Assessing climate change impacts on water balance in the Mount Makiling forest, Philippines

A statistical downscaling known for producing station-scale climate information from GCM output was preferred to evaluate the impacts of climate change within the Mount Makiling forest watershed, Philippines. The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on two scenarios (A1B and A2) from CGCM3 experiment. The annual precipitation change was estimated to be 0.1–9.3% increase for A1B scenario, and ?3.3 to 3.3% decrease/increase for the A2 scenario. Difference in the mean temperature between the present and the 2080s were predicted to be 0.6–2.2°C and 0.6–3.0°C under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. The water balance showed that 42% of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into streamflow, and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events leading to high evaporation losses, and decrease in streamflow, while groundwater flow appeared unaffected. A study on the changes in monthly water balance provided insights into the hydrologic changes within the forest watershed system which can be used in mitigating the effects of climate change.     

Interaction of muscovite (0 0 1) with Pu bearing solutions at pH 3 through ex-situ observations

The interaction of Pu³⁺ bearing solutions with the muscovite (0 0 1) basal plane is explored using a combination of ex-situ approaches including alpha-counting, to determine the Pu³⁺ adsorption isotherm, and X-ray reflectivity (XR) and resonant anomalous X-ray reflectivity (RAXR), to probe the interfacial structure and Pu-specific distribution, respectively. Pu uptake to the muscovite (0 0 1) surface from Pu³⁺ solutions in a 0.1 M NaClO₄ background electrolyte at pH 3 follows an approximate Langmuir isotherm with an apparent adsorption constant, K_app = 5 × 10⁴ M⁻¹, and with a maximum coverage that is consistent with the amount needed to fully compensate the surface charge by trivalent Pu. The XR results show that the muscovite surface reacted with a 10⁻³ M Pu³⁺ solution (at pH 3 with 0.1 M NaClO₄) and dried in the ambient environment, maintains a 30-40 Å thick layer, indicating the presence of a residual hydration layer (possibly including adventitious carbon). The RAXR results indicate that Pu sorbs on the muscovite surface with an intrinsically broad distribution with an average height of 18 Å, substantially larger than heights expected for any specifically adsorbed inner- or outer-sphere complexes. These results are discussed in the context of recent studies of cation adsorption trends on muscovite and the possible roles of Pu hydrolysis species in controlling the Pu-muscovite interactions.     

Field geology on the Moon: Some lessons learned from the exploration of the Haughton impact structure, Devon Island, Canadian High Arctic

With the prospect of humans returning to Moon by the end of the next decade, considerable attention is being paid to technologies required to transport astronauts to the lunar surface and then to be able to carry out surface science. Recent and ongoing initiatives have focused on scientific questions to be asked. In contrast, few studies have addressed how these scientific priorities will be achieved. In this contribution, we provide some of the lessons learned from the exploration of the Haughton impact structure, an ideal lunar analogue site in the Canadian Arctic. Essentially, by studying how geologists carry out field science, we can provide guidelines for lunar surface operations. Our goal in this contribution is to inform the engineers and managers involved in mission planning, rather than the field geology community. Our results show that the exploration of the Haughton impact structure can be broken down into 3 distinct phases: (1) reconnaissance; (2) systematic regional-scale mapping and sampling; and (3) detailed local-scale mapping and sampling. This break down is similar to the classic scientific method practiced by field geologists of regional exploratory mapping followed by directed mapping at a local scale, except that we distinguish between two different phases of exploratory mapping. Our data show that the number of stops versus the number of samples collected versus the amount of data collected varied depending on the mission phase, as does the total distance covered per EVA. Thus, operational scenarios could take these differences into account, depending on the goals and duration of the mission. Important lessons learned include the need for flexibility in mission planning in order to account for serendipitous discoveries, the highlighting of key “science supersites” that may require return visits, the need for a rugged but simple human-operated rover, laboratory space in the habitat, and adequate room for returned samples, both in the habitat and in the return vehicle. The proposed set of recommendations ideally should be tried and tested in future analogue missions at terrestrial impact sites prior to planetary missions.     

HYTEC results of the MoMas reactive transport benchmark

A specific benchmark has been developed by the French research group MoMas in order to improve numerical solution methods applied by reactive transport models, i.e., codes that couple hydrodynamic flow and mass transport in porous media with geochemical reactions. The HYTEC model has been applied to this benchmark exercise, and this paper summarizes some of the principal results. HYTEC is a general-purpose code, applied by industrials and research groups to a wide variety of domains, including soil pollution, nuclear waste storage, cement degradation, water purification systems, storage of CO₂, and valorization of stabilized wastes. The code has been applied to the benchmark test-cases without any specific modification. Apart from the benchmark imposed output, additional information is provided to highlight the behavior of HYTEC specifically and the simulation results in particular.     

Alternative water resources in granitic rock: a case study from Kinmen Island,Taiwan

Kinmen Island is a small, tectonically stable, granitic island that has been suffering from a scarcity of fresh water resources due to excessive annual evapotranspiration over annual precipitation. Recent studies further indicate that shallow (0–70 m) sedimentary aquifers, the major sources of groundwater supply, have already been over-exploited. Therefore, this preliminary study is to investigate the existence of exploitable water resources that can balance the shortage of fresh water on this island. Site characterization data are obtained from island-wide geophysical surveys as well as small-scale tests performed in a study area formed by three deep (maximum depth to 560 m) vertical boreholes installed in mid-east Kinmen northeast to Taiwu Mountain. Vertical fracture frequency data indicate that the rock body is fractured with a spatially correlated pattern, from which three major fracture zones (depths 0–70, 330–360, and below 450 m) can be identified. Geologic investigations indicate that the deepest fracture zone is caused by the large-scale, steeply dipping Taiwushan fault. This fault may have caused a laterally extensive low-resistivity zone, a potential fractured aquifer, near Taiwu Mountain. The middle fracture zone is induced by the Taiwushan fault and intersects the fault approximately 21 m southeast of the study area below a depth of 350 m. Slug testing results yield fracture transmissivity varying from 4.8 × 10⁻⁷ to 2.2 × 10⁻⁴ m²/s. Cross-hole tests have confirmed that hydraulic connectivity of the deeper rock body is controlled by the Taiwushan fault and the middle fracture zone. This connectivity may extend vertically to the sedimentary aquifers through high-angle joint sets. Despite the presence of a flow barrier formed by doleritic dike at about 300 m depth, the existence of fresh as well as meteoric water in the deeper rock body manifests that certain flow paths must exist through which the deeper fractured aquifers can be connected to the upper rock body. Therefore, groundwater stored within the Taiwushan fault and the associated low-resistivity zone can be considered as additional fresh water resources for future exploitation.     

Origin of the patchy emission pattern at the ZERT CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> release test

A numerical experiment was carried out to test whether the patchy CO₂ emission patterns observed at the Zero Emissions Research and Technology release facility are caused by the presence of packers that divide the horizontal injection well into six CO₂-injection zones. A three-dimensional model of the horizontal well and cobble–soil system was developed and simulations using TOUGH2/EOS7CA were carried out. Simulation results show patchy emissions for the seven-packer (six-injection-zone) configuration of the field test. Numerical experiments were then conducted for the cases of 24 packers (23 injection zones) and an effectively infinite number of packers. The time to surface breakthrough and the number of patches increased as the number of packers increased suggesting that packers and associated along-pipe flow are the origin of the patchy emissions. In addition, it was observed that early breakthrough occurs at locations where the horizontal well pipe is shallow and installed mostly in soil rather than the deeper cobble. In the cases where the pipe is installed at shallow depths and directly in the soil, higher pipe gas saturations occur than where the pipe is installed slightly deeper in the cobble. It is believed this is an effect mostly relevant to the model rather than the field system and arises through the influence of capillarity, permeability, and pipe elevation of the soil compared to the cobble adjacent to the pipe.     

The effect of the variation of river water levels on the estimation of groundwater recharge in the Hsinhuwei River,Taiwan

Land subsidence is a serious problem in Taiwan’s Yunlin area due to groundwater overpumping. There are safety risks in the high-speed railway structures in the areas of Siluo, Huwei, Tuku, and Yuanchang towns that run from north to south in the Yunlin area. Therefore, it is important to increase the groundwater recharge and to remedy the land subsidence in this area. The purpose of this study is to use the stream-flow estimation model (SF) and the groundwater flow numerical software MODFLOW (MF) to estimate the stream infiltration with consideration to the variation of the river water level in the Hsinhuwei River. The Ferris analytical model (FA) and MF are used to estimate the increased stream infiltration after the water level of the river rises. The hydraulic parameters required for each model are obtained from field observations and laboratory experiments. The results indicate that the assessment of the stream infiltration obtained through the SF and MF models are 264.2 × 10⁴ and 170.9 × 10⁴ m³/year, respectively. When the river water level increases by about 2.5 m, the annual stream infiltration obtained through the FA and MF models significantly increases by 31.6 × 10⁴ and 26.4 × 10⁴ m³/year, respectively. Taken together, the stream storages estimated using these two models indicate that an increasing efficiency of groundwater recharge is within the range of 10.0–18.5%.     

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Climate strongly affects energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Washington State (WA). We evaluate potential effects of climate change on the seasonality and annual amount of PNW hydropower production, and on heating and cooling energy demand. Changes in hydropower production are estimated by linking simulated streamflow scenarios produced by a hydrology model to a simulation model of the Columbia River hydro system. Changes in energy demand are assessed using gridded estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) which are then combined with population projections to create energy demand indices that respond both to climate, future population, and changes in residential air conditioning market penetration. We find that substantial changes in the amount and seasonality of energy supply and demand in the PNW are likely to occur over the next century in response to warming, precipitation changes, and population growth. By the 2040s hydropower production is projected to increase by 4.7–5.0% in winter, decrease by about 12.1–15.4% in summer, with annual reductions of 2.0–3.4%. Larger decreases of 17.1–20.8% in summer hydropower production are projected for the 2080s. Although the combined effects of population growth and warming are projected to increase heating energy demand overall (22–23% for the 2020s, 35–42% for the 2040s, and 56–74% for the 2080s), warming results in reduced per capita heating demand. Residential cooling energy demand (currently less than one percent of residential demand) increases rapidly (both overall and per capita) to 4.8–9.1% of the total demand by the 2080s due to increasing population, cooling degree days, and air conditioning penetration.     

Desert environments: landscapes and stratigraphy

It is common to think of hot deserts, i.e. hot arid or dry lands, as areas of little rain situated in the middle parts of the world, that are simply 'just there'. However, most of the world's deserts have a long geological history, sometimes of 50 million years or more and ways have been developing for some time now, particularly from geomorphological studies, of not only erecting the law of superposition of strata for the desert but also 'absolute' dating. The authors have often worked commercially in deserts world-wide but their recent experiences in the Oman have brought home to them the excellent work that has been going on in the last two or three decades in evaluating the geological history of deserts. The Oman experience is described in a feature in the next issue.