气象、农业和水文干旱之间关联性分析

干旱具有发生频率高、持续时间长、波及范围广的特点。而干旱预报为科学地进行防旱抢险提供了决策支持。选取反映不同类型干旱的指标,即标准化降雨指标(SPI)、标准化土壤湿度指标(SSWI)和标准化径流指标(SRI),通过SWAT模型和带有时滞的灰色关联判断了各干旱之间的时滞。以陆浑水库控制流域为例进行了分析,结果表明:SWAT模型在该流域有很好的适用性,1975—2009年间发生各类干旱的次数在增加,且变率上从气象干旱、农业干旱到水文干旱有所增加,同时不同类型干旱之间表现出了一定的时滞关系,气象干旱对农业干旱的响应时间为1个月;水文干旱对气象干旱的响应时间为4个月;水文干旱对农业干旱的响应时间为2个月。     

基于最佳用途的土地用途有偿管制机制探索

当前基于现状用途的管制存在管制方式偏行政化、管制手段无偿化导致农村集体土地收益偏向国有、非农产业和城市分配,重塑用途管制制度已显示出迫切性。本文探索基于最佳用途,通过"用途差"和"用途差"交易实现土地用途有偿管制的机制,认为通过用途有偿管制机制不仅可以保护农用地,特别是耕地资源,保障土地资源的可持续利用。而且,可激活土地资源价值,特别是有助于农用地资源资产、资本化,缩小农村、农业和农民家庭资产与收入与城镇的差距。     

金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。     

Numerical Experiments of Meiyu(Baiu) Rainfall by Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model with Terrain

In this paper, a 10-level Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area Model is used to simulate the process of Meiyu(Baiu) front of 1979. Some physical processes, such as large-scale condensation and cumulus convection, are included in the model. The simulation results are encouraging. 24-h numerical simulation shows that the invading of cold air from North China and rapidly northward moving of warm air from South China can be successfully reproduced. The terrain with a maximum of 4175 m is incorporated in the model. Three different kinds of terrain schemes are tested and the dynamic effect of the Plateau on the process of heavy rainfall is found to be very important.     

A further study on an extended nonlinear ocean—atmosphere coupled hydrodynamic characteristic system and the abrupt feature of ENSO events

In this paper, the decade data of meteorological satellite and surface meteorological observation of China have been analysed. The relationship between cloud and radiation has been studied. A set of empirical formulae of the ralationships between the albedo and cloud amount, the outgoing longwave radiation and cloud amount in Chinese different districts and different seasons has been deduced. They express simply the response of both planet reflectivity and earth-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation to the change of cloud amount. So that the sensitivity of net radiation of the earth-atmosphere system to the change of cloud amount and the ratio of cloud reflective effect to greenhouse effect can be estimated. In this paper, the radiative process of the earth-atmosphere system, cloud and radiative balance and its effect on climate have been synthetically studied. ¹The project is supported by National Natural Sciences Fundation of China (NNSFC).     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

Sensitive response of desert vegetation to moisture change based on a near-annual resolution pollen record from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin, northwest China

We present a 50-year pollen record at near-annual resolution from Gahai Lake in the Qaidam Basin on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Chronology of a 22-cm short core was established by ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analysis. The pollen results at 0.5 cm intervals show large changes in Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae (A/C) ratios from < 0.2 to 0.95 in the last 50 years. High (low) A/C ratios represent increase (decrease) in steppe pollen production, which correspond to high (low) relative humidity observed at nearby Delingha weather station. On the basis of good correspondence with instrumental records and carbonate content from Gahai Lake, we conclude that A/C ratio is sensitive to moisture change and can be a very useful index in reconstructing paleoclimate of arid regions. Comparison with pollen and snow accumulation data from Dunde ice core suggests that effective moisture at low and high elevations shows the opposite relationship when mountain precipitation was extremely high, possibly due to topography-induced uplifting and subsiding air dynamics.     

多边形统计数据空间分析的不确定性研究——以北京市海淀区人口普查数据为例

普查数据是地理学空间分析的重要数据源。由于受到数据与计算机处理能力的限制,以往的研究对普查数据空间分析的不确定性未给予足够重视,也未形成成熟的研究方法。在建筑物单元的人口普查数据支持下,本文基于多边形统计数据的可塑面积单元问题(Modifiable areal unit problem,MAUP)特征,设计了一种该类数据空间分析不确定性的研究方法,采用不同的尺度(Scale)及分区(Zoning)系统对多边形的统计数据空间分析的准确性进行了分析。实验引入尺度与形态指数,利用可视化分析和数据拟合的研究方法,对尺度及分区对空间分析结果的影响模式进行了模拟。研究结果表明:(1)以统计小区的空间分析,其结果受统计小区空间形态的影响较大,不确定性强,不能充分反映统计数据本身的空间特征;(2)规则格网能较好地保持原始统计数据的空间分布特征,但仍然受尺度及分区影响;(3)规则格网的空间分析结果及其准确性与尺度有较好的拟合关系,不同尺度下的分析结果不确定性是原始数据不同尺度特征的体现;(4)分区效应受空间分析方法的计算尺度影响,两者共同对空间分析结果产生影响。对于固定尺度的规则格网,其邻接多边形数目是分析结果不确定的主要原因。本文研究结果表明,在多边形统计数据空间分析时,应该对其使用规则格网重新聚合,并根据实际应用的需求选择多尺度分析方法,以达到实际应用目的。     

Biomarker records of phytoplankton productivity and community structure changes during the last 14000 years in the mud area southwest off Cheju Island, East China Sea

The ecological environment in the East China Sea (ECS) and the Yellow Sea (YS) has changed significantly due to sea-level rising and the Kuroshio incursion since the last deglaciation. In this study, biomarker records of core F10B from the mud area southwest off Cheju Island (MSWCI) were generated to evaluate phytoplankton productivity and community structure changes in response to environmental evolution during the last 14 kyr. The contents of diatom, dinoflagellate and haptophyte biomarkers (brassicasterol, dinosterol and C₃₇ alkenones) display similar trends, with increasing phytoplankton productivity during the last 14 kyr due to the increased influences of the Kuroshio, and especially due to the eddy-induced upwelling during the late Holocene. On the other hand, the contents of terrestrial biomarkers (C₂₈ +C₃₀ +C₃₂ n-alkanols) and terrestrial organic matter (TOM) proxies (TMBR’ and BIT) all reveal decreasing TOM input into the area around the sampling site for the 14 kyr, mostly due to sea-level rising. Phytoplankton biomarker ratios reveal a shift from a haptophyte-dominated community at 6.2–2.5 kyr BP to a diatom-dominated community at 2.5–1.45 kyr BP, likely caused by a stronger cold eddy circulation system at 2.5–1.45 kyr BP in the MSWCI.     

Human settlement evaluation in mountain areas based on remote sensing, GIS and ecological niche modeling

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the world’s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent), an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial autocorrelation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold-independent model performance was reasonable according to 10 times model running, with the area under the curve (AUC) values being 0.917 ± 0.01, and 0.923 ± 0.002 for test data. Cohen’s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas accounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km², and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area. The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables: mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management.