Distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in Yellow Sea sediments

To investigate the distribution,abundance,and species composition of dinoflagellate cysts in the Yellow Sea,surface sediment samples were collected at 37 sites,including the Korean dump site.Twenty-one dinoflagellate cyst taxa were identified,with the assemblages dominated mainly by Spiniferites bulloideus,Operculodinium centrocarpum,and cyst of Alexandrium catenella/tamarense type.A high frequency of O.centrocarpum in the Yellow Sea was observed for the first time,and it is likely that this can be attributed to the dynamics of the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass and the Changjiang(Yangtze) River runoff.Total cyst concentrations ranged from 23 to 48 442 cysts/g dry weight,and high cyst concentrations were recorded adjacent to the dumping site.This result suggests that anthropogenic activities such as ocean dumping stimulate the growth of dinoflagellates in the Yellow Sea,which in turn leads to high levels of dinoflagellate cyst production.     

Composition and temperatures of the topside ionosphere over Arecibo

Results of analysis of about 150 autocorrelation functions are presented for the period from about 2300 hr on 5 October to about 1200 hr on 7 October 1967. A large percentage concentration of helium ions are observed. It reaches a value as high as 50 per cent with a maximum at around 800 km. Downward heat fluxes deduced from the temperature variations yield a value of about 2–2.5 × 10⁹ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 1200–1600 hr and a value of about 1.5 × 10⁸ eV cm^?2 sec^?1 during the period 0100–0400 hr at night. These agree well with other measurements. The O⁺ ions are found not to be in diffusive equilibrium, and from the O⁺ fluxes and the electron density profiles, the O⁺ drift velocity has been estimated. It is found that the speed can be as high as 1–5 × 10³ cm sec^?1 even at altitudes as high as 700 km.     

Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula

Core A9-EB2 from the eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, consists of pelagic (diatom ooze-clay couplets and bioturbated diatom ooze) and hemipelagic (bioturbated mud) sediments interbedded with turbidites (homogeneous mud and silt–clay couplets). The cyclic and laminated nature of these pelagic sediments represents alternation between the deposition of diatom-rich biogenic sediments and of terrigenous sediments. Sediment properties and geochemical data explain the contrasting lamination, with light layers being finer-grained and relatively rich in total organic carbon and biogenic silica content. Also, the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) variations highlight distinct features: high MS values coincide with clastic-rich sections and low MS values correspond to biogenic sections. The chronology developed for core A9-EB2 accounts for anomalous ages associated with turbidites and shows a linear sedimentation rate of approximately 87 cm/10³ yr, which is supported by an accumulation rate of 80 cm/10³ yr calculated from ²¹⁰Pb activity. The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.     

Impacts of Seasonal Pumping on Stream‐Aquifer Interactions in Miryang,Korea

Large agricultural fields in South Korea are located mostly on alluvial plains, where a significant amount of groundwater is used for heating of water‐curtain insulated greenhouses. Such greenhouses are commonly used for crop cultivation during the winter dry season from November to March. After use the groundwater is discharged directly into streams, causing groundwater depletion. A hydrogeological study was carried out in a typical agricultural area of this type, located on an alluvial aquifer near the Nakdong River. Groundwater levels, chemical characteristics, and temperatures from 68 observation wells were analyzed to determine the impacts of seasonal groundwater pumping on the groundwater system and stream‐aquifer interactions. Our results show that the groundwater system has not yet reached a state of dynamic equilibrium. Decades of excessive seasonal pumping have caused a gradual decline of groundwater levels, leading to groundwater depletion, especially in areas further from the river. Seasonal pumping has also significantly affected groundwater quality in the aquifer near the river. Groundwater temperature is decreasing (in this case a disadvantage), and saline groundwater is being diluted by induced recharge. The results of this study provide a basic outline for effective integrated water management that is widely applicable in South Korea.     

Aquifer Characterization Using Fiber Bragg Grating Multi-Level Monitoring System

Groundwater responses measured from multiple wells at different depths are essential for delineating the aquifer heterogeneity using hydraulic tomography (HT). In general, conducting HT requires many wells because traditional well monitoring is usually partially open at a specific depth interval or is fully penetrating. Accordingly, conducting an HT survey is typically costly and time-consuming. To tackle these issues, a new multi-level monitoring system (MLMS) for the HT survey was developed using the fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique. This FBG MLMS could collect the depth-discrete groundwater observations from a fully penetrated 2-inch well. Three field campaigns were conducted to validate the capability of the FBG MLMS for HT surveys. The results show that the accuracy and stability of this MLMS are reliable and that FBG MLMS is beneficial for conducting an HT survey. Specifically, compared to the traditional monitoring well in an injection event, this FBG MLMS can concurrently cause an increase in the number of cross-hole tests several times and collect many more head observations than the standard methods, resulting in the observed flow fields efficiently reaching ergodic conditions and effectively improving the accuracy of the estimated hydraulic heterogeneity. Therefore, the FBG MLMS could be an alternative MLMS for efficiently and economically conducting an HT survey.     

On a novel approach to forecast sparse rare events: applications to Parkfield earthquake prediction

Natural Hazards - Rare events are plentiful in nature and most of them have devastating consequences on human lives and property. Modeling such events is intrinsically challenging due to their very...     

Potential impacts of northeastern Eurasian snow cover on generation of dust storms in northwestern China during spring

The effects of the northeastern Eurasian snow cover on the frequency of spring dust storms in northwestern China have been examined for the period 1979–2007. Averaged over all 43 stations in northwestern China, a statistically significant relationship has been found between dust-storm frequency (DSF) and Eurasian snow-water equivalent (SWE) during spring: mean DSF of 7.4 and 3.3 days for years of high- and low SWE, respectively. Further analyses reveal that positive SWE anomalies enhance the meridional gradients of the lower tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights, thereby strengthening westerly jets and zonal wind shear over northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China, the regions of major dust sources. The anomalous atmospheric circulation corresponding to the Eurasian SWE anomalies either reinforces or weakens atmospheric baroclinicity and cyclogenesis, according to the sign of the anomaly, to affect the spring DSF. This study suggests that Eurasian SWE anomalies can be an influential factor of spring DSF in northwestern China and western Inner Mongolia of China.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.