对流崩溃过程的一个非线性理论

本文利用A.A.德罗特尼村所提出的方法解出了描写积云发展的非线性微分方程组来研究一种形成、发展很快,而崩溃又很突然的积云发展过程。计算据果表明:积云的崩溃过程是从云顶开始向下崩溃的;非线性项的作用和大气层结的不稳定,在对流运动崩溃过程中起着很重要的作用;下沉运动是使积云崩溃的极重要的因素。     

The Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia

Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account, 72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26 percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total. Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001     

Spatial and seasonal variations in the water quality of Jinhae Bay,Korea

The chemical and biological characteristics of surface waters in Jinhae Bay were investigated over four seasons to understand water quality in light of the growing industrialisation occurring within this area. Jinhae Bay includes four smaller bays: Masan; Hangam; Jindong; and Gohyun. The water quality in Jinhae Bay varied spatially and seasonally. The water quality of both Hangam Bay and Masan Bay was highly degraded, demonstrating high concentrations of ammonia, nitrate, chlorophyll a and particulate organic carbon. Contamination from sewage was the dominant cause of the water quality deterioration in these bays. Conversely, the water quality in Jindong Bay and Gohyun Bay was not as severely affected as that of the above two bays. Water quality in Jinhae Bay was particularly poor in summer when nutrient loading was highest due to the run-off associated with high precipitation. Principal component analysis indicated that nitrogen contamination was a major factor influencing the water quality of Jinhae Bay. The effective reduction in high-nitrogen discharges is essential to improve water quality in Jinghae Bay.     

Seasonal characteristics of the Tsushima Current in the Tsushima/Korea Strait obtained by a fine-resolution numerical model

The horizontal distribution of the Tsushima Current in the Tsushima/Korea Strait is assessed by a fine-resolution numerical experiment. The comparison of the model results with the observations along a section crossing the strait shows that the model represents relatively well, the general tendency of what was observed, such as the separation of the Tsushima Current into the western and eastern streams by the Tsushima Island. In summer, strong and relatively uniformly distributed surface currents enhance the formation of the wake downstream of the Tsushima Island. The axis of the countercurrent, embedded in the wake, is closer to the western stream. Anti-cyclonic eddies are shed near the downstream tip of the Tsushima Island and propagate along the boundary between the western stream and the wake. The exchange of water between the western stream and the wake takes place through the intermediation of these eddies. There is a net water supply from the western stream to the wake, which is then carried to the eastern stream by the countercurrent via the eastern coast of the Tsushima Island. In winter, currents, strongly barotropic, tend to have banded structures, especially in the region downstream of the western channel where isobaths converge in the downstream direction. The eddies found in this region in winter appear to be fundamentally different from those associated with the Tsushima Island wake. The necessary condition for barotropic instability is satisfied for the monthly mean currents in this region, suggesting that the currents are barotropically unstable in this region in winter.     

Multi‐scale system reliability analysis of lifeline networks under earthquake hazards

Recent earthquake events evidenced that damage of structural components in a lifeline network may cause prolonged disruption of lifeline services, which eventually results in significant socio‐economic losses in the affected area. Despite recent advances in network reliability analysis, the complexity of the problem and various uncertainties still make it a challenging task to evaluate the post‐hazard performance and connectivity of lifeline networks efficiently and accurately. In order to overcome such challenges and take advantage of merits of multi‐scale analysis, this paper develops a multi‐scale system reliability analysis method by integrating a network decomposition approach with the matrix‐based system reliability (MSR) method. In addition to facilitating system reliability analysis of large‐size networks, the multi‐scale approach enables optimizing the level of computational effort on subsystems; identifying the relative importance of components and subsystems at multiple scales; and providing a collaborative risk management framework. The MSR method is uniformly applied for system reliability analyses at both the lower‐scale (for link failure) and the higher‐scale (for system connectivity) to obtain the probability of general system events, various conditional probabilities, component importance measures, statistical correlation between subsystem failures and parameter sensitivities. The proposed multi‐scale analysis method is demonstrated by its application to a gas distribution network in Shelby County of Tennessee. A parametric study is performed to determine the number of segments during the lower‐scale MSR analysis of each pipeline based on the strength of the spatial correlation of seismic intensity. It is shown that the spatial correlation should be considered at both scales for accurate reliability evaluation. The proposed multi‐scale analysis approach provides an effective framework of risk assessment and decision support for lifeline networks under earthquake hazards. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Total organic carbon fluxes of the Red River system (Vietnam)

Riverine transport of organic carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the oceans plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The Red River is located in Southeast Asia where river discharge, sediment loads and fluxes of elements (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) associated with suspended solids have been dramatically altered over past decades as a result of reservoir impoundment and land use, population, and climate change. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations were measured monthly at four stations of the Red River system from January 2008 to December 2010. The results reveal that POC changed synchronically with total suspended solids (TSS) concentration and with the river discharge, whereas no clear trend was observed for DOC concentration. The mean value of total organic carbon (TOC = DOC + POC) flux in the delta of the Red River was 31.5 × 10¹³ ± 4.0 × 10¹³ MgC.yr^?1 (range 27.9–35.8 × 10¹³ MgC.yr^?1 which leads to a specific TOC flux of 2012 ± 255 kgC.km^?2.yr^?1 during this 2008–2010 period. About 80% of the TOC flux was transferred to the estuary during the rainy season as a consequence of the higher river water discharge. The high mean value of the POC:Chl‐a ratio (1585 ± 870 mgC.mgChl‐a^?1) and the moderate C:N ratio (7.3 ± 0.1) in the water column system suggest that organic carbon in the Red River system is mainly derived from erosion and soil leaching in the basin. The effect of two new dam impoundments in the Red River was also observable with lower TOC fluxes in 2010 compared with 2008. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonhomogeneous Poisson model for volcanic eruptions

A simple Poisson process is more specifically known as a homogeneous Poisson process since the rate was assumed independent of time t. The homogeneous Poisson model generally gives a good fit to many volcanoes for forecasting volcanic eruptions. If eruptions occur according to a homogeneous Poisson process, the repose times between consecutive eruptions are independent exponential variables with mean=1/. The exponential distribution is applicable when the eruptions occur at random and are not due to aging, etc. It is interesting to note that a general population of volcanoes can be related to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity factor(t). In this paper, specifically, we consider a more general Weibull distribution, WEI (, ), for volcanism. A Weibull process is appropriate for three types of volcanoes: increasing-eruption-rate (>1), decreasing-eruption-rate (<1), and constant-eruption-rate (=1). Statistical methods (parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, and prediction intervals) are provided to analyze the following five volcanoes: Also, Etna, Kilauea, St. Helens, and Yake-Dake. We conclude that the generalized model can be considered a goodness-of-fit test for a simple exponential model (a homogeneous Poisson model), and is preferable for practical use for some nonhomogeneous Poisson volcanoes with monotonic eruptive rates.     

Water quality assessment at Jinhae Bay and Gwangyang Bay,South Korea

A new water quality index for evaluating the water quality of Jinhae Bay and Gwangyang Bay was developed. Four water quality parameters were selected as water quality indicators for the water quality index: dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and dissolved oxygen (DO). Reference levels of DIN, DIP, and Chl-a were determined as 6.22 μmol L^?1, 0.38 μmol L^?1, and 2.32 μmol L^?1, respectively, on the basis of a long-term dataset that was collected monthly in the Korea Strait over a period of seven years (2006–2012). The water quality index established for Jinhae Bay and Gwangyang Bay is (bottom DO grade × 0.33) + (surface Chl-a grade × 0.33) + (surface DIN grade × 0.17) + (surface DIP grade × 0.17). On the basis of a three-year observation, the water quality of Jinhae Bay was classified as “good” in winter and spring, “poor” in summer, and “fair” in autumn and exhibited large spatial variation, with the lowest-quality water observed in Masan Bay. The water quality of Gwangyang Bay was classified as “good” in winter, “fair” in spring, “poor” in summer, and “fair” in autumn. Unlike Jinhae Bay, the water quality of Gwangyang Bay exhibited minimal spatial variation. In both bays, water quality among the four seasons was worse during summer. It is essential that a survey for water quality evaluation be conducted during summer.     

Issues in sediment toxicity and ecological risk assessment

This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The issues addressed included how toxicity is defined and perceived, how it is measured, and how it should be used within the context of ERA to support management decisions. The following conclusions were reached regarding scientific considerations of these issues. Toxicity is a measure of hazard and not a risk per se. Thus, toxicity testing is a means but not the end to understand risks of sediments. Toxicity testing cannot presently be replaced by chemical analyses to define hazard. Toxicity test organisms need to be appropriate to the problem being addressed, and the results put into context relative to both reference and baseline comparisons to understand hazard. Use of toxicity tests in sediment ERAs requires appropriate endpoints and risk hypotheses, considering ecological not just statistical significance, and recognizing that hazard does not equate to risk. Toxicity should be linked to population and community response to support decision-making, assessing possible genotypic adaptations that can influence risk estimates, and addressing uncertainty. Additionally, several key scientific issues were identified to improve future sediment ERAs, including the need to improve basic understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, recognition of variability in the assessment process, and an improved focus and ability to assess risks to populations and communities.     

Sinking Particle Flux in the Subtropical Oligotrophic Northwestern Pacific from a Short-term Sediment Trap Experiment

Time-series sediment traps were deployed in the subtropical oligotrophic northwestern Pacific (SONP) at three depths from August to September 2015 to better understand vertical flux of sinking particles. Sinking particles were collected at 5-day intervals over the sediment trap deployment period. The average total mass flux at water depths of 400 m, 690 m, and 1,710 m was 9.1, 4.4, and 4.1 mg m^-2day^-1, respectively. CaCO₃ materials constituted 50 to 70% of sinking particles while in comparison particulate organic carbon (POC) constituted up to 20%. A synchronous variation of total mass flux was observed at the three depths, indicating that calcite-dominated particles sank from 400 to 1,710 m within a 5-day period. POC flux at these water depths was 2.4, 0.38, and 0.31 mg m^-2day^-1, respectively. Our results indicate low transfer efficiencies of 16% from 400 to 690 m and 13% for the 400 to 1,710 m depth range. The estimated transfer efficiencies were significantly lower than those observed at the K2 station in the northwest Pacific subarctic gyre, presumably because of a prevalence of pico-cyanobacteria in the SONP. Because cyanobacteria have a semi-permeable proteinaceous shell, they are more readily remineralized by bacteria than are siliceous phytoplankton in the northwest Pacific subarctic gyre. Continued surface water warming and expansion of the SONP will likely have a profound impact on ocean acidification in the northwest Pacific, possibly affecting the transfer efficiency of sinking POC to the deep-sea.