Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

环渤海地区4～10天风速预报中相似预报法的应用

依据逐步相似过滤法和最小相似离度原理,利用NCEP逐日再分析资料、T213数值预报产品和环渤海72站1958—2008年地面观测站风速资料,建立不同因子组合的相似过滤方案,制作环渤海72站4～10天每日4次、日最大风速预报。通过多个相似过滤方案预报准确率检验,确定“最佳”逐步相似过滤方案。经过2007—2008年预报检验表明：每日4次风速预报中,0~2级风速的预报效果最好,4～10天平均TS评分达到67%;日最大风速预报中,3~4级4～10天平均TS评分为54.1%,5级及以上的TS评分为17.1%。在风力不太强的情况下,该方法对于中期风速预报有一定的参考价值。     

超慢速扩张环境下超镁铁质岩系统的热液硫化物成矿机理以及启示

西南印度洋63.5°E热液区是在超慢速扩张洋脊发现的首个超镁铁质岩热液系统。对取自该区的热液硫化物样品进行了系统的矿物学和地球化学分析,矿物学分析结果表明:该热液区硫化物为富Fe型高温硫化物,且经历了较深程度的氧化蚀变,大量中间态的Fe氧化物充填在硫化物矿物间的孔隙及内部解理中;这些硫化物相以白铁矿为主,其次是等轴古巴矿和少量铜蓝,缺乏黄铁矿、闪锌矿。据推断,该区的热液成矿作用分为4个阶段:低温白铁矿阶段→高温等轴古巴矿阶段→自形白铁矿阶段→后期海底风化阶段（少量铜蓝以及大量的Fe的羟氧化物）。与之相对应,地球化学分析结果表明这些硫化物的Fe含量较高（31.57%~44.59%）,Cu含量次之（0.16%~7.24%）,而Zn含量普遍较低（0.01%~0.11%）;微量元素较为富集Co（328×10-6~2 400×10-6）和Mn（48.5×10-6~1 730×10-6）。该区硫化物中较高含量的Fe、Co与超镁铁质岩热液系统相似,明显高于镁铁质岩热液系统。独特的热液硫化物矿物学特征和元素组成可能与该区普遍出露的地幔岩、橄榄岩蛇纹石化作用以及拆离断层的广泛发育的环境有关。     

菲降解菌的降解特性及酶促反应动力学研究

通过对取自MBR膜生物反应器中的活性污泥加入菲进行富集培养、驯化,分离、纯化出一株能以菲为唯一碳源和能源的短杆状革兰氏阴性菌J-1,细菌长2～5μm,宽1～3μm;研究了初始底物浓度、温度、pH对菌株J-1降解菲的影响,探讨了菌株J-1胞内酶对菲降解的底物抑制动力学。试验表明:菌株J-1在48h内能将不同浓度菲的水溶液中的菲完全降解;菲浓度增加,达到完全降解的时间延长。温度对细菌的降解能力影响较大,菌株J-1对菲降解的最佳温度为28℃。1.15mg·L-1的菲,28℃时48h内能完全降解,而相同时间内10℃时的降解率仅为36.65%。菌株J-1对pH的波动具有一定的适应性,pH在一定范围内(6.0～8.4)变化对菲降解的影响不大,降解反应的最佳pH为7.2。菌株J-1对菲的降解符合一级动力学反应方程。较高的底物浓度对酶促降解反应具有抑制作用,酶促反应的最大速率常数vm=1.17mg·L-1·h-1,米氏常数Km=61.70mg·L-1;底物抑制常数kS=49.60mg·L-1;最佳底物浓度[S]opt=55.32mg·L-1。     

NECESSITY AND METHOD OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONFor recent years, many countries have increasingly paidattention to the research on strategic environmental as-sessment (SEA) and taken it as one of key supportingtools for pursing sustainable development (BROWNand THERIVEL, 2000; PRARTIDARIO…     

啤麦穗粒结构的分阶段气候评价和预报方法研究

通过对十多年来啤麦穗粒结构与气象条件的关系的计算分析,得出了啤麦不同生育阶段影响穗粒结构的主要气象要素,并建立起其间的线性关系模式,为对啤麦产量构成要素进行分阶段的气候评价和预报提供了新的方法。     

边坡虹吸排水管内空气积累原因及应对措施

坡体地下水位上升是诱发滑坡的重要因素,实时排出地下水是防治边坡地质灾害的有效手段。虹吸排水具有免动力和流动过程由液位变化自动控制的物理特性,可满足实时排出坡体地下水的需要,但虹吸管中空气积累会导致虹吸过程中断,制约了边坡虹吸排水技术的推广应用。溶解于水的空气因虹吸管内压力降低而释出是形成气泡的物理基础。实验结果表明,虹吸进水口水面以上垂直高度3.5 m以上就会出现大量气泡,经过虹吸顶点后,气泡发生强烈的兼并形成大气泡。当虹吸管的进出水口的水头差较大时,气泡间的水弹容易推动气泡从出水口排出。当虹吸管直径大于5 mm时,缓慢的虹吸流动,会发生管内气泡的积累,最终破坏虹吸过程;虹吸管的直径小于4 mm时,可以形成基本稳定的弹状流。因此,为保持边坡虹吸过程长期有效,经常性降雨并且坡体地下水丰富的地区可选用直径为5 mm的虹吸管,非经常性降雨的地区应选择小于等于4 mm的虹吸管。     

Simulated various characteristic waves in acoustic full waveform relating to cement bond on the secondary interface

Bad cement bond with water channeling or low strength cement is usually generated on the first and/or secondary interfaces which lie between the cement and casing, and the cement and formation, respectively. It is an inherently complicated problem to evaluate cement bond on the secondary interface (SICB) in a cased borehole. So we need to find a useful wave for evaluating SICB and provide its propagation features. To achieve this, we simulated the acoustic full waveform, 2-D spectrum and dispersion curves in cased boreholes based on the real axis integration method, and a propagator matrix. Simulation results indicated that “casing-cement mode” wave can be utilized to evaluate SICB, as it is most sensitive to water channeling on the secondary interface. Velocity of this mode wave is in between that of the casing wave and the formation wave, so that it is easy to extract it in time. The dispersion curves showed that the casing-cement wave is a dispersion wave, but not a pseudo-Rayleigh wave. Its velocity is obviously larger than v_s of cement. Simulation results further indicated that the amplitude of casing-cement wave is decreasing with increasing cement sheath thickness, but not water channeling thickness, and its travel time is influenced by casing and cement together. Moreover, we investigated factors influencing the casing–cement wave and found that casing diameter and peak frequency are major factors influencing the amplitude and the travel time, while other factors, such as P-wave velocities of cement and wall thickness of casing, are minor factors. But none of these factors greatly influence bond index which is computed from the amplitude. So the bond index has an advantage over the amplitude during evaluating SICB. Formation wave is a helpful signal to evaluate low strength cement without water channeling, and its amplitude is mainly related to the velocities (or impedances) of both cement and formation except for formation attenuation and disturbance wave. Experimental data in calibration pits and field data detecting channeling demonstrated the simulation results.     

黑洞大型古地下洞室群工程地质条件及岩体稳定性分析

位于浙江天台县蟹山山体内的黑洞洞室群, 以其优越的工程地质条件和完整的岩体结构, 自隋朝以来成为大型古地下采石场。洞室群包括总面积达24 000 m²的21个洞室, 其长轴方向基本沿两组主要地质结构面走向展布。研究显示:总体采石层系上白垩统塘上组(K₂t)第6层灰白色含玻屑熔结凝灰岩;岩体质量指标Q值计算结果为53(I级)。按现代地下洞室设计理念, 其长期稳定最大跨度应不大于50 m, 但实际上5号洞最大跨度达81 m, 可望成为地下人工岩石单洞跨度之最。现场调查发现, 古人在蟹山山脚残留多处地质探洞。古代工匠在洞室开挖过程中遇到断层破碎带时, 采用了近垂直、小断面、高台阶穿越技术方法, 有效保证了不良地质体中无支护开采的安全性和长期稳定性, 这对现代地下工程具有借鉴和工程类比意义。     

沂沭断裂带内部王氏组的沉积环境及构造意义

本文将晚白垩世王氏组的沉积相划分为五类:湖盆陡岸浊积扇相、洪积扇沉积相、滨—浅湖前缘斜坡相、次深湖相、湖湾相。并对其微相特征进行了详细研究。王氏组沉积特征所反映的沂沭断裂带之活动特点是:先为徐缓的脉动,而后是陡然激烈的断陷,故造成了补偿性沉积与超补偿性沉积的叠置。王氏组砂岩平均化学成分表明:马站盆地具弧后盆地性质。