Climate change and plague history in Europe

Previous research that reported the linkage between climate change and plague activity primarily refers to the immediate effect of short-term climatic variation. Yet, decades of discussion about the climate-plague association cannot determine the precise role of climate in shaping plague dynamics. One reason for this discrepancy originates from the narrow selection of spatio-temporal settings for comprehensive analysis of the correlation, leading to a limited consideration of the complexity of possible dynamics. By analyzing a 414-year long record of plague outbreak in pre-industrial Europe and the corresponding climatic data in multi-scale, we find little evidence to support climate-plague correlation in (1) both climatic variations and large-scale climatic phenomena, (2) both country scale and continental scale, (3) annual to inter-annual scale, and (4) both linear and non-linear analytic approaches. The null-result should not be viewed as a general rejection of other recent findings related to climate-plague association; nevertheless, it suggests that a wider consideration of scales, sensitivity checks and consideration of contexts should be included in explaining and predicting plague transmission under contemporary global climate conditions.     

Investigation of the dynamic behaviour of a storage tank with different foundation types focusing on the soil‐foundation‐structure interactions using centrifuge model tests

This paper proposes a dynamic centrifuge model test method for the accurate simulation of the behaviours of a liquid storage tank with different types of foundations during earthquakes. The method can be used to determine the actual stress conditions of a prototype storage‐tank structure. It was used in the present study to investigate the soil‐foundation‐structure interactions of a simplified storage tank under two different earthquake motions, which were simulated using a shaking table installed in a centrifuge basket. Three different types of foundations were considered, namely, a shallow foundation, a slab on the surface of the ground connected to piles and a slab with disconnected piles. The test results were organised to compare the ground surface and foundation motions, the slab of foundation and top of structure motions and the horizontal and vertical motions of the slab, respectively. These were used to establish the complex dynamic behaviours of tank models with different foundations. The effects of soil–foundation–structure interaction with three foundation conditions and two different earthquake motions are focused and some important factors, that should be considered for future designs are also discussed in this research. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Concentrated, ‘pulsed’ axial glacier flow: structural glaciological evidence from Kvíárjökull in SE Iceland

A detailed structural glaciological study carried out on Kvíárjökull in SE Iceland reveals that recent flow within this maritime glacier is concentrated within a narrow corridor located along its central axis. This active corridor is responsible for feeding ice from the accumulation zone on the south‐eastern side of Öræfajökull to the lower reaches of the glacier and resulted in a c. 200 m advance during the winter of 2013–2014 and the formation of a push‐moraine. The corridor comprises a series of lobes linked by a laterally continuous zone of highly fractured ice characterised by prominent flow‐parallel crevasses, separated by shear zones. The lobes form highly crevassed topographic highs on the glacier surface and occur immediately down‐ice of marked constrictions caused by prominent bedrock outcrops located on the northern side of the glacier. Close to the frontal margin of Kvíárjökull, the southern side of the glacier is relatively smooth and pock‐marked by a number of large moulins. The boundary between this slow moving ice and the active corridor is marked by a number of ice flow‐parallel strike‐slip faults and a prominent dextral shear zone which resulted in the clockwise rotation and dissection of an ice‐cored esker exposed on the glacier surface. It is suggested that this concentrated style of glacier flow identified within Kvíárjökull has affinities with the individual flow units which operate within pulsing or surging glaciers. © 2017 The Authors Earth Surface Processes and Landforms © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity Survey Pre‐modeling Tool

Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet‐based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.     

Degradation of crude oil in a contaminated tidal flat area and the resilience of bacterial community

Crude oil spills, Hebei Spirit in South Korea, is considered as one of the worst environmental disasters of the region. Our understanding on activation of oil-degrading bacteria and resilience of microbial community in oil contaminated sites are limited due to scarcity of such event. In the present study, tidal flat sediment contaminated by the oil spill were investigated for duration of 13 months to identify temporal change in microbial community and functional genes responsible for PAH-degradation. The results showed predominance of previously known oil-degrading genera, such as Cycloclasticus, Alcanivorax, and Thalassolituus, displaying significant increase within first four months of the accident. The disturbance caused by the oil spill altered the microbial community and its functional structures, but they were almost restored to the original state after 13 months. Present study demonstrated high detoxification capacity of indigenous bacterial populations in the tidal flat sediments and its resilience of microbial community.     

Permian felsic magmatism in the Neoproterozoic Nagar Parkar Igneous Complex of the Malani Igneous Suite: Evidence from zircon U–Pb age

We report Permian (ca. 272 Ma ±5.4 Ma) felsic dykes that intrude into the Neoproterozoic (ca. 750 Ma) magmatic suite of the Nagar Parkar Igneous Complex (NPIC), the western extension of the Malani Igneous Suite (MIS). The NPIC consists of Neoproterozoic basement amphibolites and granites (riebeckite–aegirine gray granites and the biotite–hornblende pink granites), all of which are intruded by several generations of mafic and felsic dykes. Granitic magmatism occurred in the Late Neoproterozoic (ca. 750 Ma) due to the subduction‐, followed by the rift‐related tectonic regime during the breakup of the Rodinia supercontinent. U–Th–Pb zircon and monazite CHIME age data of 700–800 Ma from the earlier generation porphyritic felsic dykes suggest the dyke intrusion was coeval or soon after the emplacement of the host granites. Our findings of Permian age orthophyric felsic dykes provide new insights for the prevalence of active tectonics in the MIS during late Paleozoic. Textural features and geochemistry also make the orthophyric dykes distinct from the early‐formed porphyritic dykes and the host granites. Our newly obtained age data combined with geochemistry, suggest the existence of magmatism along the western margin of India (peri‐Gondwana margin) during Permian. Like elsewhere in the region, the Permian magmatism in the NPIC could be associated with the rifting of the Cimmerian micro‐continents from the Gondwana.     

Scattering and reflection of SH waves around a slope on an elastic wedged space

The scattering and reflection of SH waves by a slope on an elastic wedged space is investigated. A series solution is obtained by using the wave function expansion method. The slope on a wedged space is divided into two subregions by an artificial, auxiliary circular arc. The wave fields with unknown complex coefficients within each sub-region are derived. Applying Graf addition theorem, the scattered waves in the sub-regions are expressed in a global coordinate system. Fourier transform is adopted to derive a consistent form of standing waves in the inner region using the orthogonality of the cosine functions. The boundary-valued problem is solved by stress and displacement continuity along the artificial, auxiliary arc to obtain the unknown complex coefficients. Parametric studies are next performed to investigate how the topography from the slope on the wedged space will affect the scattering and diffraction, and hence the amplification and de-amplification of the SH waves. Numerical results show that the surface motions on the slope of the wedged space is influenced greatly by the topography. Amplification of the surface motions near the slope vertex is significant. The corresponding phases along the wedged space surfaces are consistent with the direction that the SH waves are propagating.     

Diversity patterns and phylogenetic structure of vascular plants along elevational gradients in a mountain ecosystem,South Korea

Recently, a phylogenetic diversity and community structure analysis as complementary to species-centric approaches in biodiversity studies provides new insights into the processes of community assembly. In this study, we analyzed species and phylogenetic diversity and community structures for woody and herbaceous plants along two elevational transects on Mt. Baekhwa, South Korea. The species richness and phylogenetic diversity of woody plants showed monotonic declining patterns with increasing elevation along all transects, whereas herbaceous plants showed different patterns, such as no relationship and a reversed unimodal pattern, between the study transects. The main drivers of these patterns were climate and habitat variables for woody and herbaceous plants, respectively. In addition, the phylogenetic community structure primarily showed phylogenetic clustering regulated by deterministic processes, especially environmental filtering, such as climate or habitat factors, along the two transects, although herbaceous plants along a transect depicted phylogenetic randomness as a result of a neutral process. Our findings suggest that deterministic and neutral processes may simultaneously control the community structures along small-scale elevational gradients such as local transects, although the deterministic process may be the predominant type.     

Policy implications for community-managed forestry in Cambodia from experts’ assessments and case studies of community forestry practice

Over the last 40 years, it has been shown at the global level that sustainable forestry can be achieved through comprehensive forest management,with the decentralized institutional arrangements of community-managed forestry coordinated by effective policy implementation. However, there is still a shortage of evidence regarding whether communitybased forestry is well characterized by forest policies,assessing what action is most needed and how best to address the challenges faced by community-based forestry in halting deforestation and promoting rural livelihoods. The study analyzed experts' assessments of the characteristics and success of communitymanaged forestry in Cambodia and explored three case studies of community-managed forestry practice to identify priorities for addressing forest policy implementation inadequacies in halting deforestation and promoting rural livelihoods. There were two methods of data collection. Firstly, this study used a survey of 27 experts to analyze perceptions about how far forest policy supported community-managed forestry effectively, the major challenges faced by the national community-managed forestry program, and the community-managed forestry contribution to halting deforestation and reducing rural poverty.Secondly, data was collected by content analysis of three case studies to explore the knowledge and practical experience of local experts about community-managed forestry practice at local level.The study employed Kendall's Coefficient of Concordance to analyze the level of concordance of experts on related forest policies(n=15) considering community-managed forestry, the challenges faced by the national community-managed forestry program,and the actions required to enable communitymanaged forestry to support communities. Analysis revealed that experts were in moderate agreement,denoted by Kendall's W=0.152, on how well forest policies articulate and implement the characteristics of community-managed forestry. Ranking of the major challenges faced by the national communitymanaged forestry program yielded Kendall's W of0.104, indicating the confidence in the ranking among experts was fair. There was only low confidence in the ranking of the action needed, with Kendall's W of0.055. Content analysis of the three case studies examining local experts' opinions on the attributes of community-managed forestry concerning the access,local participation and protection of the sustainable forestry revealed that Attribute one ‘Local people have access to the forest land and forest resources', and Attribute three ‘Local people begin by protecting and restoring the forests', received high attention from local experts. Of lesser importance or agreement was attributing two: local participation in decision-making concerning the forest.     

Circular time-domain reflectometry system for monitoring bridge scour depth

Abstract

Sediment has a severe effect on bridge stability, and time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is a suitable method for assessing scour depth. This paper presents a fundamental study to demonstrate the suitability of a circular TDR system to enhance the resolution when monitoring scour depth with consideration of detailed local changes over a wide area around piers. A total of 32 electrodes are vertically installed on a cylinder pier around the circumference at ～7.36?mm intervals. Scour depth is investigated through small-scale laboratory experiments, where a measured waveform reflects the artificially constructed scour depth with high resolution (≈5?mm). Different scour types including circular, mushroom, elliptical, and irregular shapes are developed to verify the application of circular TDR, and shapes are predicted through the detailed local distribution. The influences of the reflected waveform according to water level change, temperature variation, and salinity effect are investigated as additional considerations, and the relative deviation of scour depth is analyzed. This study demonstrates that the proposed circular TDR system achieves better resolution than existing single TDR systems and may provide a better alternative technique for monitoring scour depth.