Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble,ocean coupled ensemble,and GloSea5

This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system (EPSG) and ocean-atmosphere coupledEPSG) and KMA operational seasonal prediction system, the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The main motivation is to investigate whether the ensemble NWP system can provide advantage over the existing seasonal prediction system for the extended medium-range forecast (30 days) even with putting extra resources in extended integration or coupling with ocean with NWP system. Two types of evaluation statistics are examined: the basic verification statistics - the anomaly correlation and RMSE of 500-hPa geopotential height and 1.5-meter surface temperature for the global and East Asia area, and the other is the Real-time Multivariate Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices (RMM1 and RMM2) - which is used to examine the MJO prediction skill. The MJO is regarded as a main source of forecast skill in the tropics linked to the mid-latitude weather on monthly time scale. Under limited number of experiment cases, the coupled NWP extends the forecast skill of the NWP by a few more days, and thereafter such forecast skill is overtaken by that of the seasonal prediction system. At present stage, it seems there is little gain from the coupled NWP even though more resources are put into it. Considering this, the best combination of numerical product guidance for operational forecasters for an extended medium-range is extension of the forecast lead time of the current ensemble NWP (EPSG) up to 20 days and use of the seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) forecast thereafter, though there exists a matter of consistency between the two systems.     

The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000–2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden–Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.     

The relation between Cu/Au ratio and formation depth of porphyry-style Cu–Au ± Mo deposits

Constraints on gold and copper ore grades in porphyry-style Cu–Au ± Mo deposits are re-examined, with particular emphasis on published fluid pressure and formation depth as indicated by fluid inclusion data and geological reconstruction. Defining an arbitrary subdivision at a molar Cu/Au ratio of 4.0 × 10⁴, copper–gold deposits have a shallower average depth of formation (2.1 km) compared with the average depth of copper–molybdenum deposits (3.7 km), based on assumed lithostatic fluid pressure from microthermometry. The correlation of Cu/Au ratio with depth is primarily influenced by the variations of total Au grade. Despite local mineralogical controls within some ore deposits, the overall Cu/Au ratio of the deposits does not show a significant correlation with the predominant type of Cu–Fe sulfide, i.e., chalcopyrite or bornite. Primary magma source probably contributes to metal endowment on the province scale and in some individual deposits, but does not explain the broad correlation of metal ratios with the pressure of ore formation. By comparison with published experimental and fluid analytical data, the observed correlation of the Cu/Au ratio with fluid pressure can be explained by dominant transport of Cu and Au in a buoyant S-rich vapor, coexisting with minor brine in two-phase magmatic hydrothermal systems. At relatively shallow depth (approximately <3 km), the solubility of both metals decreases rapidly with decreasing density of the ascending vapor plume, forcing both Cu and Au to be coprecipitated. In contrast, magmatic vapor cooling at deeper levels (approximately >3 km) and greater confining pressure is likely to precipitate copper ± molybdenum only, while sulfur-complexed gold remains dissolved in the relatively dense vapor. Upon cooling, this vapor may ultimately contract to a low-salinity epithermal liquid, which can contribute to the formation of epithermal gold deposits several kilometers above the Au-poor porphyry Cu–(Mo) deposit. These findings and interpretations imply that petrographic inspection of fluid inclusion density may be used as an exploration indicator. Low-pressure brine + vapor systems are favorable for coprecipitation of both metals, leading to Au-rich porphyry–copper–gold deposits. Epithermal gold deposits may be associated with such shallow systems, but are likely to derive their ore-forming components from a deeper source, which may include a deeply hidden porphyry–copper ± molybdenum deposit. Exposed high-pressure brine + vapor systems, or stockwork veins containing a single type of intermediate-density inclusions, are more likely to be prospective for porphyry–copper ± molybdenum deposits.     

Comparative study on the fauna composition of intertidal invertebrates between natural and artificial substrata in the northeastern coast of Jeju Island

This study was carried out to learn about differences in the sessile macrobenthic fauna communities between the artificial and natural habitats. There were some differences in terms of species composition and dominant species and community structure between two habitat types. The dominant species include Pollicipes mitella and Granuilittorina exigua in natural rocky intertidal zones; Monodonta labio confusa, Ligia exotica, Tetraclita japonica in the artificial rocky intertidal zones. Among all the species, L. exotica and T. japonica occurred only in the artificial rocky intertidal zone. The results of cluster analysis and nMDS analysis showed a distinct difference in community structure between artificial and natural rocky intertidal zones. The fauna in the natural rocky intertidal zones were similar to each other and the fauna in the artificial rocky intertidal zones were divided depending on the slope of the substratum. In the case of a sloping tetrapod, M. labio confusa and P. mitella were dominant, but at the vertical artificial seawall, Cellana nigrolineata, L. exotica T. japonica were dominant. The analysis of the species presented in natural and artificial rocky intertidal areas showed the exclusive presence of 10 species on natural rocks and 12 species on artificial rocks. The species in the natural rocky intertidal area included mobile gastropods and cnidarians (i.e. rock anemones), and the species in the artificial rocky intertidal area mostly included non-mobile attached animals. The artificial novel structure seems to contribute to increasing the heterogeneity of habitats for marine invertebrate species and an increase the species diversity in rocky coastal areas.     

Hydrological modelling uncertainty analysis for different flow quantiles: a case study in two hydro-geographically different watersheds

This study focuses on analysis of hydrological model parameter uncertainty at varying sub-basin spatial scales. It was found that the variation in sub-basin spatial scale had little influence on the entire flow simulations. However, the different sub-basin spatial scales had a significant impact on the reproduction of the flow quantiles. The coarser sub-basin spatial scale provided a better coverage of most prediction uncertainty in observations. However, the finer sub-basin spatial scale produced the best single simulation output closer to the observations. In general, the optimal sub-basin spatial scales (ratio to the entire watershed size) in the two test watersheds were found to be in the ranges 14–19% and 2–4% for good simulation of high and low flows, respectively. It is therefore worthwhile to put more effort into reproducing different flow quantiles by investigating an appropriate sub-basin spatial scale.     

Nonlinear estimation of spatial distribution of rainfall — An indicator cokriging approach

Indicator cokriging (Journel 1983) is examined as a tool for real-time estimation of rainfall from rain gage measurements. The approach proposed in this work obviates real-time estimation of real-time statistics of rainfall by using ensemble or climatological statistics exclusively, and reduces computational requirements attendant to indicator cokriging by employing only a few auxiliary cutoffs in estimation of conditional probabilities. Due to unavailability of suitable rain gage measurements, hourly radar rain fall data were used for both indicator covariance estimation and a comparative evaluation. Preliminary results suggest that the indicator cokriging approach is clearly superior to its ordinary kriging counterpart, whereas the indicator kriging approach is not. The improvement is most significant in estimation of light rainfall, but drops off significantly for heavy rainfall. The lack of predictability in spatial estimation of heavy rainfall is borne out in the integral scale of indicator correlation: peaking to its maximum for cutoffs near the median, indicator correlation scale becomes increasingly smaller for larger cutoffs of rainfall depth. A derived-distribution analysis, based on the assumption that radar rainfall is a linear sum of ground-truth and a random error, suggests that, at low cutoffs, indicator correlation scale of ground-truth can significantly differ from that of radar rainfall, and points toward inclusion of rainfall intermittency, for example, within the framework proposed in this work.     

The solubility of copper in high-temperature magmatic vapors: A quest for the significance of various chloride and sulfide complexes

We conducted experiments to determine the effect of various chemical components (NaCl, KCl, HCl, FeCl₂, H₂S, SO₂) on the solubility of Cu in single phase aqueous vapors at 1000 °C and 150 MPa. The experiments were conducted in Au₉₇Cu₃ alloy capsules buffering Cu activities at 0.01. The volatile phase was sampled at run conditions by the entrapment of synthetic fluid inclusions in quartz. To test if the volatile phase had reached equilibrium before the isolation of the inclusions by fracture healing, we trapped two inclusion generations, one in an initially prefractured chip and another in a quartz chip that was fractured in situ during the experiments. The synthetic fluid inclusions were subsequently analyzed by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. In pure water, the apparent solubility of Cu is below the limits of detection of 6 μg/g, showing the low stability of hydroxy Cu complexes at our experimental conditions. The presence of alkali chlorides supports modest Cu solubility likely in the form of NaCuCl₂ and KCuCl₂ complexes. In the H₂O-H₂S (+SiO₂ and Au₉₇Cu₃) system at an fH₂S of 10.4 MPa the apparent solubility of Cu is lower by a factor of ∼5 than that in a S-free 0.5 m NaCl solution, showing that copper hydrosulfide complexes are only moderately stable at these conditions. Addition of 4.7 mol% of sulfur to the H₂O-NaCl system at an fO₂ of 0.4 log units below the Ni-NiO buffer, yielding dominantly H₂S species, results in only a moderate increase in apparent Cu solubility, which diminishes in the presence of HCl. The addition of KCl results in a strong increase of apparent Cu solubility in the presence of H₂S. The solubility of Cu increases with the fugacity of oxygen in both the H₂O-NaCl and the H₂O-S-NaCl system following an approximately fourth root relationship as expected based on the stoichiometry of the involved redox reactions. Replacement of NaCl by FeCl₂ exerted only a minor effect on the Cu solubility.Results of our experiments, combined with thermochemical data obtained by ab initio quantum chemical calculations, suggest dissolution of Cu dominantly as Na(/K)CuCl₂, Na(/K)Cu(HS)_2, H₂SCuHS, and Na(/K)ClCuHS, the relative abundance of which are dictated by the H₂S/total chloride and HCl/alkali chloride ratios.     

Methods for ultimate limit state assessment of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures: Part I—Unstiffened plates

The present paper is Part I of a series of three papers prepared by the authors on the methods useful for ultimate limit state assessment of marine structures, that have been developed in the literature during the last few decades. It is considered that such methods are now mature enough to enter day-by-day design and strength assessment practice. The aims of the three papers are to conduct some benchmark studies of such methods on ultimate limit state assessment of (unstiffened) plates, stiffened panels, and hull girders of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures, using some candidate methods such as ANSYS nonlinear finite element analysis (FEA), DNV PULS, ALPS/ULSAP, ALPS/HULL, and IACS common structural rules (CSR) methods. As an illustrative example, an AFRAMAX-class hypothetical double hull oil tanker structure designed by CSR method is studied. In the present paper (Part I), the ultimate limit state assessment of unstiffened plates under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure loads is emphasized using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and their resulting computations are compared. Part II will deal with methods for the ultimate limit state assessment of stiffened panels under combined biaxial compression and lateral pressure using ANSYS, DNV PULS, and ALPS/ULSAP methods, and Part III will treat methods for the progressive collapse analysis of the hull structure using ANSYS, ALPS/HULL, and IACS CSR methods.     

Surface albedo from the geostationary Communication,Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS)/Meteorological Imager (MI) observation system

The surface albedo is an essential climate variable that is considered in many applications used for predicting climate and understanding the mechanisms of climate change. In this study, surface albedo was estimated using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model based on Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite/Meteorological Imager data. Geostationary orbiting satellite data are suitable for a level 2 product like albedo, which requires a synthetic process to estimate. The authors modified established methods to consider the geometry of the solar-surface-sensor of COMS/MI. Of note, the viewing zenith angle term was removed from the kernel integration used for estimating spectral albedo. Finally, the spectral (narrow) albedo was converted into the broadband albedo with shortwave length (approximately 0.3–2.5 μm). This study determined conversion coefficients using only one spectral albedo of visible channel. The estimated albedo had a relatively high correlation with Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre/Vegetation and low unweighted error values specific for land types or times. The validation results show that estimated albedo has a root mean square error of 0.0134 at Jeju flux site that indicates accuracy similar to that of other satellite-based products.