Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how “similar” zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (∣r∣ = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single “warm-and-low-productivity” vs. “cool-and-high-productivity” component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative (“cool” and “productive”) or near zero except positive in the El Niño years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive (“warm” and “low productivity”) from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply.     

The morphodynamic modelling of tidal sand waves on the shoreface

An artificial sand wave on the Dutch shoreface of the North Sea has been studied in conditions with relatively strong tidal currents in the range of 0.5 to 1 m/s and sediments in the medium sand size range of 0.2 to 0.5 mm. The sand wave is perpendicular to the tidal current and has a maximum height and length of the order of 5 m and 1 km, respectively. The sand wave is dynamically active and shows migration rates of the order of a few metres per year. A numerical morphodynamic model (DELFT3D model) has been used to simulate the morphological behaviour of the sand wave in the North Sea. This model approach is based on the numerical solution of the three-dimensional shallow water equations in combination with a surface wave propagation model (wind waves) and the advection–diffusion equation for the sediment particles with online bed updating after each time step. The model results show that the sand wave grows in the case of dominant bed-load transport (weak tidal currents; relatively coarse sediment; small roughness height; low waves) and that the sand wave decays in the case of dominant suspended transport (strong currents, relatively fine sediment, large roughness height; storm waves).     

A note on the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on small amplitude water-wave propagation

In this note we investigated the effects of a thin visco-elastic mud layer on wave propagation. Within the framework of linear water-wave theory, analytical solutions are obtained for damping rate, dispersion relation between wave frequency and wave number, and velocity components in the water column and mud layer. The wave attenuation rate reaches a maximum value when the mud layer thickness is about the same as the mud boundary layer thickness. Heavier mud has a weaker effect on the wave damping. However, the wave attenuation rate does not always decrease as the elastic shear modulus increases. In the range of small values for elastic shear modulus, the wave attenuation can be amplified quite significantly. The current solutions are compared with experimental data with different wave conditions and mud properties. In general, good agreements are observed.     

A straightforward approach for using single time domain simulations to assess characteristic extreme responses

Short-term wave design approach of marine structures, using nonlinear time domain simulations, is a design procedure that is recognized by various modern standard codes. One of the most challenging points of this approach is the evaluation of the characteristic extreme values for response parameters used in the design check equations. The most straightforward and recommended way to evaluate a response characteristic value is by fitting an extreme value probability distribution to the N-sample of extreme values extracted from N independent time domain simulations with duration equal to the short-term period indicated by the code, which is usually taken as 3 h. However, this procedure would not be practical for some types of marine structures, such as risers and mooring lines, under numerous design load cases and demanding huge finite element models. A more feasible approach would be to assess the response extreme value distribution using only a single short-term time domain simulation with duration shorter than 3 h. But reduced time simulations always introduce some additional statistical uncertainty into the extreme values estimates. This paper discusses a workable way of properly taking into account the statistical uncertainty associated with the simulation length in the assessment of a characteristic short-term extreme response value based on a single time series.     

Analysis of volcanogenic perturbations of the subarctic ozonosphere on the basis of space monitoring data

The response of the total ozone (TO) at subarctic latitudes to volcanic eruptions, products of which were injected into the stratosphere, is analyzed. It is established that the behavior of the series of average annual TO values according to the TOMS, SCIAMACHY, and GOME space equipment data averaged for 55°–65° N latitudes agrees with the activity of explosive volcanic eruptions. The series of the TO satellite monitoring instrumental data are extended by 200 years into the past using a reconstruction from the dendro-chronologic data. An analysis of the series of TO reconstructed values indicates that volcanogenic perturbations of the subarctic ozonosphere initiate long-term negative TO deviations. In this case, the TO negative deviation depth depends on the frequency of the ozonosphere volcanogenic perturbations and the phase of quasiperiodic oscillation cycles rather than on the strength of a single volcanic explosion.     

Ionospheric response to submarine earthquake of March 11, 2011, in Japan according to GPS observations

Using available Russian and international Global Positioning System (GPS) network data, we studied the ionospheric response to the M = 8.9 submarine earthquake of March 11, 2011, on the northeastern coast of Honshu Island, Japan, both near and far (about 2000 km away) from the epicenter. In the region over the epicenter, 8.7 min after the event, we detected a characteristic signal of the total electron content (TEC) variations consisting of compression and rarefaction phases and a linear transition zone in between, i.e., in the form of an N-type wave with a steep leading front indicating a rapid uplift of the water surface and, correspondingly, the bottom of the ocean. The shape of the signal can be used for early tsunami warning; i.e., it may indicate the tsunamigenic character of a submarine earthquake. We monitored the subsequent evolution of the ionospheric response as far as 2000 km from the epicenter. It was shown that, besides the wellknown ionospheric N-type wave response to the earthquake, there is also a response in the form of an inverted N-wave, both nearby and far from the epicenter. We detected two more types of ionospheric responses far from the epicenter: a solitary-like wave and an internal gravity wave (IGW). The detected signals have been interpreted.     

Short-term and interannual variability of redox-sensitive chemical parameters in hypoxic/anoxic bottom waters of the Chesapeake Bay

A combination of CTD casts, discrete bottle sampling and in situ voltammetric microelectrode profiling was used to examine changing redox conditions in the water column at a single station south of the Bay Bridge in the upper Chesapeake Bay in late July/early August, 2002–2005. Short-term (2–4 h) fluctuations in the oxic/suboxic/anoxic interface were documented using in situ voltammetric solid-state electrodes. Profiles of dissolved oxygen and sulfide revealed tidally-driven vertical fluctuations of several meters in the depth and thickness of the suboxic zone. Bottom water concentrations of sulfide, Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺ also varied over the tidal cycle by approximately an order of magnitude. These data indicate that redox species concentrations at this site varied more due to physical processes than biogeochemical processes. Based on analysis of ADCP data, tidal currents at this station were strongly polarized, with the principal axis of tidal currents aligned with the mainstem channel. Together with the chemical data, the ADCP analysis suggests tidal flushing of anoxic bottom waters with suboxic water from north of the site. The present study is thus unique because while most previous studies have focused on processes across relatively stable redox interfaces, our data clearly demonstrate the influence of rapidly changing physical mixing processes on water column redox chemistry.Also noted during the study were interannual differences in maximum bottom water concentrations of sulfide, Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺. In 2003, for example, heavy spring rains resulted in severe hypoxia/anoxia in June and early July. While reported storm-induced mixing in late July/early August 2003 partially alleviated the low-oxygen conditions, bottom water concentrations of sulfide, Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺ were still much higher than in the previous year. The latter implies that the response time of the microbial community inhabiting the suboxic/anoxic bottom waters to changing redox conditions is slow compared to the time scale of episodic mixing events. Bottom water concentrations of the redox-sensitive chemical species should thus be useful as a tracer to infer prior hypoxic/anoxic conditions not apparent from ambient oxygen levels at the time of sampling.     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

Habitat selection and quality for multiple cohorts of young-of-the-year bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix): Comparisons between estuarine and ocean beaches in southern New Jersey

In this study, seasonal and annual variability in the use of estuarine and ocean beaches by young-of-the-year bluefish, Pomatomus saltatrix, was evaluated by indices of abundance in coastal areas of southern New Jersey (1998–2000). Biological and physical factors measured at specific sites were correlated with bluefish abundance to determine the mechanisms underlying habitat selection. In addition, integrative and discrete indicators of bluefish growth were used to examine spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat quality and its effect on habitat selection by multiple cohorts of bluefish. Intra-annual recruitment to coastal areas of southern New Jersey was episodic, and resulted from the ingress of spring-spawned bluefish (hatch-date April) to estuarine beaches in late May to early June, followed by the recruitment of summer-spawned fish (hatch-date early July) to ocean beaches from July to October. Bluefish utilized estuarine and ocean beaches in a facultative manner that was responsive to dynamics in prey composition and temperature conditions. The recruitment and residency of bluefish in the estuary (1998–1999) and ocean beaches (1998), for example, was coincidental with the presence of the Atlantic silverside Menidia menidia and bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, the principal prey species for bluefish occupying these respective habitat-types. Bluefish abundance in the estuary (2000) and ocean beaches (1999–2000) was also correlated with water temperature, with the greatest catches of juveniles coinciding with their optimal growth temperature (24 °C). Bluefish growth, estimated as the slope of age–length relationships and daily specific growth rates, equaled 1.27–2.63 mm fork length (FL) d⁻¹ and 3.8–8.7% body length increase d⁻¹, respectively. The growth of sagittal otoliths was also used as a proxy for changes in bluefish size during and shortly before their time of capture. Accordingly, otolith growth rates of summer-spawned bluefish were greater at ocean beaches relative to the estuary and were explained by the more suitable temperature conditions found at ocean beaches during the mid- to late summer. Notwithstanding the fast growth of oceanic summer-spawned bluefish, individuals spawned in the spring were still larger in absolute body size at the end of the summer growing season (240 and 50–200 mm FL for spring- and summer-spawned bluefish, respectively). The size discrepancy between spring- and summer-spawned bluefish at the onset of autumn migrations and during overwintering periods may account for the differential recruitment success of the respective cohorts.