平均海拔,且温度变化对海拔较高区域的植被生长影响力较大;各坡向圆叶桦面积随温度的上升均有所增加,温度上升对阳坡圆叶桦影响显著,对阴坡圆叶桦影响微弱.     

呼图壁地下储气库部分区域地表垂直形变机理研究

利用在呼图壁地下储气库开展的2013~2015年7期二等水准测量获得的高差数据,对由于地表气井压力变化影响而发生的地下储气库地表垂直变形进行了分析。研究表明,呼图壁地下储气库区的地表变形除了构造成因引起的盆地下沉以外,其他主要形变成因来源有2个方面：一个是呼图壁地区的地下水超采影响着该地区的地表垂直变化;另一个是储气库集采气期间井口压力变化影响下的地表沉降,根据计算,储气库每MPa气井压力变化影响到的地表变化约为0.625~1.125mm。     

Dynamic analysis and evaluation of Xinjiang forest resources: based on RS and GIS

The forest resources in Xinjiang were surveyed and analyzed based on RS and GIS. Satellite data interpretation was adopted to obtain the general situation of Xinjiang forest resources in assistance with the sampling method and on-the-spot investigations. Based on GIS, related data obtained from satellite remote sensing in 1996 and 2001 were studied through contrastive analysis. Moreover, the dynamic variation of Xinjiang forest resources was studied in an all-around way. In the past five years, the areas of the forestland, woodland, sparse woodland, nursery garden and the land usable for forestry in Xinjiang kept growing, moreover, the forest cover rate and the total standing stock volume increased correspondingly, showing that the wooded area and the amount of growing stock in Xinjiang were increasing. The forestland area in Xinjiang went up to 17,837 km2 from 17,331 km2, with an annual average increase of 101 km2. Accordingly, the forest vegetation came to 1.08% from 1.05%, up 0.03 percentage point; the total standing stock volume went up to 289,985,200 m3 from 262,416,000 m3, a total increase of 27,569,200 m3, an annual average increase of 5,514,000 m3 and an annual average net growth rate of 2.00%. The analysis results showed that the forest resources in Xinjiang were increasing on the whole, however, there remained some problems, such as the sparse natural forests, low forest cover rate, imbalanced wood age structure, and mono tree species composition, etc.     

别里库姆沙漠胡杨回涡沙丘表层沉积物粒度特征

胡杨回涡沙丘是别里库姆沙漠常见的一种风积地貌类型,通过测试分析来自6个样区胡杨回涡沙丘的195个表层沉积物样品,结合粒级-标准偏差法、Sahu成因判别和相关统计分析法,对其粒度特征进行研究,以分析别里库姆沙漠表层沉积物类型、沉积环境的稳定性。结果表明:(1)胡杨回涡沙丘表层沉积物粒度组成以砂和粉砂为主,从北向南、从东向西沉积物粒级均呈现变细趋势。(2)6个样区平均粒径的均值属于极细砂或细砂范围,71.79%的物质样品分选较好,97.94%的沉积物样品属于近对称分布,100%的物质样品属于中等峰态。(3)6个样区的粒级-标准偏差曲线均呈现多峰分布,沉积环境不稳定。(4)6个样区胡杨回涡沙丘表层沉积物的Sahu成因判别值介于-7.277~ -5.912,均属于风成沉积。     

A Structural Interpretation Model and Restoration of the Mesozoic Proto-basin for the Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin

A thrust-fold belt consisting of a series of thrusts and buckling folds developed in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic strata within the Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin. In this study, a structural interpretation model of the Kuqa Depression is established and the Mesozoic proto-basin is reconstructed on the basis of outcrop geology along the basin margin, seismic,well-log and CEMP data. The model is called ‘delaminate contractional deformation’, which emphasizes the decoupling between the Cenozoic, Mesozo...     

Observed Near Inertial Waves in the Wake of Typhoon Linfa(2015) in the Northern South China Sea

This study examined the characteristics and vertical propagation of near inertial waves(NIWs) induced by Typhoon Linfa(2015), based on in situ observations conducted southeast of Dongsha Islands in the South China Sea. The results demonstrate that the near inertial currents induced by Linfa had velocities up to 35 cm s-1 in the mixed layer and 20 cm s-1 in the ocean interior. The near inertial currents were polarized with predominantly clockwise-rotating components, the magnitudes of which were about 10 times larger than the counter-clockwise rotating components. The energy density spectrum showed that the emergence of NIWs resulted in energy redistribution from the diurnal band to the near inertial band. The wavenumber spectrum and the downward/upward current decomposition demonstrated that the NIWs and energy flux propagated mainly downward. The estimated vertical phase velocity and group velocity are 1.44 and 0.48 m h-1, respectively, corresponding to a vertical wavelength of 49.7 m. The e-folding time scale was 7.5 d based on the near inertial kinetic energy in the ocean interior. We found no obvious wave–wave interaction during the decay process of the NIWs. The frequency was blue-shifted, being 0.03 f0 higher than the local inertial frequency, which was caused by the background vorticity. The normal mode analysis suggests that the higher mode plays a dominant role in the propagation stage of the NIWs.