一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。     

The Nadanhada Terrane

Abstract The Nadanhada terrane, a Jurassic disrupted terrane in Heilongjiang Province of China, is principally composed of Permo- Carboniferous limestone and greenstone, Triassic bedded chert and middle Jurassic siliceous shale, all enclosed within younger (presumably Late Jurassic- Early Cretaceous) clastics. Palaeontological and lithological characteristics and structural features of these formations are entirely identical to those of the Mino terrane of the Japanese Islands. Prior to opening of the Sea of Japan, these terranes formed a single superterrane together with the Western Sikhote-Alin terrane. Tectono-stratigraphic terranes very similar to the Nadanhada and Mino terranes are also found in the Ryukyu are, the Philippines and probably in Borneo. All these terranes constituted a belt of accretionary complexes during Late Jurassic and / or Early Cretaceous time along the eastern continental margin of Asia after completion of the Triassic collage of the Chinese continent.     

大震前地下水位异常与应力异常区

利用井口水位对潮汐应力的响应，分析了含水层对强震孕育过程中应力变化的响应。结果显示，当含水层的瞬时应力变化值大于临界值时，水位的异常图像为阶变形态；当含水层的瞬时应力变化值小于临界值，但某一时段的累计值大于临界值时，水位的异常图像为缓变形态。而水位异常图像出现的上升或下降形态，取决于井孔含水层系统在大震孕育过程的应力调整再积累阶段所处的构造部位。水位震前异常的特征，源于地震孕育过程中应力异常区的形成。     

Experimental study on the dynamic modulus of compacted loess under bidirectional dynamic load

The dynamic characteristics of compacted loess are of great significance to the seismic construction of the Loess Plateau area in Northwest China, where earthquakes frequently occur. To study the change in the dynamic modulus of the foundation soil under the combined action of vertical and horizontal earthquakes, a hollow cylindrical torsion shear instrument capable of vibrating in four directions was used to perform two-way coupling of compression and torsion of Xi'an compacted loess under different dry density and deviator stress ratios. The results show that increasing the dry density can improve the initial dynamic compression modulus and initial dynamic shear modulus of compacted loess. With an increase in the deviator stress ratio, the initial dynamic compression modulus increases, to a certain extent, but the initial dynamic shear modulus decreases slightly. The dynamic modulus gradually decreases with the development of dynamic strain and tends to be stable, and the dynamic modulus that reaches the same strain increases with an increasing dry density. At the initial stage of dynamic loading, the attenuation of the dynamic shear modulus with the strain development is faster than that of the dynamic compression modulus. Compared with previous research results, it is determined that the dynamic modulus of loess under bidirectional dynamic loading is lower and the attenuation rate is faster than that under single-direction dynamic loading. The deviator stress ratio has a more obvious effect on the dynamic compression modulus. The increase in the deviator stress ratio can increase the dynamic compression modulus, to a certain extent. However, the deviator stress ratio has almost no effect on the dynamic shear modulus, and can therefore be ignored.     

在SeisDps实时系统中用零点、极点计算ML的过程

在SeisDps地震处理软件的实时系统中,不是用系统的幅频特性计算震级ML,而是利用台站的零点、极点和增益,将记录的数字地震波形仿真成伍德-安德森地震仪记录的波形,计算具有3 大优点的ML震级,本文主要介绍用零点、极点和增益计算ML的过程。     

Paleogene marine deposition records of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea: An overview

A compilation of available marine deposition data from offshore S-SE China reveals evidence of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea (SCS) during the Paleogene. Marine deposition started earlier in the Paleocene in the East China Sea (ECS)-Taiwan region before expanding southwestward into the SCS region in the middle Eocene. Our data indicate the existence of an elongated Paleogene China Sea in these areas stretching along the northeasterly structural belts, probably as part of the marginal western paleo-Pacific. The southwestward shift of marine influence in the middle Eocene was responding to a period of intensive rifting and subsidence in the SCS region, while the sea in the ECS-Taiwan region started to shrink and shoal after the late Eocene, likely associated with local breakup and initial spreading in the Taiwan-Taixinan Basin area. The accumulation of hemipelagic sediments at ODP 1148 and IODP U1435 from near the continent-ocean boundary and at many other shelf-slope sites was in response to a large-scale breakup 34 to 33 Ma ago, subsequently leading to the birth of the SCS in the Oligocene.     

Effects of initial soil water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity variability on small watershed runoff simulation using LISEM

Abstract

Soil water content (θ) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) vary in space. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of initial soil water content (θ_i) and K_s variability on runoff simulations using the LImburg Soil Erosion Model (LISEM) in a small watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau, based on model parameters derived from intensive measurements. The results showed that the total discharge (TD) and peak discharge (PD) were underestimated when the variability of θ_i and K_s was partially considered or completely ignored compared with those when the variability was fully considered. Time to peak (TP) was less affected by the spatial variability compared to TD and PD. Except for TP in some cases, significant differences were found in all hydrological variables (TD, PD and TP) between the cases in which spatial variability of θ_i or K_s was fully considered and those in which spatial variability was partially considered or completely ignored. Furthermore, runoff simulations were affected more strongly by K_s variability than by θ_i variability. The degree of spatial variability influences on runoff simulations was related to the rainfall pattern and θ_i. Greater rainfall depth and instantaneous rainfall intensity corresponded to a smaller influence of the spatial variability. Stronger effects of the θ_i variability on runoff simulation were found in wetter soils, while stronger effects of the K_s variability were found in drier soils. For accurate runoff simulation, the θ_i variability can be completely ignored in cases of a 1-h duration storm with a return period greater than 10 years, while K_s variability should be fully considered even in the case of a 1-h duration storm with a return period of 20 years.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Fiori     

Regulating Environmental Factors of Nutrients Release from Wheat Straw Biochar for Sustainable Agriculture

One mechanism by which biochar application enhances soil nutrient availability is through direct nutrients release from biochar. However, factors controlling the release processes are poorly understood. In this study, the effects of pH, biochar to water ratio, temperature, ionic strength, and equilibration time on the release of PO, NO, NH, K⁺, Na⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ from biochar were evaluated in simulated experiments. The release of PO, K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺ was significantly affected by extraction pH, suggesting that their release from biochar was pH dependent or an H⁺‐consuming process. Correlation analysis indicated that PO and Ca²⁺, PO and Mg²⁺, and Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ were co‐solubilized with increasing soil acidity. To a lesser extent, the recovery of the nutrients was also affected by the ratio of biochar to water: more nutrients were soluble with more water supply. In contrast, the release of Na was not affected by pH while the concentration increased with decreasing biochar to water ratio. Meanwhile, other factors (temperature, ionic strength, and equilibration time) had less effect on nutrient release from biochar. Under the influence of pH, the patterns of NO and PO release from biochar were different: extractable NO concentration was not affected by the pH but more PO was released in strongly acidic conditions. Our data suggested that P was mainly retained in inorganic forms while N was in organic forms in biochar. We conclude that environmental factors have marked influences on nutrients release from biochar.     

Heavy Metal Pollution in Sediments from Aquatic Ecosystems in China

We conducted an analysis of heavy metals content, including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn in sediments from aquatic ecosystems in China measured in recent publications. Then, we evaluated the extent of heavy metal pollution in these ecosystems in seven different industrial districts in China (Dongbei, Huabei, Huazhong, Huanan, Huaxik, Xibei, and Huadong) with the potential ecological risk index. We found that Cd was the most concentrated pollutant, followed by Hg and As, while Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn were found in low concentrations in sediments from all types of aquatic ecosystem in China. Sediments collected from all seven industrial districts were heavily polluted, and the sequence, from most to least polluted was Dongbei>Huabei>Huazhong>Huanan>Huaxi>Xibei>Huadong. All four types of aquatic ecosystem were found to be seriously polluted and the sequence, from most to least polluted was: river>sea>lake>wetland. Specifically, Cd and Hg were the most serious pollutants in all four aquatic ecosystems, and As was also a serious pollutant in rivers. For the seven industrial districts studied the sea was the most polluted ecosystem in Dongbei, the river was the most polluted ecosystem in Huabei, Huanan, Huazhong, and the lake was the most polluted in Huadong, Huaxi, and Xibei.     

A numerical study of mechanical behavior of a cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching

Based on relevant experimental data of a petroleum cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching, an elastic‐plastic model is first proposed by taking into account plastic shearing and pore collapse. The degradation of mechanical properties induced by the chemical leaching is characterized by a chemical damage variable which is defined as the increase of porosity. Both elastic and plastic properties of the cement paste are affected by the chemical damage. The proposed model is calibrated from and applied to describe mechanical responses in triaxial compression tests respectively on sound and fully leached samples. In the second part, a phenomenological chemical model is defined to establish the relationship between porosity change and calcium dissolution process. The dissolution kinetics is governed by a diffusion law taking into account the variation of diffusion coefficient with calcium concentration. The chemical model is coupled with the mechanical model, and both are applied to describe mechanical response of cement paste samples subjected to progressive chemical leaching and compressive stresses. Comparisons between experimental data and numerical results are presented.