A procedure to estimate the probability distribution of recurrence times in the west-northwestern Hellenic arc

The determination of the probability distribution of recurrence times is the most important problem in the calculation of long-term conditional probabilities for the recurrence of large and great earthquakes.The principle of maximum entropy in conjunction with a goodness-of-fit test (chi-square or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) may be employed to obtain estimates of these densities using recurrence data for some seismic regions.Four different distributions are characterized by the property of maximum entropy, as possible laws for recurrence times of the largest earthquakes: uniform, exponential, Gaussian and log-normal. To discriminate among these different probability distributions we use the probability theory and the chi-square test to check the goodness-of-fit to the distribution of recurrence time of shocks of magnitude 6.5 and largest occurred in the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc from 1791 to 1983.It is found that the recurrence times data for the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc cannot be represented by the uniform and the Gaussian probability densities. The recurrence times data for the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc can be described accurately by the exponential and log-normal probability densities, which were predicted from the principle of maximum entropy. In other words, the principle of maximum entropy does not necessarily lead to a unique solution. In turn, the mathematical properties of these distributions could be used to derive different physical properties of the earthquake process in the west-northwestern zone of the Hellenic arc.     

Probabilistic macroseismic hazard assessment for Nicaragua (preliminary results)

A probabilistic macroseismic hazard assessment has been done for Nicaragua. For this, the most complete catalogue for Central America, compiled by NORSAR in Norway has been used. In this catalogue, empirical intensity attenuation relations were found. Using these empirical relations, magnitudes were changed to epicentral intensities expected in sites where no intensities had been reported. The calculated intensities from a polygon surrounding Nicaragua were used to assess the macroseismic hazard in the region. For the whole polygon, the cumulative intensity frequency was calculated resulting in a b-value of 0.60 for an intensity interval of V–IX. The time completeness was also studied indicating that, for strong events causing higher intensities (I ₀ VII), the catalogue is complete for events that have been recorded since 1840. The whole polygon was cut into independent seismotectonic regions where the statistical procedure (intensity frequency and time completeness) was done.     

A multiresolution strategy for solving landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method

We present an approach for the simulation of landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method of the second generation. In this work, the multiphase nature (granular phase and water) of the phenomenon is considered in a staggered fashion using a single, indeformable Finite Element mesh. A fractional step and a monolithic strategy are used for the water flow and granular phase, respectively. In this way, the maximum accuracy with minimal computational times is reached. The method is completed by adding the interaction terms due to drag and pressure forces, together with a moving mesh strategy to reduce the size of the computational domain.     

Due casi di grave inquinamento di acque sotterranee

Riassunto Ricercate le cause e le modalità secondo le quali si è verificato un vasto inquinamento da cromati alcalini nella falda acquifera della zona di Spinetta Marengo (Alessandria), l'A., mediante il rilevamento chimico-colorimetrico della diffusione dell'inquinamento, esaminate le caratteristiche della falda, introduce un nuovo metodo per determinare analiticamente e graficamente le variazioni della concentrazione. — A proposito di altro inquinamento da arseniato sodico verificatosi in un pozzo al Muggiano (La Spezia) vengono esaminate le caratteristiche in rapporto alla natura geologica del terreno.

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Summary The A. had researched the cause and modality of the large defilement of alkalines chromates in the ground-water-flow of the zone of Spinetta Marengo (Alessandria). By means of chemical and colourimetrical methods, he examined the characteristics of the diffusion of the defilement and present a new method to determine analytically and graphically the variation of the concentration in every point of the zone. — After, the A. examined an other defilement of sodium-arseniate in a well of Muggiano (La Spezia) in reference to the geological feature of the ground.

     

High-resolution seismic imaging of gas accumulations and seepage in the sediments of the Ria de Aveiro barrier lagoon (Portugal)

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and an important energy source. The global significance and impact in coastal zones of methane gas accumulation and seepage in sediments from coastal lagoon environments are still largely unknown. This paper presents results from four high-resolution seismic surveys carried out in the Ria de Aveiro barrier lagoon (Portugal) in 1999, 2002 and 2003. These comprise three chirp surveys (RIAV99, RIAV02, RIAV02A) and one boomer survey (RIAV03). Evidence of extensive gas accumulation and seepage in tidal channel sediments from the Ria de Aveiro barrier lagoon is presented here for the first time. This evidence includes: acoustic turbidity, enhanced reflections, acoustic blanking, domes, and acoustic plumes in the water column (flares). The stratigraphy and structural framework control the distribution and extent of gas accumulations and seepage in the study area. In these shallow systems, however, tidal altitude variations have a significant impact on gas detection using acoustic methods, by changing the raw amplitude of the enhanced seismic reflections, acoustic turbidity, and acoustic blanking in gas-prone areas. Direct evidence of gas escape from drill holes in the surrounding area has shown that the gas present in the Ria de Aveiro consists of biogenic methane. Most of the gas in the study area was probably generated mainly in Holocene lagoon sediments. Evidence of faults affecting the Mesozoic limestones and clays underlying some of the shallow gas occurrences, and the presence of high-amplitude reflections in these deeper units raise the possibility that some of this gas could have been generated in deeper sedimentary layers, and then migrated upward through the fractured Mesozoic strata.     

Internal tidal bore warm fronts and settlement of invertebrates in central Chile

We studied the occurrence of large high frequency temperature fluctuations and their potential association with settlement of intertidal invertebrates during the spring/summer period 1999/2000 at Las Cruces, on the coast of central Chile. Our results showed the existence of internal tidal bores, characterized by sharp drops in water temperature at the surface and near the bottom, and subsequent temperature increases, which occurred with a semidiurnal periodicity. Measured currents support the hypothesis of alternating onshore and offshore movement of warm-water fronts. The frequency of the events varied through the summer and their amplitude seems to be modulated by onshore winds. The strongest events were observed when strong onshore winds occurred in late afternoon hours and the entire water column showed a semidiurnal temperature signal. Highest values of chlorophyll concentration in the intertidal zone and daily settlement of bivalves, gastropods and crustaceans were observed at times when conditions were favorable for occurrence of internal tidal bores. Results suggest that internal tidal bore warm fronts could play an important role in the transport of neustonic larval invertebrates and the delivery of phytoplankton to at least some intertidal sites along the coast of Chile.     

Modeling the influence of hydroperiod and vegetation on the cross-sectional formation of tidal channels

The evolution of the cross section of a salt-marsh channel is explored using a numerical model. Deposition on the marsh platform and erosion and deposition in the channel affect the tidal prism flowing through the cross section, such that the model captures the evolution of the stage–discharge relationship as the channel and marsh platform evolve. The model also captures the growth of salt-marsh vegetation on the marsh platform, and how this vegetation affects flow resistance and the rate of sedimentation. The model is utilized to study the influence of hydroperiod and vegetation encroachment on channel cross section. Numerical results show that a reduction in hydroperiod due to the emergence of the marsh platform causes an infilling of the channel. Vegetation encroachment on the marsh surface produces an increase in flow resistance and accretion due to organic and mineral sedimentation, with important consequences for the shape of the channel cross section. Finally, modeling results indicate that in microtidal marshes with vegetation dominated by Spartina alterniflora, the width-to-depth ratio of the channels decreases when the tidal flats evolve in salt marshes, whereas the cross-sectional area remains proportional to the tidal peak discharge throughout channel evolution.     

Spatial and vertical distributions of elements in sediments of the Colorado River delta and Upper Gulf of California

The abundance of major components (Fe, Ca, K, and organic carbon) and trace elements was analyzed in surface sediments and core samples from the Colorado River delta (CRD) and the Upper Gulf of California (UGC) using instrumental neutron activation analysis.The spatial distribution patterns of the elements studied are consistent with the model of sedimentary dynamics proposed for this area [Mar. Geol. 158 (1999) 125]: intense tidal resuspension of sediments in the delta with subsequent transport of suspended particulate matter in a southerly direction, followed by sedimentation of fine-grained material in a depocenter near the southwestern margin of the UGC. Concentrations of most of the elements are higher in the surface sediments of this depocenter. The gradual mixing of terrigenous and marine biogenic materials, normally expected for the estuarine sediments, was not detected in the CRD–UGC system because of homogenization of the sediments by tides and wind.Vertical profiles of element contents in samples of the sediment core collected in the depocenter area revealed (i) almost no anthropogenic contamination of the area by environmentally important trace elements such as Cr, Co, Sb, and As; (ii) a twofold decrease of Fe, Sc, Cr, and Co in upper core sediments; and (iii) the enrichment of the sediments at 60–62 cm depth in the core, in calcium carbonate, Ca, Sr, and the Eu_n/Sm_n shale-normalized ratio along with a depletion in this layer of Fe, Sc, Cr, Co, light rare-earth elements (REEs), and some other elements of terrigenous origin, presumably caused by the dilution of fluvial terrigenous material by biogenic carbonates, which were probably introduced at this level in the sediments by the action of a strong episodic winter storm, followed by the advective transport of shell fragments from the coastal clam banks or as a result of strong planktonic bloom.     

Physical forcing of onshore transport of crab megalopae in the northern Portuguese upwelling system

Wind-driven circulation is a mechanism that may be involved in the shoreward transport of invertebrate larvae. This study investigated the temporal variability of the supply of crab megalopae to an estuary located in the northwest coast of Portugal, which is affected by seasonal upwelling, and related variations in supply to several upwelling indices. Megalopae of the European common shore crab Carcinus maenas (L.). were collected daily, using artificial settlement substrates, during a 3-month period, from March 15 to June 15, 2000. Two settlement episodes were detected, which were consistent with the variation in abundance and size of juvenile crabs. Variations in subtidal sea level and sea surface temperature anomaly were correlated with the strength of along-shore wind stress and consistent with upwelling theory. Contingency analyses showed positive significant associations between increasing intensity of southerly winds and megalopal supply, for time lags of 0–6 d, indicating that shoreward transport occurred during relaxation or reversal of upwelling favourable winds. Associations between megalopal supply and tidal range or the duration of nocturnal flood were not detected. Compared to other studies of the supply of crab megalopae to coastal habitats that used a similar methodology, very low numbers of megalopae were collected during this study. The paucity of C. maenas megalopae in the Ria de Aveiro is in agreement with the low densities of this larval stage in the plankton, and indicates that maintenance of the population is achieved despite a low supply of megalopae.