Long-term variations of surface and intermediate waters in the southern Indian Ocean along 32°S

Variations of water properties in surface and intermediate layers along 32°S in the southern Indian Ocean were examined using a 50-year (1960–2010) time series reproduced from historical hydrographic and Argo data by using optimum interpolation. Salinity in the 26.7–27.3σ_θ density layer decreased significantly over the whole section, at a maximum rate of 0.02 decade⁻¹ at 26.8–26.9σ_θ, for the 50-year average. Three deoxygenating cores were identified east of 75°E, and the increasing rate of apparent oxygen utilization in the most prominent core (26.9–27.0σ_θ) exceeded 0.05 ml l⁻¹ decade⁻¹. The pycnostad core of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and the salinity minimum of Antarctic Intermediate Water shifted slightly toward the lighter layers. Comparisons with trans-Indian Ocean survey data from 1936 suggest that the tendencies found in the time series began before 1960. Interestingly, cores of many prominent trends were located just offshore of Australia at 26.7–27.0σ_θ, which is in the SAMW density range. Spectrum analysis revealed that two oscillation components with time scales of about 40 and 10 years were dominant in the subsurface layers. Our results are fairly consistent with, and thus support, the oceanic responses in the southern Indian Ocean to anthropogenic climate change predicted by model studies.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and El Niño events during 1981–2005

We investigate the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and upwelling along Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) north coast before the onset of El Niño events using a hindcast experiment with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Coastal upwelling and related SST cooling appear along PNG north coast during the boreal winter before the onsets of six El Niño events occurring during 1981–2005. Relatively cool SSTs appear along PNG north coast during that time, when anomalous northwesterly surface wind stress, which can cause coastal upwelling by offshore Ekman transport appearing over the region. In addition, anomalous cooling tendencies of SST are observed, accompanying anomalous upward velocities at the base of the mixed layer and shallow anomalies of 27°C isotherm depth. It is also shown that entrainment cooling plays an important role in the cooling of the mixed layer temperature in this region.     

Fragility curves for expressway embankments based on damage datasets after recent earthquakes in Japan

The seismometer network of the Japanese expressway system was enhanced following the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Based on earthquake information from the instruments of the seismometer network, a traffic control is performed directly after the event because of the potential for damage to expressway structures. Expressways serve as vital trunk lines of transportation and are important for the restoration of damage-stricken areas. Therefore, earthquake-induced damage to expressway structures should be estimated as soon as possible. Expressway embankments were seriously damaged during recent earthquakes, such as the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake. The present study constructs the fragility curves of expressway embankments in Japan in order to estimate the damage distribution immediately after an earthquake. Damage datasets for expressways are compiled for the 2003 Northern-Miyagi earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu earthquake, and the 2007 Niigata Chuetsu-oki earthquake. The spatial distributions of the peak ground velocity (PGV) are estimated for these four earthquakes in order to evaluate the relationship between the damage ratio of expressway embankments and the PGV. Statistical analysis is then conducted in order to draw the fragility curves for expressway embankments. Based on the fragility curves, major damage that disrupts ordinary expressway traffic may occur when the peak ground velocity exceeds approximately 35.0 cm/s. The fragility curves constructed in the present study are helpful for predicting the damage distribution on expressways soon after an earthquake, which enables efficient traffic control and rapid disaster response.     

Preliminary results of in-situ XCTD/CTD comparison test

The current status of XCTD manufactured by the Tsurumi Seiki Co. is described based on XCTD/CTD comparison tests conducted in the Pacific and Indian Ocean in November 1996 and January 1997 respectively. The falling rates of used probes are generally consistent and differences between individual probes stay within a small range of +/−5 m through the full depth range (0–1000 m), although the rate is slightly different from the depth-time equation provided by the manufacturer. Temperature and salinity accuracy is estimated to be better than 0.05°C and 0.05 psu respectively. Comparison of vertical temperature/salinity sections of XCTD/CTD constructed separately along a line on which XCTD stations locate midway of CTD stations. The hydrographic structures obtained are generally consistent, and the difference of surface dynamic height (referred to 1000 db) is 0.03 dyn m in RMS.     

Global surface layer salinity change detected by Argo and its implication for hydrological cycle intensification

We investigated changes in the global distribution of surface-layer salinity by comparing 2003–2007 Argo-float data with annual mean climatological surface-layer salinity data for 1960–1989 from the World Ocean Database 2005. The two datasets showed similar patterns, with low values in subpolar and tropical regions and higher values in the subtropics. The recent Argo data indicate that the contrast between low and high salinity has intensified in all areas except the subpolar North Atlantic. The intensified contrast of the surface layer salinity was maintaining for 2003–2007. Using a simple method, we attempted to estimate evaporation and precipitation changes on the basis of surface-layer salinity changes. The results show a high probability that the global hydrological cycle has increased in the past 30 years.     

Determination of the freshwater origin of Coastal Oyashio Water using humic-like fluorescence in dissolved organic matter

Coastal Oyashio Water (COW), defined as a water mass with a temperature lower than 2 °C and a salinity lower than 33.0, is distributed in the North Pacific Ocean off southeastern Hokkaido, Japan, from winter to spring. COW is rich in macronutrients and dissolved iron and is thus considered to affect the spring phytoplankton blooms in the Oyashio region. Although river water and sea-ice melt water have been considered freshwater end-members of COW, the contributions of these freshwater sources to COW have not been well described. In this study, the humic-like components in dissolved organic matter were first applied as a parameter to evaluate the freshwater end-members of COW in March 2015. Linear regressions with negative slopes were determined between the humic-like components and the salinity of COW. The intercepts of the regressions against the humic-like components were within the ranges of those observed for the local rivers of Hokkaido but were very different from those of sea ice. These findings suggest that river water contributed to the COW observed here as a freshwater end-member, although the contribution of sea-ice melt water to COW could not be evaluated. This novel approach also highlighted two different less-saline water masses in COW. The first was characterized by a lower temperature and relatively high levels of humic-like components, while the second was higher in temperature and had higher levels of humic-like components. It is suggested that these different characteristics are due to the contributions of water from different rivers and/or different effects of sea-ice melt water.     

Seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength over the West African monsoon region in an atmospheric general circulation model

Abstract

The seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength has been examined using an extended series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. In the Western Sahel of Africa, strong coupling strength for precipitation is found in April and May, just prior to and at the beginning of the monsoon season. At this time, heat and water fluxes from the surface are strongly controlled by land conditions, and the unstable conditions in the lower level of the troposphere, as induced by local land state, allow the surface fluxes to influence the variability of convective precipitation—and thus the timing of monsoon onset.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz

Citation Yamada, T.J., Kanae, S., Oki, T., and Koster, R.D., 2013. Seasonal variation of land–atmosphere coupling strength over the West African monsoon region in an atmospheric general circulation model. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1276–1286.     

Development of a global flood risk index based on natural and socio-economic factors

Abstract

A global flood risk index (FRI) is established, based on both natural and social factors. The advanced flood risk index (AFRI) is the expectation of damage in the case of a single flood occurrence, estimated by a linear regression-based approach as a function of hazard and vulnerability metrics. The resulting equations are used to predict potential flood damage given gridded global data for independent variables. It is new in the aspect that it targets floods by units of events, instead of a long-term trend. Moreover, the value of the AFRI is that it can express relative potential flood risk with the process of flood damage occurrence considered. The significance of this study is that not only the hazard parameters which contribute directly to flood occurrence, but vulnerability parameters which reflect the conditions of the region where flood occurred, including its residential and social characteristics, were shown quantitatively to affect flood damage.

Citation Okazawa, Y., Yeh, P., Kanae, S. & Oki, T. (2011) Development of a global flood risk index based on natural and socioeconomic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 789–804.